WI-03: Kind retiring 🚨🚨🚨

[CookieDamage]

Likely R now

[walleye26]

Lean D—->Tilt R. Depends on redistricting. If Sauk, Iowa, Lafayette, Green, and Rock are added and Wood, Chippewa, Pierce, Pepin, Buffalo and Jackson are taken out then it should still be holdable for Dems.

[Gass3268]

Lean D—->Tilt R. Depends on redistricting. If Sauk, Iowa, Lafayette, Green, and Rock are added and Wood, Chippewa, Pierce, Pepin, Buffalo and Jackson are taken out then it should still be holdable for Dems.

https://twitter.com/Gassman3268/status/1425178237571899396?s=20

[walleye26]

Lean D—->Tilt R. Depends on redistricting. If Sauk, Iowa, Lafayette, Green, and Rock are added and Wood, Chippewa, Pierce, Pepin, Buffalo and Jackson are taken out then it should still be holdable for Dems.

https://twitter.com/Gassman3268/status/1425178237571899396?s=20

You had the exact map I was thinking.

[Tekken_Guy]

Lean D—->Tilt R. Depends on redistricting. If Sauk, Iowa, Lafayette, Green, and Rock are added and Wood, Chippewa, Pierce, Pepin, Buffalo and Jackson are taken out then it should still be holdable for Dems.

https://twitter.com/Gassman3268/status/1425178237571899396?s=20

One major issue though: Rock is Bryan Steil's home county.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The canary in the coalmine for the 2022 midterms, everyone. It will be safe R for the House.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The canary in the coalmine for the 2022 midterms, everyone. It will be safe R for the House.

It's gonna be 220(215 either way, so it's not like 2014/ where /Rs have 250 seats, D's can still get 218/217 seats and 52/48 Senate in 500 days, so

Which would set up a very interesting scenario Filibuster reform bipasses Sinema and Manchin, Tester is also a blue dog is he gonna permit Filibuster reform on DC statehood, we still have OH and NC as wave insurance but we need to see a poll

The pollsters have altered their models to 304 blue map since they got NC and FL wrong last time, that's why we're not seeing and D biased polls in NC like we did in 2020 with CUNNINGHAM easily winning

WI Gov and Sen and WI 3 are gonna be competitive, WI isn't losing a seat like in MI so D's can still win the set

[Mr. Illini]

Bustos and Kind both done. The end of an era and another nail in the coffin for Dems in the rural Midwest.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Bustos and Kind both done. The end of an era and another nail in the coffin for Dems in the rural Midwest.

Bustos' retirement isn't as consequential though since she is from a solid Democratic state with a solid Democratic legislature who can draw a map to make up for her. Kind represents a much worse situation in being from one of, if not the, swingiest states in the country, and with a legislature who will likely draw a map that inhibits Democrats as much as possible. 

[Utah Neolib]

Sad, but is he gonna run for senate?

[Spectator]

Lean D—->Tilt R. Depends on redistricting. If Sauk, Iowa, Lafayette, Green, and Rock are added and Wood, Chippewa, Pierce, Pepin, Buffalo and Jackson are taken out then it should still be holdable for Dems.

https://twitter.com/Gassman3268/status/1425178237571899396?s=20

In the real world, that has no shot of passing.

[Drew]

It’ll be interesting to see who runs to replace him.  On the Dem side, I wonder if Dana Wachs or Kathleen Vinehout would be interested in a comeback?  Or we could see a current state legislator such as Rep. Katrina Shankland or Sen. Jeff Smith.  Former Sen. Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling should be a no-go, as she became a lobbyist.

Not sure if there will be additional Republicans running now, depending on how much support Van Orden has consolidated.

[NewYorkExpress]

Kind probably saw that he'd lose this race, and that his polling showed him losing to Mandela Barnes in the senate primary.

Anyways, this race was Likely/Safe R with Kind, and it's automatically Safe R with him gone.

[Schiff for Senate]

Why?  At least run for Senate

Agreed; he can help win back the Senate seat for Democrats, and that's the only way Democrats can justify potentially losing a House seat. It is a blow, but one must remember that Kind is retiring for a reason - he barely won in this Trump district in 2020, and with 2022 likely to be a redder year (and redistricting still uncertain), he chose to avoid making the same mistake Collin Peterson did (though WI03 is way bluer than MN07). Still, a run for the senate will help boost Democrats' chances of winning back a crucial Senate seat. If he did run for the Senate it would have been a plus for Democrats, but retiring completely is a negative for them. On the other hand, some are reading a little too much into this:

This is not good. The fact that he's simply retiring as opposed to challenging Johnson tells me that the red wave is going to be bigger than we'd thought.

