Would a Republican win in CA 2021 be an even bigger upset than MA 2010 or AL 2017

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Honestly, yes

[Non Swing Voter]

Yes, particularly because it's a huge state so it's harder to have a fluke election. 

[dkxdjy]

I'd actually say no since there have been recent statewide elections that were somewhat close in CA but not in AL

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not necessarily because the situation of it being a recall makes it a fairly different circumstance, especially when there isn't really a viable Democratic alternative to Newsom for question two.

[Rjjr77]

Honestly, yes

Bigger than Both. Massachusetts in 10 wasn't that big because of how bad the opponent was, Same for Alabama.

This would be super interesting. People approve of Newsome, but they don't particularly LIKE him. So it would be a test of would they vote?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Yes in that California is just so big that it really would take a series of one-in-a-million events to happen again. For example, this whole thing likely never happens if Newsom ordered takeout the day the pandemic-influenced extension period started for gathering signatures.

No in that anyone aware of the voting patterns (or lack thereof) of California Democrats in odd-year elections shouldn't be surprised at the narrower-than-usual margins in the polls/likely results.

[TodayJunior]

Hands down “Yes” bc it is the heaviest lift (in terms of raw votes) for the gop to convince a huge chunk of Dems to vote for the opposite party. What do they have a 2/1 disadvantage? I mean it’s California, the belly of the beast of progressive politics. I just cannot conceive of such an ideologically opposite candidate of the state actually winning.

Massachusetts at least has a history of voting for opposite party office holders (gov), so I don’t consider them monolithically Democrat across the board. The Republicans there are very moderate to liberal aren’t they?

Alabama was just a giant fluke that required everything to go right for Jones. Also, he was a moderate Democrat running against a well-known sleazy accused pedophile

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Elder isn't gonna be Gov, Newsom had the Bay Area as well as Southern Cali, Elder only has Southern Cali, it's not enough

[Person Man]

California is even more ideologically homogeneous than Alabama, Newsom isn’t a child molester, and California is huge. It should be a wake up call that the Democratic Party has to change to win if Newsom loses.

[dw93]

If you were to ask me as recently as a month ago I would've said yes. That said, with CA state Dems starting to panic due to potential low turnout among Democrats, I now say no.

[Chips]

If you were to ask me as recently as a month ago I would've said yes. That said, with CA state Dems starting to panic due to potential low turnout among Democrats, I now say no.

Yeah, all of the recent polling could've had a better outlook for the governor. There's definitely a lot of GOP enthusiasm and a lot I think are beginning to see it. Therefore, I don't really think this would qualify as a bigger upset.

[AndyHogan14]

No, because a Republican could "win" the second question with a tiny plurality with 10-20% of the vote. If the Republicans won a one-on-one election in California, yes, it would be a bigger upset but that is not what we have here.

[Figueira]

Yes if we're comparing it to actual polling, but no if we're talking about general circumstances surrounding the respective races.

[bayareabay]

Hands down “Yes” bc it is the heaviest lift (in terms of raw votes) for the gop to convince a huge chunk of Dems to vote for the opposite party. What do they have a 2/1 disadvantage? I mean it’s California, the belly of the beast of progressive politics. I just cannot conceive of such an ideologically opposite candidate of the state actually winning.

Massachusetts at least has a history of voting for opposite party office holders (gov), so I don’t consider them monolithically Democrat across the board. The Republicans there are very moderate to liberal aren’t they?

Alabama was just a giant fluke that required everything to go right for Jones. Also, he was a moderate Democrat running against a well-known sleazy accused pedophile

Sexual contact between Moore and a 14 year old would not be classified as pedophilia as she was over the age of 13.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Hands down “Yes” bc it is the heaviest lift (in terms of raw votes) for the gop to convince a huge chunk of Dems to vote for the opposite party. What do they have a 2/1 disadvantage? I mean it’s California, the belly of the beast of progressive politics. I just cannot conceive of such an ideologically opposite candidate of the state actually winning.

Massachusetts at least has a history of voting for opposite party office holders (gov), so I don’t consider them monolithically Democrat across the board. The Republicans there are very moderate to liberal aren’t they?

Alabama was just a giant fluke that required everything to go right for Jones. Also, he was a moderate Democrat running against a well-known sleazy accused pedophile

Sexual contact between Moore and a 14 year old would not be classified as pedophilia as she was over the age of 13.

Let's not get into that "bUt ItS hEbEPhIlIa" thing, its deplorable nevertheless and I don't see much difference in separating the terms given that "pedophile" is generally used for all the chronophilias.

[LabourJersey]

Yes if we're comparing it to actual polling, but no if we're talking about general circumstances surrounding the respective races.

[Schiff for Senate]

Bigger than AL in 2017, because there there was a good, logical reason for true Christian conservatives to back Jones, but smaller than MA in 2010, because that was completely and totally random and out of the blue. It's kind of like comparing LA02 in 2008 to MN08 in 2010 - the first was somewhat expected because of a scandal-ridden candidate from the party that normally wins, but the second was a total upset.