Could the GOP adopt an anti-Israel position in the future?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

It seems elements of the Democratic Party are starting to be more anti-Israel (which is a good thing), but could it be the Republicans who do it instead?

[Girlytree]

The #AmericaFirst faction is already moving in that direction, if not already there. My guess is it will initially start with opposing foreign aid.

With that said though, there is absolutely ZERO chance of them taking a pro Palestine position like Tlaib and Omar.

Edit: actually, the AF faction is still rather pro Israel, so it’s not gonna happen anytime soon.

Even Paul Gosar who attended AFPAC isn’t gonna go full anti Israel.
https://mobile.twitter.com/DrPaulGosar/status/1410020232953954304

[TML]

They must first find a way to reduce the influence of the Israel lobby in the US. Currently they have shown little or no interest in reducing lobbying influence of any kind.

[CEO Mindset]

if only they would

[THG]

Outside of the Nick Fuentes types, there is NO ONE in the conservative movement who falls under this category.

If even Gosar (who attended a Fuentes conference) is pro-Israel, then I don't believe this will ever manifest into reality. Nor should it.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A lot of people don't understand how pro-Israel evangelical Christians are (as God promised Israel to the Jewish people* in the days of Moses), so, as long as evangelicals are a major part of the GOP coalition, I would say it is unlikely.

*That doesn't dispense the Jewish people of a need to accept Christ as their Savior.  But, fortunately, Messianic Judaism is a thing.

[RINO Tom]

No.  And THAT is a good thing.

[Gracile]

Not as long as evangelicals remain a major faction in their tent.

[Ferguson97]

No, they're never gonna hate Jews more than Muslims.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It all boils down to what the Democrats do. If the Democrats (somehow) support Israel the Republicans will go appropriately in the opposite direction.

[RINO Tom]

No, they're never gonna hate Jews more than Muslims.

You’re a consistent eye roll, and the sad part is it isn’t even ever trolling.

[Horus]

It all boils down to what the Democrats do. If the Democrats (somehow) support Israel the Republicans will go appropriately in the opposite direction.

Democrats already overwhelmingly support Israel. Yet the Republicans are somehow even more rabidly pro Israel.

[Hope For A New Era]

A party that is dominated by Evangelical Protestants, in a country that is dominated by Evangelical Protestants, will never be anti-Israel.

The party may become less pro-Israel as protectionist/isolationist sentiment continues to increase in the US (with "America First"-ism increasingly making its way now into the Democratic Party), but neither major party will ever be explicitly anti-Israel.

[President Johnson]

Maybe if there's ever a center-left Israeli government?

[Bismarck]

Anti-Israel? Nah. Less fetishistic towards it? Now that old Shelly Adelson is dead we can hope for it.

[Nickelodeon PAC]

What do we all think now?

MTG no longer supports Israel aid.

[WalterWhite]

The GOP will always be an extremely pro-Israel party because their base is overwhelmingly Evangelical Christians who view the preservation of Israel as necessary to bring about the Rapture.

[GAinDC]

The GOP will always be an extremely pro-Israel party because their base is overwhelmingly Evangelical Christians who view the preservation of Israel as necessary to bring about the Rapture.

This is all you need to know. They’ll never outflank the Dems from the left on this issue.

[Del Tachi]

Millennials in the evangelical church seem to have largely moved past dispensationalism, so Christian Zionism will (hopefully!) be less of a thing in the future.

[RINO Tom]

The GOP will always be an extremely pro-Israel party because their base is overwhelmingly Evangelical Christians who view the preservation of Israel as necessary to bring about the Rapture.

According to Pew, Republicans break down like this:

82% Christian
--> 57% Protestant
--> 21% Catholic
--> 4% Non-Trinitarian/Other Christian

Using Pews classifications, 38% of the GOP Christian total is "Evangelical Protestant."  And even that is generous, as multiple groups in their classification really are not "Evangelical" in any true sense and DEFINITELY do not believe in the Rapture, lol.  No Lutherans, Presbyterians, Episcopalians/Anglicans, Congregationalists, Continental Reformed, Methodists, etc. believe in the Rapture, so that takes it down to at MOST 34% of GOP voters could even maybe believe in the Rapture.

