Would Pat Toomney have been re-elected if he was up in 2020?
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  Would Pat Toomney have been re-elected if he was up in 2020?
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Question: Would Pat Toomey have won re-election in PA if his seat was up in 2020?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 44

Author Topic: Would Pat Toomney have been re-elected if he was up in 2020?  (Read 650 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: July 29, 2021, 01:21:08 PM »

Would Pat Toomey have won re-election if his seat was up in 2020? (And assuming he doesn't retire in this scenario.)
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TML
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« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2021, 01:49:02 PM »

Toomey's wins were mostly because of his strength in the Philadelphia suburbs. This area swung hard against Trump, and Trump would almost certainly not have been happy if Toomey attempted to put any distance between himself and Trump in an attempt to appeal to these suburbanites. This suggests that Toomey would probably have lost reelection if he ran a Trumpian campaign, but he would have lost renomination if he ran an insufficiently Trumpian campaign.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2021, 01:51:42 PM »

You know my mind says no, but then again, somehow Torsella lost to a nutjob (Stacey Garrity), despite Biden and Shapiro winning, so anything is possible.
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Lognog
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« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2021, 02:15:25 PM »

I'm torn, but I would say barely lose. He only outperformed Trump in 2016 by one point so that wouldn't have been enough to help him. I think the biggest question is who would be the challenger, but in the end I would say most of the PA bench could beat him
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2021, 02:35:09 PM »
« Edited: July 29, 2021, 02:52:03 PM by Mr. Kanye West »

No, he ran against Kate McGinty instead of Sestak and was reelected in a Hillary cycle the only one that can lose MI,vPA and WI narrowly to Gary Johnson

We have enough recruiting so we never have another McGinty debacle
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2021, 03:21:10 PM »
« Edited: July 30, 2021, 05:01:23 AM by Pericles »

Seems like statewide PA Republicans outran Trump by enough to win. Toomey did not overperform Trump in 2016 only because he made the 'mistake' of not saying who he was voting for so alienating some Trump voters.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2021, 03:28:25 PM »

I think he narrowly wins again. Downballot Republicans greatly outperformed Trump in 2020.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2021, 05:14:31 PM »

It would probably be even closer than in 2016. I can't say for sure, but I suppose with that being the case, if he faces a candidate better than McGinty (an easy feat) he might actually lose this time, especially in a slightly less favorable national environment.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2021, 06:10:25 PM »

How does Snowlabrador get that Toomey would win and Biden carried PA
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TDAS04
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« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2021, 06:11:47 PM »

Maybe by 0.3% or something.
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THG
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« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2021, 10:52:25 PM »

Downballot Republicans outperformed Trump greatly in a state like Pennsylvania, especially in suburban districts. I do believe that Toomey would still over-perform in the suburban parts of Philly and maybe even Pittsburgh enough to scratch by- ala Cornyn but obviously this race is much closer.
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2021, 10:07:39 AM »

150%

Joe Biden was literally signaling to suburban Philly Repubs that they could vote for him and a GOP Congress, and they did. Toomey would have won by 3 minimum.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #12 on: July 30, 2021, 10:32:23 AM »

Pretty easily due to the massive amount of ticket splitting present in 2020.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: July 30, 2021, 12:03:39 PM »
« Edited: July 30, 2021, 12:08:29 PM by Mr. Kanye West »

150%

Joe Biden was literally signaling to suburban Philly Repubs that they could vote for him and a GOP Congress, and they did. Toomey would have won by 3 minimum.
Biden won the state, Biden overperformed Hillary's margin in Western Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh and Eerie County

No, if Fetterman or Shapiro or Lamb ran they would have won there are differences between Federal races and statewide races just like Tim Ryan has a great chance of beating JD Vance  or Mandel it's a Federal race and the Gov race is a statewide race Whaley is a bad candidate

Rs underestimate Brown and the state split it's votes for Gov and Senate on 2018 and the Generic ballot is plus 7 like it was in 2018

The Rs will do very well in Statewide races in OH, but Ryan can be the lone Blue collar Candidate to win, a Federal race
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Orser67
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« Reply #14 on: July 30, 2021, 01:09:31 PM »
« Edited: July 30, 2021, 01:16:51 PM by Orser67 »

I think he'd be about 50/50, but I'd probably very slightly lean towards him losing, in part because PA Dems have a pretty decent bench. One data point worth considering is that Toomey ran ~0.6 points ahead of Trump in 2016, and Biden won PA by a point in 2020 (although direct comparisons aren't perfect because of different levels of third party voting).

