The Democrats win easily. For all the progressive complaints about the ticket, Sinema and Gabbard are roughly where the party is, and they're both Biden Democrats. Democrats would complain a lot but they'd come home in the end.
The Republican ticket would lose significant portions of the base when Trump says that traitor RINOs are even worse than Democrats and that everyone should just stay home or vote third party. Even if Trump is dead by then, people carrying on his legacy won't have forgotten that Romney and Cheney were some of his staunchest critics.
In what sense are they both “Biden Democrats” or “roughly where the party is”? Have you seen Sinema’s approval ratings among Democrats? Mark Kelly is both of those things and Sinema is no Mark Kelly.
In the sense that they endorsed him for president and have not dumped on him publicly, when he was the nominee or the president.
If they were the nominees, Democrats would come home to their ticket, and there would be no prominent Democratic voice trying to burn down the party to prevent their hated enemy from getting control over it. Not so for the Republicans.
