AK - Alaska Survey Research: Murkowski +10 over Tshibaka in final round of RCV

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Will post the link when I find it.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1422272283809300486?s=21
https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1422270738992611328?s=21

[MT Treasurer]

Color me highly skeptical, but if Murkowski wins this even after Trump & Co. go all in on this race and conservatives coalesce around Tshibaka, it’s yet another sign that any Democratic operative who thinks the party ought to prioritize IA over AK should be fired.

[Vosem]

I can believe Murkowski 55-45 over Tshibaka in the final round, sure. What I struggle to believe is Murkowski 36-27 over Tshibaka in the first round; candidates to Murkowski's left won 24-25% of the vote in 2010/2016 and there isn't actually a whole lot of evidence that Murkowski has gained ground among Democrats.

Murkowski's win would look something like this, though: she'd have to keep the total vote for candidates left of her at least under 25% (under 20% to be safe), and the total vote for candidates right of her under 50% (under 45% to be safe) in the first round.

Like, this poll implies Murkowski winning an outright majority of Biden voters who show up in the first round, right? That's possible to believe after a campaign but tough to believe immediately.

[Skye]

They didn't poll Gross? Did he bow out?

[Meatball Ron]

Makes sense to me that Murkowski would beat Tshibaka in a one-on-one race, but the second poll is what's important - to gauge whether she'd make it to the final round. And unfortunately, as currently asked, the second poll is useless for actually figuring out if Murkowski would survive:

1. It polls two very similar far-right Rs (Tshibaka and Miller). We don't really have any reason to believe that there will be two prominent candidates like this, or that if there were, one wouldn't be able to coalesce most of the support. Obviously Tshibaka and Miller's combined total surpasses that of Murkowski.

2. Dems/Indys are likely to get a stronger candidate than Gray-Jackson, who would perform higher than 19% in the first round, further imperiling Murkowski by knocking her into third place. Particularly if Al Gross runs, who as Skye acknowledged, should have been polled

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Never trust any poll posted by a literal furry. So much degeneracy.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Never trust any poll posted by a literal furry. So much degeneracy.

shut

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Never trust any poll posted by a literal furry. So much degeneracy.

shut

Okay, fine. Or polls with 0% undecided.

[Skye]

poll posted by a literal furry

what

[beesley]

Never trust any poll posted by a literal furry. So much degeneracy.

It's been posted by Polling USA too, just to clarify.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Color me highly skeptical, but if Murkowski wins this even after Trump & Co. go all in on this race and conservatives coalesce around Tshibaka, it’s yet another sign that any Democratic operative who thinks the party ought to prioritize IA over AK should be fired.

Lol D's are gonna have 51 or 52 seats WI, Pa and GA goes to a Runoff Biden has the Exact same Approvals as he had on Election day 51/46% 291 blue wall Neutral Environment

Milwaukee and Pittsburgh badly needs an update on infrastructure

[MT Treasurer]

Never trust any poll

FTFY

[Left Wing]

They didn't poll Gross? Did he bow out?

He never even announced anything, it's just been rumors

[Pollster]

No undecideds means the race in all likelihood doesn't look like this, but still good to watch this pollster's next release for trends.