FL - St. Pete Polls: Biden +1 vs TRUMP

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Biden 48.0%
Trump 47.4%
Third party 2.9%
Undecided  1.6%


AUG 16-17, 2021
B+
St. Pete Polls https://floridapolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Poll-of-Rubio-vs.-Demings.pdf
2,068 RV


Rubio +2 vs Demings in Senate race.

[THG]

St Pete’s had Biden winning by 1 vs Trump in 2020, and had Gillum and Nelson winning by 5 or 6 in 2018.

I only have to see the Rubio vs Demings margin to know that this pollster is full of manure, however. There is no way in hell that Senate race is within 5 points.

[pbrower2a]

Most polls were messed up in 2020. Many likely voters ended up not voting because they died. Many votes that had been cast were disqualified due to death. This skewed heavily against Hispanics and African-Americans who were more likely, at least in 2020, to die of COVID-19.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So Trump+5 then? I can see that.

[NOVA Green]

In before anyone else says: : "DECIMALS"  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is always close but the Election is 500 and Prez Election is 1500 days away and we know from last time what happened

[Alben Barkley]

St Pete’s had Biden winning by 1 vs Trump in 2020, and had Gillum and Scott winning by 5 or 6 in 2018.

I only have to see the Rubio vs Demings margin to know that this pollster is full of manure, however. There is no way in hell that Senate race is within 5 points.

Well the Biden/Gillum/Scott results were only off by approximately 5 points in each case. And I would be careful about assuming the Rubio/Demings race couldn't be within 5 points. This is still Florida we are talking about, after all. It defied midterm trends in 2018; who's to say it couldn't defy them again in 2022? It seems unlikely at first glance, sure, as the state certainly leans R. But crazier things have happened, and a HELL of a lot of crazier things have happened in Florida!

And moreover, when was the last time a significant statewide race in Florida was NOT within 5 points? Nelson 2012???

[THG]

St Pete’s had Biden winning by 1 vs Trump in 2020, and had Gillum and Scott winning by 5 or 6 in 2018.

I only have to see the Rubio vs Demings margin to know that this pollster is full of manure, however. There is no way in hell that Senate race is within 5 points.

And moreover, when was the last time a significant statewide race in Florida was NOT within 5 points? Nelson 2012???

2016 Senate for one. Rubio won by 8.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is becoming part of blue wall just like AZ did, FL is in play with Val and Crist it has 40% Latinos and DeSantis screwed up by not mandating masks for kids in schools, they will be sent home anyways, not enough nurses

[DaleCooper]

Is Little Marco still unpopular among Trump supporters these days? The Senate race could be a situation of him appearing weaker than he actually will be when all those people that don't like the sounds of him end up voting straight-ticket Republican anyway.

[It’s so Joever]

St Pete’s had Biden winning by 1 vs Trump in 2020, and had Gillum and Nelson winning by 5 or 6 in 2018.

I only have to see the Rubio vs Demings margin to know that this pollster is full of manure, however. There is no way in hell that Senate race is within 5 points.

Your error is assuming polling biases don’t change from cycle to cycle.

[TodayJunior]

FL is becoming part of blue wall just like AZ did, FL is in play with Val and Crist it has 40% Latinos and DeSantis screwed up by not mandating masks for kids in schools, they will be sent home anyways, not enough nurses

Now that's just overkill, even for me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis still leads by 3 pts so  FL leans R

[Hollywood]

Marco Rubio is going to win the state by 6-10 points.  I don't even like that dude, but everyone else seems to think highly of him.  This poll is a mess.