NJ GOV 2025 megathread

[RRusso1982]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Cory Booker ran for Governor.  If the Republicans take the Senate in 2024, he may decide Governor is a better gig than Senator, especially serving in the minority.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Hopefully he gets bodied by some machine apparichnik in the primary and is out of the House as well (oh wait…). Far and away the worst house Dem with Cuellar behind him.

Why? He doesn't seem all that conservative compared to Cuellar.

[S019]

Hopefully he gets bodied by some machine apparichnik in the primary and is out of the House as well (oh wait…). Far and away the worst house Dem with Cuellar behind him.

Why? He doesn't seem all that conservative compared to Cuellar.

He ultimately fits his district well, and much of North Jersey. It's almost like when you have to pay higher property taxes to bail out West Virginia a politician who is a dead-ender on that issue is suddenly extremely appealing. Gottheimer knows what he does plays well among many people in New Jersey, and while I wouldn't have gone as far as him (because I wanted the climate stuff in BBB), if the climate stuff had gotten scrapped, I'd have had a similar position. Anyways, I don't think I'll vote for him because he's more effective in Congress, if we can get him in support of nuking the filibuster, then I'd love to see him in the Senate.

[kwabbit]

Hopefully he gets bodied by some machine apparichnik in the primary and is out of the House as well (oh wait…). Far and away the worst house Dem with Cuellar behind him.

Why? He doesn't seem all that conservative compared to Cuellar.

He ultimately fits his district well, and much of North Jersey. It's almost like when you have to pay higher property taxes to bail out West Virginia a politician who is a dead-ender on that issue is suddenly extremely appealing. Gottheimer knows what he does plays well among many people in New Jersey, and while I wouldn't have gone as far as him (because I wanted the climate stuff in BBB), if the climate stuff had gotten scrapped, I'd have had a similar position. Anyways, I don't think I'll vote for him because he's more effective in Congress, if we can get him in support of nuking the filibuster, then I'd love to see him in the Senate.

Yeah, Gottheimer is a good fit for his district. Representatives should be able to differ from the party in meaningful ways. Gottheimer barely does that and he gets a ton of criticism. Centrist Dems and Leftist Dems are both critical of the opposite end of the party but it seems like the general trend towards party unity (if that's what you want to call it) is harmful to both ends. I'd wager if even 2000s levels of ideological diversity were allowed in the Democratic Party, you'd see a larger and more influential left wing, even if it came with more people like Gottheimer or Dan Lipinski. It would certainly be helpful if moderate Republicans weren't all rooted out in the same manner.

[LabourJersey]

Gottheimer fits his district well, but he doesn't fit the state as a whole well, I don't think.

Plus the strikes against him aren't just the BBB opposition/being a pain in the *ss -- it's also because he's not at all a team player apparently, and a prickly/adversarial guy in private.

Think I said before, he definitely could win in a crowded field in 2025, but the odds aren't with him.

[wbrocks67]

Sherrill seems like the perfect Dem candidate and best fit for the state, IMO.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Gottheimer fits his district well, but he doesn't fit the state as a whole well, I don't think.

Plus the strikes against him aren't just the BBB opposition/being a pain in the *ss -- it's also because he's not at all a team player apparently, and a prickly/adversarial guy in private.

Think I said before, he definitely could win in a crowded field in 2025, but the odds aren't with him.

How would being an asshole who wants the SALT deduction back be damaging in a state like New Jersey?

[Ferguson97]

Gottheimer fits his district well, but he doesn't fit the state as a whole well, I don't think.

Plus the strikes against him aren't just the BBB opposition/being a pain in the *ss -- it's also because he's not at all a team player apparently, and a prickly/adversarial guy in private.

Think I said before, he definitely could win in a crowded field in 2025, but the odds aren't with him.

How would being an asshole who wants the SALT deduction back be damaging in a state like New Jersey?

It's more complicated than that. He is much more conservative than other Democrats who have won statewide recently (Menendez, Booker, Murphy).

[LabourJersey]

Gottheimer fits his district well, but he doesn't fit the state as a whole well, I don't think.

Plus the strikes against him aren't just the BBB opposition/being a pain in the *ss -- it's also because he's not at all a team player apparently, and a prickly/adversarial guy in private.

Think I said before, he definitely could win in a crowded field in 2025, but the odds aren't with him.

How would being an asshole who wants the SALT deduction back be damaging in a state like New Jersey?

It's more complicated than that. He is much more conservative than other Democrats who have won statewide recently (Menendez, Booker, Murphy).

Basically this, plus he's a prickly and standoffish dude in a way that other NJ Dems (Sherill, Murphy, Booker) are very much not.

[JM1295]

Gottheimer fits his district well, but he doesn't fit the state as a whole well, I don't think.

Plus the strikes against him aren't just the BBB opposition/being a pain in the *ss -- it's also because he's not at all a team player apparently, and a prickly/adversarial guy in private.

