What individual election result suggested that Clinton would win
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  What individual election result suggested that Clinton would win
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Author Topic: What individual election result suggested that Clinton would win  (Read 2783 times)
GregTheGreat657
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« on: August 07, 2021, 10:04:38 AM »

What individual election result suggested that Clinton would win?
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2021, 10:34:26 PM »

Miami Dade
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Solid4096
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« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2021, 04:28:58 AM »

Illinois
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2021, 09:10:17 AM »

Urban Kentucky, it threw off the NYT needle to Clinton +6ish for an hour or so.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: December 07, 2021, 09:12:48 AM »


IDK because the downstate R blowout increased dramatically vs. 2012
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: December 07, 2021, 09:56:59 AM »

GA being closer than 2012, perhaps even the AZ result.

Agree on Miami Dade, obviously.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #6 on: December 07, 2021, 03:15:56 PM »

I meant if you looked at the statewide result without context as to the areas where each candidate got their votes. Nobody expected Clinton to do anywhere near as well as she did in the Chicago Suburbs, and because of that, if all you had access to was the statewide result in Illinois, you would think that Clinton would have been able to win not just Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but also Ohio and Iowa.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2022, 01:13:19 AM »

Miami-Dade County. It's astonishing how the swings to Trump in the remainder of Florida were enough to outweigh Clinton's performance there, which was the best for a Democrat in half a century. And in 2020, Miami-Dade County swung the other way, helping to cost Biden the state.
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« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2022, 02:21:14 AM »

Miami-Dade County. It's astonishing how the swings to Trump in the remainder of Florida were enough to outweigh Clinton's performance there, which was the best for a Democrat in half a century. And in 2020, Miami-Dade County swung the other way, helping to cost Biden the state.


Florida 2016 imo is very similar to Ohio 2004 where Both Clinton and Kerry performed amazingly  well for a democratic presidential candidate in their region of the state (NE OH for Kerry and SE FL for Clinton) but Bush and Trump swamped Kerry and Clinton in the rest of the state to win . A key part of their wins came from swing areas that were trending republican(SE OH and WWC Central Floridia) and that helped them win .


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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2022, 09:40:19 AM »

Miami-Dade County. It's astonishing how the swings to Trump in the remainder of Florida were enough to outweigh Clinton's performance there, which was the best for a Democrat in half a century. And in 2020, Miami-Dade County swung the other way, helping to cost Biden the state.


Florida 2016 imo is very similar to Ohio 2004 where Both Clinton and Kerry performed amazingly  well for a democratic presidential candidate in their region of the state (NE OH for Kerry and SE FL for Clinton) but Bush and Trump swamped Kerry and Clinton in the rest of the state to win . A key part of their wins came from swing areas that were trending republican(SE OH and WWC Central Floridia) and that helped them win .




Only difference is that W needed OH to win reelection in 2004. Trump could have afforded to lose FL in 2016, as he would have won the election with 277 EVs. Which sounds pretty much insane in retrospect. I remember expecting a short night in 2016, that once FL is called for HRC, the election is pretty much said and done.
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2022, 05:20:59 PM »

There are so many places where Clinton seemingly over performed 2012 expectations: OC, SLC, Chicagoland, Houston, Miami, NOVA, ATL suburbs, etc. But still someone from 2012 should have seen some of these trends coming, especially seeing that her opponent was Donald Trump.

It still wouldn't take a political genius to connect the dots and see that her gains in major suburbs were probably counterweighted by her crashing in rural areas all over the country, which is what happened.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2022, 06:38:19 PM »

Chester Co., PA.
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Plankton5165
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« Reply #12 on: May 12, 2022, 08:52:20 AM »

I'd say Nevada and DC.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #13 on: May 12, 2022, 09:19:38 AM »
« Edited: May 12, 2022, 09:22:48 AM by Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 »


DC was always Titanium D, hardly an indicator for the national election.

Imho, HRC kind of underperformed in NV, just won the state by a margin of 2.4 pts, way less than Obama won in both of his elections.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #14 on: May 12, 2022, 04:18:44 PM »

Urban Kentucky, it threw off the NYT needle to Clinton +6ish for an hour or so.

Yeah, I was a bit scared seeing how much Trump was crushing Clinton statewide in Kentucky, but I still had hope seeing Clinton overperform in Louisville and Lexington, the false hope that she would overperfrom in suburbs enough to win the election.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2022, 03:46:08 PM »

Miami-Dade County. It's astonishing how the swings to Trump in the remainder of Florida were enough to outweigh Clinton's performance there, which was the best for a Democrat in half a century. And in 2020, Miami-Dade County swung the other way, helping to cost Biden the state.


Florida 2016 imo is very similar to Ohio 2004 where Both Clinton and Kerry performed amazingly  well for a democratic presidential candidate in their region of the state (NE OH for Kerry and SE FL for Clinton) but Bush and Trump swamped Kerry and Clinton in the rest of the state to win . A key part of their wins came from swing areas that were trending republican(SE OH and WWC Central Floridia) and that helped them win .




Only difference is that W needed OH to win reelection in 2004. Trump could have afforded to lose FL in 2016, as he would have won the election with 277 EVs. Which sounds pretty much insane in retrospect. I remember expecting a short night in 2016, that once FL is called for HRC, the election is pretty much said and done.

That would have been interesting.  Dems celebrating early only to lose everything in MI by the middle of the morning. I do think a lot more energy would have been spent on contesting MI in that scenario. It was closer by raw margin than GA 2020.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #16 on: September 05, 2022, 07:00:16 PM »

Miami-Dade County. It's astonishing how the swings to Trump in the remainder of Florida were enough to outweigh Clinton's performance there, which was the best for a Democrat in half a century. And in 2020, Miami-Dade County swung the other way, helping to cost Biden the state.


Florida 2016 imo is very similar to Ohio 2004 where Both Clinton and Kerry performed amazingly  well for a democratic presidential candidate in their region of the state (NE OH for Kerry and SE FL for Clinton) but Bush and Trump swamped Kerry and Clinton in the rest of the state to win . A key part of their wins came from swing areas that were trending republican(SE OH and WWC Central Floridia) and that helped them win .




Only difference is that W needed OH to win reelection in 2004. Trump could have afforded to lose FL in 2016, as he would have won the election with 277 EVs. Which sounds pretty much insane in retrospect. I remember expecting a short night in 2016, that once FL is called for HRC, the election is pretty much said and done.

That's mathematically true, but FL was further to the right than WI/MI/PA in 2016, so if HRC was winning FL, she was likely winning those rust belt states as well.
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sg0508
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2022, 09:10:06 PM »

Her performance in Miami was excellent, but it was overshadowed by Trump's unreal performance up in central Florida. 
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