No, all it does is tell you that Ron Kind thinks the red wave is going to be big. And in all fairness, even without 2022 and redistricting this is a pretty reddish (Trump) district which he barely won in 2020. Even without a red wave in 2022, I can see Kind's crossover appeal (that is, Trump/Kind voters) shrinking enough to deliver him defeat. Kind was going to have an uphill fight in 2022 even if it wasn't a red year. And in any case, Kind is not the supreme authority on politics. I'm questioning your political judgement if you base your predictions and outlook on what Ron Kind is doing. Another possibility (though it is unlikely) is that Kind wants to actually just retire, and the fact that 2022 will be a red year is just a coincidence. And don't be too upset. A good Democrat can beat Johnson, and that Democrat doesn't necessarily have to be Ron Kind (though Kind would boost Democratic votes in Southwest WI which might prove crucial should the race turn out to be tight).

[Tekken_Guy]

It’ll be interesting to see who runs to replace him.  On the Dem side, I wonder if Dana Wachs or Kathleen Vinehout would be interested in a comeback?  Or we could see a current state legislator such as Rep. Katrina Shankland or Sen. Jeff Smith.  Former Sen. Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling should be a no-go, as she became a lobbyist.

Not sure if there will be additional Republicans running now, depending on how much support Van Orden has consolidated.

Brad Pfaff?

[Devils30]

Lean D—->Tilt R. Depends on redistricting. If Sauk, Iowa, Lafayette, Green, and Rock are added and Wood, Chippewa, Pierce, Pepin, Buffalo and Jackson are taken out then it should still be holdable for Dems.

https://twitter.com/Gassman3268/status/1425178237571899396?s=20

In the real world, that has no shot of passing.

Dems have leverage in redistricting to an extent. But getting a 2nd Milwaukee area seat might be a better play than risking a WI-3 that could trend redder anyway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kind retires and everyone say D's are doomed, Pelosi says Biden will get credit for infrastructure

Nate Silver has it a 304 map already and the blue wave can materialize in 500 days, this isn't 2014 where Rs had a cushion in the H and got 250 seats, Rs have to earn their way to Majority

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D—->Tilt R. Depends on redistricting. If Sauk, Iowa, Lafayette, Green, and Rock are added and Wood, Chippewa, Pierce, Pepin, Buffalo and Jackson are taken out then it should still be holdable for Dems.

https://twitter.com/Gassman3268/status/1425178237571899396?s=20

In the real world, that has no shot of passing.

Dems have leverage in redistricting to an extent. But getting a 2nd Milwaukee area seat might be a better play than risking a WI-3 that could trend redder anyway.

What, Nate Silver has Ds winning the Gov and Sen races, WI isn't losing a seat, I lived in IL guess what WI before Walker elected from 2003/2011 Jim Doyle as Gov and Russ Feingold as Sen, WI is D based battleground and isn't IA or OH

[AdamSarny]

State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski (D) should consider jumping from the crowded senate primary to running for this district instead. Eyeballing the map, I'm pretty sure she carried this district in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you live in WI or visited, the State needs an update on infrastructure it's old factory town just like Pittsburgh, Biden infrastructure plans builds back better Milwaukee and Pittsburgh

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

As for him not running for senate, I think he probably believes Rojo is retiring and that Gallagher will jump in. In that case, I don't see us winning no matter who we run. He has appeal to suburban whites and wcw. He's not a Trump hack but isn't so anti trump that he would turn off the base.

[Xing]

Kind probably would have lost, anyway. Long-term, Democrats hace a better chance of winning a different version of WI-01.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kind probably would have lost, anyway. Long-term, Democrats hace a better chance of winning a different version of WI-01.

.

There you go again WI Lean R, we had Gov Jim Doyle and Sen Russ Feingold and Prez Obama before Walker and Hillary was the only person to lose WI since 1988, WI is a D based battleground

Nate Silver right now predicts WI and PA to go D and he said OH, NC, IA and FL Senate can be in play with a blue wave, it's all on You tube Election are keeping up with 538

Johnson made outrageous comment's about protecting Proud boys and Insurrectionists

[Blair]

Doesn’t sound like someone ready to jump into a very long and ugly senate race.

[If my soul was made of stone]

There's no way to make the Third outright favorable for Dems anymore without either taking in Janesville, which draws Steil into mostly-alien turf, or splitting Dane County (which might annoy Pocan), neither of which will be on the table in the state's firmly Republican legislature. I once drew a Biden district that connected the core of the current Third with more of greater Madison and the three Lake Superior counties, but that would be abysmal COI and still only barely Democratic-leaning. I was hoping that Kind would stay on to keep this district on the table, but even he'd probably face an uphill race at this point.

At this point, the best hope for Democrats in the state to fight their awful geographic disadvantage is focusing on Green Bay and the Fox Cities.