What individual election result suggested that Clinton would win (user search)
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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: The Dowager Mod, Dereich)
  What individual election result suggested that Clinton would win (search mode)
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Author Topic: What individual election result suggested that Clinton would win  (Read 2809 times)
South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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Posts: 3,402


« on: December 01, 2021, 10:34:26 PM »

Miami Dade
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,402


« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2022, 07:00:16 PM »

Miami-Dade County. It's astonishing how the swings to Trump in the remainder of Florida were enough to outweigh Clinton's performance there, which was the best for a Democrat in half a century. And in 2020, Miami-Dade County swung the other way, helping to cost Biden the state.


Florida 2016 imo is very similar to Ohio 2004 where Both Clinton and Kerry performed amazingly  well for a democratic presidential candidate in their region of the state (NE OH for Kerry and SE FL for Clinton) but Bush and Trump swamped Kerry and Clinton in the rest of the state to win . A key part of their wins came from swing areas that were trending republican(SE OH and WWC Central Floridia) and that helped them win .




Only difference is that W needed OH to win reelection in 2004. Trump could have afforded to lose FL in 2016, as he would have won the election with 277 EVs. Which sounds pretty much insane in retrospect. I remember expecting a short night in 2016, that once FL is called for HRC, the election is pretty much said and done.

That's mathematically true, but FL was further to the right than WI/MI/PA in 2016, so if HRC was winning FL, she was likely winning those rust belt states as well.
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