WI-03: Kind retiring 🚨🚨🚨

[Meatball Ron]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1425169654465581057?s=21

[BoiseBoy]

WI-03 will absolutely flip in 2022 now.

[Meatball Ron]

WI-03 will absolutely flip in 2022 now.

I mean, it depends on redistricting; there’s a good chance the district in its current form won’t continue to exist. But yeah, either way, not good for Dems!

[Matty]

R+1, but I am sure Non Swing Voter and co will find a way to convince themselves it'll stay dem.

[Suburbia]

WI-03 will absolutely flip in 2022 now.

[SnowLabrador]

This is not good. The fact that he's simply retiring as opposed to challenging Johnson tells me that the red wave is going to be bigger than we'd thought.

[Minnesota Mike]

WI-03 will absolutely flip in 2022 now.

It is likely to flip (barring major unlikely changes to the map)) but there is nothing absolute about it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why?  At least run for Senate

[Meatball Ron]

WI Dems should push HARD for a third Dem leaning seat in redistricting. Evers should veto anything else, even a least change map that keeps this seat as Lean R. Let the courts draw the map - it very well may result in 6-2 anyway, but the swing justice is pretty moderate and has taken anti-gerrymandering stances in the past. In the very least it could result in a swing district or two that Dems could flip in a better environment. No point in letting the GOP just draw 6-2 when that’s the worst case scenario in a court battle anyway.

Edit: I completely understand that the current map is largely ungerrymandered // any compact map would likely result in 6-2 due to Dems’ inefficient distribution throughout the state (a few 80-20 D areas and a bunch of 60-40 R areas). I’m just saying there’s no reason for Evers to sign a 6-2 map when a court drawn map would result in the same thing or *maybe* something slightly better, but definitely not something worse. It’s not like Evers will face any political blowback for vetoing an R-drawn map.

[Gass3268]

Probably flips, but:
- No idea what's going to happen with redistricting
- Trump is the only Republican to win this district since it was drawn in 2011
- Democrats have a decent bench here
- This guy is currently the Republican candidate

[Skye]

Even without his retirement this seat would have probably been hard to hold for Dems in 2022.

Likely R I guess?

[lfromnj]

Probably flips, but:
- No idea what's going to happen with redistricting
- Trump is the only Republican to win this district since it was drawn in 2011
- Democrats have a decent bench here
- This guy is currently the Republican candidate

?
Scott Walker and Johnson both won it .

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Likely R.

[Mr.Phips]

Kind was probably gone anyway in 2022 considering he only won 51%-49% in 2020.  Almost impossible for redistricting to make the seat more Dem.

[lfromnj]

Kind was probably gone anyway in 2022 considering he only won 51%-49% in 2020.  Almost impossible for redistricting to make the seat more Dem.

Natural least change but fixing the minor gerrymandering would replace the Portage arm with counties surrounding Madison. IIRC moves it 0.1 left.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

What does this mean in regards to whether or not he will run for Senate?

[Gass3268]

Probably flips, but:
- No idea what's going to happen with redistricting
- Trump is the only Republican to win this district since it was drawn in 2011
- Democrats have a decent bench here
- This guy is currently the Republican candidate

?
Scott Walker and Johnson both won it .

My bad, got that confused with something else.

[Devils30]

WI Dems should push HARD for a third Dem leaning seat in redistricting. Evers should veto anything else, even a least change map that keeps this seat as Lean R. Let the courts draw the map - it very well may result in 6-2 anyway, but the swing justice is pretty moderate and has taken anti-gerrymandering stances in the past. In the very least it could result in a swing district or two that Dems could flip in a better environment. No point in letting the GOP just draw 6-2 when that’s the worst case scenario in a court battle anyway.

Edit: I completely understand that the current map is largely ungerrymandered // any compact map would likely result in 6-2 due to Dems’ inefficient distribution throughout the state (a few 80-20 D areas and a bunch of 60-40 R areas). I’m just saying there’s no reason for Evers to sign a 6-2 map when a court drawn map would result in the same thing or *maybe* something slightly better, but definitely not something worse. It’s not like Evers will face any political blowback for vetoing an R-drawn map.

The GOP also has to worry about losing the State Supreme Court race in 2023 and risk the court drawing a 4-4 map AND new state legislative boundaries.

If Dems get a third seat it might be more efficient to ask for a Milwaukee area one instead of Madison.

[beesley]

In terms of elections, this retirement is probably the most consequential, and whilst unsurprising on paper, I am genuinely surprised by this. Hopefully Van Orden doesn't win his primary - he would be one of the worst Reps.

[here2view]

Damn it

[Nyvin]

WI Dems should push HARD for a third Dem leaning seat in redistricting. Evers should veto anything else, even a least change map that keeps this seat as Lean R. Let the courts draw the map - it very well may result in 6-2 anyway, but the swing justice is pretty moderate and has taken anti-gerrymandering stances in the past. In the very least it could result in a swing district or two that Dems could flip in a better environment. No point in letting the GOP just draw 6-2 when that’s the worst case scenario in a court battle anyway.

Edit: I completely understand that the current map is largely ungerrymandered // any compact map would likely result in 6-2 due to Dems’ inefficient distribution throughout the state (a few 80-20 D areas and a bunch of 60-40 R areas). I’m just saying there’s no reason for Evers to sign a 6-2 map when a court drawn map would result in the same thing or *maybe* something slightly better, but definitely not something worse. It’s not like Evers will face any political blowback for vetoing an R-drawn map.

The GOP also has to worry about losing the State Supreme Court race in 2023 and risk the court drawing a 4-4 map AND new state legislative boundaries.

If Dems get a third seat it might be more efficient to ask for a Milwaukee area one instead of Madison.

Take the Waukesha portion out of WI-1 IMO and add more of Milwaukee.    I think the area that makes up WI-3 is probably gone for dems no matter what map is drawn (not including splitting Dane obviously).

[Spectator]

WI Dems should push HARD for a third Dem leaning seat in redistricting. Evers should veto anything else, even a least change map that keeps this seat as Lean R. Let the courts draw the map - it very well may result in 6-2 anyway, but the swing justice is pretty moderate and has taken anti-gerrymandering stances in the past. In the very least it could result in a swing district or two that Dems could flip in a better environment. No point in letting the GOP just draw 6-2 when that’s the worst case scenario in a court battle anyway.

Edit: I completely understand that the current map is largely ungerrymandered // any compact map would likely result in 6-2 due to Dems’ inefficient distribution throughout the state (a few 80-20 D areas and a bunch of 60-40 R areas). I’m just saying there’s no reason for Evers to sign a 6-2 map when a court drawn map would result in the same thing or *maybe* something slightly better, but definitely not something worse. It’s not like Evers will face any political blowback for vetoing an R-drawn map.

The GOP also has to worry about losing the State Supreme Court race in 2023 and risk the court drawing a 4-4 map AND new state legislative boundaries.

If Dems get a third seat it might be more efficient to ask for a Milwaukee area one instead of Madison.

Pretty hard to draw a Democratic-leaning Milwaukee suburban seat unless you go out of your way to give Democrats the most favorable parts and split a big part of Moore's district.  The current WI-03 is basically an auto-R gain, and likely was going to flip even with Kind running again.

It doesn't sound like Kind will run for Senate, but I guess he didn't close the door on it entirely. I think he's probably the only potential candidate who could beat Johnson.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It depends on whom is running WI Senate is gonna be competetive it's not over til it's over and so will the Governor race

[Pericles]

Sad news. Alone this could be a coincidence, it better not become a pattern across the country though.

[President Johnson]

Meh.

Tossup -> Lean Republican