NY GOV 2006: Gov. George Pataki vs. Eliot Spitzer

[Suburbia]

Gov. Pataki runs for an unprecented fourth term, Attorney General Eliot Spitzer runs against him. Who wins?

[TML]

Back then, Spitzer had built a reputation of going after Wall Street, and that resonated among many voters, especially since one overarching message from Democrats in 2006 was anti-corruption. In 2005, polls indicated that Pataki would likely have a tough time winning reelection in 2006, so Spitzer would still have been favored if he had faced Pataki.

[President Johnson]

Lmao, I just wanted to do exactly this question. I think it would have been a tossup that could go either way. Remember that in 2006 there was less polarization and some moderate Republican governors of blue states handily won reelection (see Arnie and Jodi Rell).

[Lord Admirale]

Wasn't Pataki pretty unpopular in his final term? I think Spitzer would pull it off.

[Continential]

Spitzer because he won by 40 points OTL. I can't see Pataki overcoming that.

[Fuzzy Bear]

2006 was a bodaciously Democratic year.  Pataki had faced less than top tier opponents in 1998 and 2002.  Pataki would likely have lost by 5 points minimum.  Spitzer would have been the strongest challenger Pataki ever faced.