Just quickly eye-balling the 2020 results in the PA suburbs, it looks the only district where congressional Republicans really ran ahead of Trump was in PA-1, where Fitzpatrick got 56.5% compared to Trump's 46.6%. As a PA suburbanite, my personal hope is that the type of voter who voted Biden/Fizpatrick would have realized that Toomey, unlike Fitzpatrick, is basically an average congressional Republican in terms of ideology (notwithstanding Toomey's occasionally centrist positions on social issues).
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2021, 01:33:07 PM »

I think he'd be about 50/50, but I'd probably very slightly lean towards him losing, in part because PA Dems have a pretty decent bench. One data point worth considering is that Toomey ran ~0.6 points ahead of Trump in 2016, and Biden won PA by a point in 2020 (although direct comparisons aren't perfect because of different levels of third party voting).

Just quickly eye-balling the 2020 results in the PA suburbs, it looks the only district where congressional Republicans really ran ahead of Trump was in PA-1, where Fitzpatrick got 56.5% compared to Trump's 46.6%. As a PA suburbanite, my personal hope is that the type of voter who voted Biden/Fizpatrick would have realized that Toomey, unlike Fitzpatrick, is basically an average congressional Republican in terms of ideology (notwithstanding Toomey's occasionally centrist positions on social issues).

Actually congressional Republicans won the house popular vote in PA last year.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #16 on: July 30, 2021, 03:06:39 PM »
« Edited: July 30, 2021, 03:11:49 PM by Mr. Kanye West »

I think he'd be about 50/50, but I'd probably very slightly lean towards him losing, in part because PA Dems have a pretty decent bench. One data point worth considering is that Toomey ran ~0.6 points ahead of Trump in 2016, and Biden won PA by a point in 2020 (although direct comparisons aren't perfect because of different levels of third party voting).

Just quickly eye-balling the 2020 results in the PA suburbs, it looks the only district where congressional Republicans really ran ahead of Trump was in PA-1, where Fitzpatrick got 56.5% compared to Trump's 46.6%. As a PA suburbanite, my personal hope is that the type of voter who voted Biden/Fizpatrick would have realized that Toomey, unlike Fitzpatrick, is basically an average congressional Republican in terms of ideology (notwithstanding Toomey's occasionally centrist positions on social issues).

Doesn't make sense if Biden won Error county and Pittsburgh suburbs by more than Hillary did, don't you realize in split voting again Shapiro, Fetterman or Lamb would have ran ahead of Biden in Western PA, just because House Rs won the Congressional ballot means zilch when it comes to Pennsylvania Senate race, Toomey almost lost to Kate McGinty if we ran Sestak he would have lost

It does not matter anyways because Rs are gonna win WI, GA, AZ, OH, IA, AK, NC NV Senate races

What do users not understand Biden, Bernie or Booker isn't Hillary, that's why Rs haven't won a single cycle since 2016, Hillary was under a Russian cyber attack, if McCain was still here, here, he spoke out against Trump cyber attack against Hillary. Trump made sure he won, they stacked the Crts, eventhough the Crt gave Biden the Election with ultra Conservative, abd D's still think Toomey would have won, plse
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #17 on: July 30, 2021, 03:31:19 PM »

It'd be a tight race, but I can see Toomey very possibly coming out on top. He'd have to strike the perfect balance between being pro-Trump and anti-Trump (he'd have to be the former to win the primary and win over rural Trump voters in the general, while he'd need the latter to win moderate, anti-Trump suburbanites).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #18 on: July 30, 2021, 03:35:06 PM »