I'll be generous and give you the 34%, which is nowhere near an "overwhelming" majority (or even a majority at all), but I would also wager that a good 25%+ of Evangelicals do not believe in the Rapture.

The GOP will always be an extremely pro-Israel party because their base is overwhelmingly Evangelical Christians who view the preservation of Israel as necessary to bring about the Rapture.

This is all you need to know. They’ll never outflank the Dems from the left on this issue.

"From the left," lmao.

[WalterWhite]

The GOP will always be an extremely pro-Israel party because their base is overwhelmingly Evangelical Christians who view the preservation of Israel as necessary to bring about the Rapture.

According to Pew, Republicans break down like this:

82% Christian
--> 57% Protestant
--> 21% Catholic
--> 4% Non-Trinitarian/Other Christian

Using Pews classifications, 38% of the GOP Christian total is "Evangelical Protestant."  And even that is generous, as multiple groups in their classification really are not "Evangelical" in any true sense and DEFINITELY do not believe in the Rapture, lol.  No Lutherans, Presbyterians, Episcopalians/Anglicans, Congregationalists, Continental Reformed, Methodists, etc. believe in the Rapture, so that takes it down to at MOST 34% of GOP voters could even maybe believe in the Rapture.

I'll be generous and give you the 34%, which is nowhere near an "overwhelming" majority (or even a majority at all), but I would also wager that a good 25%+ of Evangelicals do not believe in the Rapture.

The GOP will always be an extremely pro-Israel party because their base is overwhelmingly Evangelical Christians who view the preservation of Israel as necessary to bring about the Rapture.

This is all you need to know. They’ll never outflank the Dems from the left on this issue.

"From the left," lmao.

The majority of Republican voters are certainly not Evangelical Christians, but the most steadfast supporters of the Republican Party (i.e. the Republican Party base) are. Republican candidates must align their social policies with those of Evangelical Christians if they want to have careers in Republican Party politics.

[Electric Circus]

There has always been a sizeable faction within the Republican Party that isn't fond of sending money to Israel.

Taking a strong position in that direction as a public official is high-risk and low-reward, so politicians don't embrace it unless they are odd ducks in safe districts (think Thomas Massie or Ron Paul) or past the point of caring about keeping the peace within the coalition.

I haven't seen anything from the GOP regarding Israel over the past few weeks that I can't imagine seeing from it ten, twenty, or thirty years ago. The biggest difference - and this is also true for Democrats - is that changes in media shine a light on every crank who wants to run a sideshow.

As far as Democrats are concerned, I do wonder whether there's enough going on at the grassroots level that their coalition politics are about to get more ugly. Maybe not at the national level, but in certain localities.

The ethnic/immigrant constituencies seem like a bigger concern for them than the left-wing activists who have had outsized visibility over the past decade or so of social-media-driven politics, an era which is rapidly coming to a close. Between the videos, locations, and organizations involved in most protests in support of Palestine, it's mostly the former who have been in the streets on this.

[RINO Tom]

The GOP will always be an extremely pro-Israel party because their base is overwhelmingly Evangelical Christians who view the preservation of Israel as necessary to bring about the Rapture.

According to Pew, Republicans break down like this:

82% Christian
--> 57% Protestant
--> 21% Catholic
--> 4% Non-Trinitarian/Other Christian

Using Pews classifications, 38% of the GOP Christian total is "Evangelical Protestant."  And even that is generous, as multiple groups in their classification really are not "Evangelical" in any true sense and DEFINITELY do not believe in the Rapture, lol.  No Lutherans, Presbyterians, Episcopalians/Anglicans, Congregationalists, Continental Reformed, Methodists, etc. believe in the Rapture, so that takes it down to at MOST 34% of GOP voters could even maybe believe in the Rapture.

