Could Tom DeLay save the House?
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  Could Tom DeLay save the House?
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Poll
Question: Pick a tossup: Who will in FL-22?
#1
Rep. Clay Shaw (R)
 
#2
Rep. Ron Klein (D)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 12

Author Topic: Could Tom DeLay save the House?  (Read 620 times)
MarkWarner08
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« on: September 26, 2006, 06:48:18 PM »

I know this sounds odd at first, but it appears that the Hammer may have once again helped the GOP. The Democrats are currently 15 seats away from reclaiming the lower chamber of Congress. 

House Majority Leader Tom Delay’s recent redistricting battle is a case study in gerrymandering. In 2002  he set up a Political Action Committee that illegally funded GOP State House candidates with money from business interests and contributions from lobbyist Jack Abramoff. 

After the GOP gained control of the State House, DeLay convinced the Republican Legislature  to pass an unprecedented mid-decade re-redistricting plan, reducing the number of  Texas Democrats in the state’s Congressional delegation from 17 to 10.  To accomplish his goal, DeLay damaged himself legally and politically. By 2006, both DeLay and Abramoff had been criminally charged on separate issues, but were both tied together by gerrymandering.


By manipulating the system, DeLay was able to squeeze 7 more House seats out of Texas. This almost doubled the "magic number" of seats Democrats need to take back the House.  DeLay has played the numbers game well in the past -- besting Democrats in close votes on Medicare and CAFTA. If Democrats pick up 13 or 14 seats, coming with breathing distance of the majority, they'll once again be able to place the blame on The Hammer.
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MarkWarner08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2006, 06:49:58 PM »

Ron Klein is a State Senator, not a Congressman, yet.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2006, 06:56:56 PM »

Seven more House seats in Texas from the redistricting of 2004? 

You need to get your math right, the Republicans only gained 5 seats in Texas (TX-01, TX-02, TX-10, TX-11, TX-24),  in 2004, and missed the six shot they created by not knocking off Edwards (TX-17).  That is unless you're counting their eliminating of Chris Bell (D) for Al Green (D) or the party switch of Ralph Hall from (D) to (R), which was going to happen regardless since he was an R anyway.
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MarkWarner08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2006, 07:02:52 PM »

Seven more House seats in Texas from the redistricting of 2004? 

You need to get your math right, the Republicans only gained 5 seats in Texas (TX-01, TX-02, TX-10, TX-11, TX-24),  in 2004, and missed the six shot they created by not knocking off Edwards (TX-17).  That is unless you're counting their eliminating of Chris Bell (D) for Al Green (D) or the party switch of Ralph Hall from (D) to (R), which was going to happen regardless since he was an R anyway.

Chris Bell is counted in the totals because he was forced to retire or run ina Majority Black district. Hall switched parties to avoid be gerrymandered out of the House. Seven is the correct number, in my opinion.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2006, 07:40:58 PM »

Seven more House seats in Texas from the redistricting of 2004? 

You need to get your math right, the Republicans only gained 5 seats in Texas (TX-01, TX-02, TX-10, TX-11, TX-24),  in 2004, and missed the six shot they created by not knocking off Edwards (TX-17).  That is unless you're counting their eliminating of Chris Bell (D) for Al Green (D) or the party switch of Ralph Hall from (D) to (R), which was going to happen regardless since he was an R anyway.

Chris Bell is counted in the totals because he was forced to retire or run ina Majority Black district. Hall switched parties to avoid be gerrymandered out of the House. Seven is the correct number, in my opinion.

Uh, Hall didn't switch because he was going to be gerrymandered out.  He always said he would stay in the Democratic party after 1994, as long as it didn't hurt his constituents.  He left because a) the Republicans removed some spending measures for his CD (directly affecting the reason above) and b) because the Democratic caucus was too busy throwing barbs at the President, who is one of his very good friends.

And I'm still confused how replacing one Democrat with another Democrat leads to a Republican gain affecting the rest of the House.  You do realize there are 11 Democratic House members from Texas, not 10, unless you want to believe like fernie, that Cuellar is a Republican in Democrat clothing.
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MarkWarner08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2006, 10:22:23 PM »

Seven more House seats in Texas from the redistricting of 2004? 

You need to get your math right, the Republicans only gained 5 seats in Texas (TX-01, TX-02, TX-10, TX-11, TX-24),  in 2004, and missed the six shot they created by not knocking off Edwards (TX-17).  That is unless you're counting their eliminating of Chris Bell (D) for Al Green (D) or the party switch of Ralph Hall from (D) to (R), which was going to happen regardless since he was an R anyway.

Chris Bell is counted in the totals because he was forced to retire or run ina Majority Black district. Hall switched parties to avoid be gerrymandered out of the House. Seven is the correct number, in my opinion.

Uh, Hall didn't switch because he was going to be gerrymandered out.  He always said he would stay in the Democratic party after 1994, as long as it didn't hurt his constituents.  He left because a) the Republicans removed some spending measures for his CD (directly affecting the reason above) and b) because the Democratic caucus was too busy throwing barbs at the President, who is one of his very good friends.

And I'm still confused how replacing one Democrat with another Democrat leads to a Republican gain affecting the rest of the House.  You do realize there are 11 Democratic House members from Texas, not 10, unless you want to believe like fernie, that Cuellar is a Republican in Democrat clothing.

My mistake. Thanks for the correction. I'll always defer to a Texan about matters concerning Texas Wink
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2006, 10:28:51 PM »

Seven more House seats in Texas from the redistricting of 2004? 

You need to get your math right, the Republicans only gained 5 seats in Texas (TX-01, TX-02, TX-10, TX-11, TX-24),  in 2004, and missed the six shot they created by not knocking off Edwards (TX-17).  That is unless you're counting their eliminating of Chris Bell (D) for Al Green (D) or the party switch of Ralph Hall from (D) to (R), which was going to happen regardless since he was an R anyway.

Chris Bell is counted in the totals because he was forced to retire or run ina Majority Black district. Hall switched parties to avoid be gerrymandered out of the House. Seven is the correct number, in my opinion.

Uh, Hall didn't switch because he was going to be gerrymandered out.  He always said he would stay in the Democratic party after 1994, as long as it didn't hurt his constituents.  He left because a) the Republicans removed some spending measures for his CD (directly affecting the reason above) and b) because the Democratic caucus was too busy throwing barbs at the President, who is one of his very good friends.

And I'm still confused how replacing one Democrat with another Democrat leads to a Republican gain affecting the rest of the House.  You do realize there are 11 Democratic House members from Texas, not 10, unless you want to believe like fernie, that Cuellar is a Republican in Democrat clothing.

My mistake. Thanks for the correction. I'll always defer to a Texan about matters concerning Texas Wink

No problem.  I promise to defer in all matters Oregon as well, because I confess to know little about the state's politics except for what I see through maps.  Smiley
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Bdub
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2006, 02:57:46 PM »

I believe Clay Shaw will win but it will be close.  Ron Klein seems to have more ads on t.v. at this time though.
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