I think he'd be about 50/50, but I'd probably very slightly lean towards him losing, in part because PA Dems have a pretty decent bench. One data point worth considering is that Toomey ran ~0.6 points ahead of Trump in 2016, and Biden won PA by a point in 2020 (although direct comparisons aren't perfect because of different levels of third party voting).
Just quickly eye-balling the 2020 results in the PA suburbs, it looks the only district where congressional Republicans really ran ahead of Trump was in PA-1, where Fitzpatrick got 56.5% compared to Trump's 46.6%. As a PA suburbanite, my personal hope is that the type of voter who voted Biden/Fizpatrick would have realized that Toomey, unlike Fitzpatrick, is basically an average congressional Republican in terms of ideology (notwithstanding Toomey's occasionally centrist positions on social issues).
Actually congressional Republicans won the house popular vote in PA last year.
Well I wasn't arguing that they didn't, I was just saying that Fitzpatrick's district was the lone district where I saw a truly major gap between presidential and congressional results.
Moving on, here's a look at the difference in margins between the presidential and house races, with the presidential data coming from
Daily Kos:
District (w/Incumbent): House R overperformance
PA-1 (Brian Fitzpatrick-R): 18.9
PA-12 (Fred Keller-R): 5.6
PA-04 (Madeleine Dean-D): 5.0
PA-11 (Lloyd Smucker-R): 4.3
PA-10 (Scott Perry-R): 3.7
PA-15 (Glenn Thompson-R): 3.2
PA-06 (Chrissy Houlahan-D): 2.9
PA-13 (John Joyce-R): 2.6
PA-09 (Dan Meuser-R): 2.3
PA-14 (Guy Reschenthaler-R): 1.9
PA-05 (Mary Gay Scanlon-D): 1.7
PA-03 (Dwight Evans-D): 1.1
PA-07 (Susan Wild-D): 0.5
PA-17 (Conor Lamb-D): 0.4
PA-16 (Mike Kelly-R): 0.0
PA-02 (Brendan Boyle-D): -4.1
PA-08 (Matt Cartwright-D): -8.0
PA-18 (Mike Doyle-D): -8.4
What I take from this is that while House Republicans did relatively well running against Dem incumbents in the Philadelphia suburbs (PA-4 and PA-6 being the big ones), elsewhere incumbent members of Congress from both parties at least ran close to even with the top of the ticket. So Toomey's survival may have hinged on his ability to run closer to R incumbents than to Trump in Republican-held districts, although obviously he could have made up ground in other ways, e.g. by running even further ahead of Trump in the PA suburbs than House Rs did.
Poll