I'll be generous and give you the 34%, which is nowhere near an "overwhelming" majority (or even a majority at all), but I would also wager that a good 25%+ of Evangelicals do not believe in the Rapture.

The GOP will always be an extremely pro-Israel party because their base is overwhelmingly Evangelical Christians who view the preservation of Israel as necessary to bring about the Rapture.

This is all you need to know. They’ll never outflank the Dems from the left on this issue.

"From the left," lmao.

The majority of Republican voters are certainly not Evangelical Christians, but the most steadfast supporters of the Republican Party (i.e. the Republican Party base) are. Republican candidates must align their social policies with those of Evangelical Christians if they want to have careers in Republican Party politics.

I mean, I absolutely disagree with this, and I partially think you guys repeat this because it gives you a comforting stereotype of the GOP that you can look down on, lol.  To this day, the GOP has quite literally never had a Presidential nominee who believed in the Rapture or creationism or was part of an Evangelical denomination.  Of the current GOP Senators, over 30% are Catholic.  Another 40% are Mainline Protestant.  Of the remaining "Evangelicals," there are multiple like Ron Johnson (WELS Lutheran) and Marsha Blackburn (PCA Presbyterian) who absolutely do not hold these types of stereotypical Evangelical views.

Are Evangelicals important?  Sure.  Do they influence how non-Evangelical Republicans have to run their elections?  Absolutely - just as any constituency in a party does.  However, I maintain it is patently false that a Republican running for office needs to adopt anything close to Evangelical theological stances to climb the ladder in the party.

[Vosem]

There are two trends at cross-purposes here, one of which is that the party is becoming more evangelical over time, and the other of which is that the party is becoming gradually more hostile to any government activity at all. I think it is hard to see it adopting an anti-Israel position -- almost all of the surge in support for Israel over the last 30 years has happened on the Republican side, and while opinion of Israel is (probably) no longer becoming more favorable, opinion of Palestine is continuing to become more unfavorable even at insane levels below 10%. But it may become in practice less friendly to Israel as it becomes more hostile to foreign aid at all.

Here is a chart, by year, of the following numbers, going by Edison Research polls:
Percent of the electorate which is evangelicals voting for the Republican nominee / percentage of the electorate voting for the Republican nominee / percentage of the Republican nominee's support which is evangelical:
1992: 10% / 38% / 26% of Republican voters are evangelical
1996: 11% / 41% / 27% of Republican voters are evangelical
2000: for some dumb reason unavailable
2004: 18% / 51% / 35% of Republican voters are evangelical
2008: 19% / 46% / 41% of Republican voters are evangelical
2012: 20% / 47% / 43% of Republican voters are evangelical
2016: 21% / 46% / 46% of Republican voters are evangelical
2020: 21% / 47% / 45% of Republican voters are evangelical

So it is maybe peaking? (I've discussed elsewhere that 2022 exit polls had a crash in identification as evangelical back to 2006-ish numbers, which I think is a one-time Dobbs-related effect, but maybe it is the worm turning and evangelicalism having hit a peak in society. The reason I doubt this is that it is continuing to grow in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, but then those are very different places from the United States). Otherwise, it's notable here that 2016 saw really unusual strength among evangelicals for Trump, while 2020 was more of a "normal" performance along the lines of McCain or Romney. (Evangelicals were a larger fraction of the electorate in 2020 than 2016, but 2016 might also have been a pre-Dobbs peak in support for Republicans; their two best years with this demographic are 2016 and 2022).

Here are the same numbers but for House elections in midterms, beginning with 2006 which CNN still has up:
2006: 17% / 44% / 39% of Republican voters are evangelical
2010: 19% / 52% / 37% of Republican voters are evangelical
2014: 20% / 51% / 39% of Republican voters are evangelical
2018: 20% / 45% / 44% of Republican voters are evangelical
2022: 20% / 51% / 39% of Republican voters are evangelical

Evangelicals probably turn out less in midterms, given that they're a relatively poor demographic. Interestingly, the fraction of the electorate that is Republican evangelicals did not really shrink in 2022, even as the fraction that is merely evangelical shrank for the first time in the 21st century. It really seems like a large number of people that don't identify with the politics of the movement simply left in a one-time exodus, rather than there being an actual decline.