Yeah and Biden didn't win Series county and Pittsburgh suburbs more than Hillary Clinton did, Kate KcGonty lost Pittsburg and Eerie County just like Hillary Clinton did, Lamb, Shapiro and Fetterman why they are gonna win this yr are doing well like Biden did in Western PA
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Orser67
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« Reply #19 on: July 30, 2021, 04:34:38 PM »
« Edited: July 30, 2021, 04:37:58 PM by Orser67 »

I think he'd be about 50/50, but I'd probably very slightly lean towards him losing, in part because PA Dems have a pretty decent bench. One data point worth considering is that Toomey ran ~0.6 points ahead of Trump in 2016, and Biden won PA by a point in 2020 (although direct comparisons aren't perfect because of different levels of third party voting).

Just quickly eye-balling the 2020 results in the PA suburbs, it looks the only district where congressional Republicans really ran ahead of Trump was in PA-1, where Fitzpatrick got 56.5% compared to Trump's 46.6%. As a PA suburbanite, my personal hope is that the type of voter who voted Biden/Fizpatrick would have realized that Toomey, unlike Fitzpatrick, is basically an average congressional Republican in terms of ideology (notwithstanding Toomey's occasionally centrist positions on social issues).

Actually congressional Republicans won the house popular vote in PA last year.

Well I wasn't arguing that they didn't, I was just saying that Fitzpatrick's district was the lone district where I saw a truly major gap between presidential and congressional results.


Moving on, here's a look at the difference in margins between the presidential and house races, with the presidential data coming from Daily Kos:

District (w/Incumbent): House R overperformance
PA-1 (Brian Fitzpatrick-R): 18.9
PA-12 (Fred Keller-R): 5.6
PA-04 (Madeleine Dean-D): 5.0
PA-11 (Lloyd Smucker-R): 4.3
PA-10 (Scott Perry-R): 3.7
PA-15 (Glenn Thompson-R): 3.2
PA-06 (Chrissy Houlahan-D): 2.9
PA-13 (John Joyce-R): 2.6
PA-09 (Dan Meuser-R): 2.3
PA-14 (Guy Reschenthaler-R): 1.9
PA-05 (Mary Gay Scanlon-D): 1.7
PA-03 (Dwight Evans-D): 1.1
PA-07 (Susan Wild-D): 0.5
PA-17 (Conor Lamb-D): 0.4
PA-16 (Mike Kelly-R):   0.0
PA-02 (Brendan Boyle-D): -4.1
PA-08 (Matt Cartwright-D): -8.0
PA-18 (Mike Doyle-D): -8.4

What I take from this is that while House Republicans did relatively well running against Dem incumbents in the Philadelphia suburbs (PA-4 and PA-6 being the big ones), elsewhere incumbent members of Congress from both parties at least ran close to even with the top of the ticket. So Toomey's survival may have hinged on his ability to run closer to R incumbents than to Trump in Republican-held districts, although obviously he could have made up ground in other ways, e.g. by running even further ahead of Trump in the PA suburbs than House Rs did.
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RRusso1982
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« Reply #20 on: August 16, 2021, 03:51:52 PM »

The interesting thing about Pennsylvania in 2016 is that Trump's victory map and Toomey's victory map looked completely different.  Toomey did it the way Republicans normally do it in PA, by not getting blown out too badly in the Philadelphia suburbs.  Trump found a new way, by turning white working class big time.  Toomey outperformed Trump by a lot in the Philly suburbs and Trump overperformed Toomey by a lot in NE PA.
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The Smiling Face On Your TV
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« Reply #21 on: August 16, 2021, 03:58:50 PM »

Would've lost narrowly. It's important to remember Toomey won in part because he equivocated on his support for Trump in '16 until an hour before the polls closed.


I think he narrowly wins again. Downballot Republicans greatly outperformed Trump in 2020.

The gap between the House NPV/governors mansions and Presidential vote was smaller than '16 and '12.... where are you getting "greatly outperformed" from?
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