It's also interesting that presidential elections have more Republican-evangelical electorates than midterms -- it makes sense socioeconomically, but it's another point in favor of Dobbs probably never again mattering as much as it did in the 2022 cycle.

[Vosem]

Outside of the Nick Fuentes types, there is NO ONE in the conservative movement who falls under this category.

If even Gosar (who attended a Fuentes conference) is pro-Israel, then I don't believe this will ever manifest into reality. Nor should it.

There are plenty of people against foreign aid (like Massie), but there is absolutely no one in elected Republican politics with an openly pro-Palestine position; while you don't have to be in favor of giving Israel money you more-or-less do have to think they should win in the abstract. Over the last two decades, the only Republican Congressman I can think of who voted in a way that implied sympathy to Palestine outright was Charles Boustany and maybe Amash -- who are both themselves assimilated Arab-Americans -- but neither of them ever talked about it in those terms.

Anyway, here's my post where I've written about this, and bold is my conclusion about where I think the party is likely to go:

My own impression is that among normies I've heard very little impression (in general, it feels like interest among normies peaked in like 2014 and is since down), but my online techbro circles have gone from "don't care, know nothing" to "rabidly pro-Israel". (Seeing this happen to people I met at a festival over the summer has been sort of funny).

I've kept tabs on these circles, and yeah, I've noticed the same thing. I think for many it's a proxy for broader hostility to cultural progressivism, which is the same reason they suddenly started caring a lot about transgender issues, and unlike other parts of the far-right they weren't radicalized early enough to be hostile to Israel from a right-wing perspective. A secondary factor is probably just that a lot of them are or work with Indians.

Otherwise, attitudes towards Israel on the far-right definitely do split between "nefarious ZOG trying to control America" and "outpost of Western enlightment against the barbarian hordes", with your circles being the latter (saw several posts applying race and IQ claims to Gaza to claim that the median Gazan is mentally challenged!)

Indians in the US are not that pro-Israel at all!

(Also, I really need to write out my response to your question in my AMA thread on whether I feel closer or more distant to the far-right, because this past summer I went to an event which was more-or-less a meet-up for my pretty specific brand of tech-libertarian ideology, and I thought the reactions we got from the hard-hard-right contingent were absolutely hysterical. Moldbug and his cult of a couple dozen people who follow him around to poetry readings walked out halfway through. This guy attempts to write a critique and ends up drowning in his own terrible self-esteem.)

Anyway, I think the first attitude is just, like, an absolutely unheard-of one in the real world. In polling of the GOP support for Israel maybe plateaued north of 75%, but favorables of the Palestinians are just still falling, to consistently below 10% for many years now, and even your very anti-establishment far-right people, like Matt Gaetz or (infamously) Madison Cawthorn make a point of being strongly in favor of the state. You do get people occasionally protesting the foreign aid, but this is always couched in some kind of universalist way (Ron Paul was against all foreign aid, and MTG wants to vote against an omnibus package because she hates Ukraine); actually supporting Palestine is, like, insanely taboo in any circle of the GOP. (Very very occasionally you get Arab-Americans who personally do -- Charles Boustany comes to mind -- but they never talk about it because 15 years ago it was already an insane third rail.)

In 10 years time or so I'm guessing we'll be like the UK with about a third of the country in each camp. A huge proportion of Israel lovers are geriatric. A lot of younger conservatives are anti Israel too, or at least wanna stop the funding.

I don't think these go together. Younger conservatives are more fiscon and it probably is true that more of them want to stop the funding, but they're also more evangelical and just less likely to come from a time when casual anti-Semitism was normal than older conservatives. In the Gallup polls support for Israel has maybe peaked, but support for Palestine has dropped to single-digits and still declining. My guess is that younger conservatives will demand ever more aggressive action from Israel while, yes, in practice being more ambivalent to continuing to fund them.