Think I said before, he definitely could win in a crowded field in 2025, but the odds aren't with him.

How would being an asshole who wants the SALT deduction back be damaging in a state like New Jersey?

It's more complicated than that. He is much more conservative than other Democrats who have won statewide recently (Menendez, Booker, Murphy).

Basically this, plus he's a prickly and standoffish dude in a way that other NJ Dems (Sherill, Murphy, Booker) are very much not.

Yeah, as someone involved in North Jersey politics, Gottheimer is known for being unpleasant and not getting in people's good graces. I remember when he was known thrown out of a local county commissioner's birthday party, because he brought a bodyguard with him (the party was in Paterson). Also, he has ridiculously high staff turnover and went through 3 campaign managers in 2022 cycle alone. I don't think people know what they're talking about if they assume him being moderate and pro-SALT deduction means he's got this.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Gottheimer fits his district well, but he doesn't fit the state as a whole well, I don't think.

Plus the strikes against him aren't just the BBB opposition/being a pain in the *ss -- it's also because he's not at all a team player apparently, and a prickly/adversarial guy in private.

Think I said before, he definitely could win in a crowded field in 2025, but the odds aren't with him.

How would being an asshole who wants the SALT deduction back be damaging in a state like New Jersey?

It's more complicated than that. He is much more conservative than other Democrats who have won statewide recently (Menendez, Booker, Murphy).

Basically this, plus he's a prickly and standoffish dude in a way that other NJ Dems (Sherill, Murphy, Booker) are very much not.

Yeah, as someone involved in North Jersey politics, Gottheimer is known for being unpleasant and not getting in people's good graces. I remember when he was known thrown out of a local county commissioner's birthday party, because he brought a bodyguard with him (the party was in Paterson). Also, he has ridiculously high staff turnover and went through 3 campaign managers in 2022 cycle alone. I don't think people know what they're talking about if they assume him being moderate and pro-SALT deduction means he's got this.

That’s the vibe I’ve got from what I’ve read.  He doesn’t really seem to have a patron among the north Jersey Democratic machine bosses.  Steve Sweeney is a gross ConservaDem, but he has the Camden-based Norcross machine.  Who does Gottheimer have?  I mean, he can’t run as a progressive insurgent (plus they tend not to do well in NJ even if he could) and he can’t win by running on his own brand the way Booker did since his national profile, inasmuch as he has one, can only hurt him with primary voters.  “Vote for me, fellow Democrats, I did everything possible to kill the party’s legislative agenda b/c my donors oppose a lot of your major priorities” is not a compelling pitch.

[NewYorkExpress]

[kwabbit]

Glad to see some Goldman Sachs representation in NJ politics.

[Roll Roons]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/fulop-secures-hudson-endorsements-and-the-organization-line-for-governor-in-key-n-j-county/

Fulop gets the county line in Hudson - expected, but still good for him.

[Pollster]

Fulop appears to be replicating Murphy's 2017 strategy: get in comically (but strategically) early, begin consolidating support fast to outmaneuver the machine bosses, raise money on the IE side (his super PAC already has $8+ million in the bank) to both help allies win legislative races and build relationships with donors for the official campaign side, and simply outwork the other potential candidates (all of whom have more time-consuming jobs) on the ground and ideally keep them out of the primary altogether.

[LabourJersey]

Fulop appears to be replicating Murphy's 2017 strategy: get in comically (but strategically) early, begin consolidating support fast to outmaneuver the machine bosses, raise money on the IE side (his super PAC already has $8+ million in the bank) to both help allies win legislative races and build relationships with donors for the official campaign side, and simply outwork the other potential candidates (all of whom have more time-consuming jobs) on the ground and ideally keep them out of the primary altogether.

Great point in the comparison with Murphy. I forgot that he got in during May of 2016. The difference though was that Murphy was essentially a blank slate to people: Fulop is known in Jersey politics, and some people love and some hate him.

[Suburbia]

We have too much Goldman Sachs pols in NJ

Corzine, Murphy, Fulop?

I think it is time for a South Jersey Democrat to be governor again. Too many North Jerseyans. Time for a regional balance.

We haven't had a South Jersey governor since Jim Florio

Steve Sweeney would be okay, he might be too conservadem socially for the party and too Southern...but if he picks a Black/Latino LG from the North, it would be a good ticket.

For Republicans, if Biden wins reelection, the best Republican would be someone new and fresh.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Chris Christie was the best R you can find just like CA had Schwarzenegger I don't think another R can get elected and Kean barely won and he is gonna be out in 24 anyways he is a retread from losing to MENENDEZ the RS are even contesting MENENDEZ seat

[Sir Mohamed]

Announcing for 2025 seems extremely early? Our campaigns are too long.

[Duke of York]

Any chance Shelia Oliver runs? I think she could be formidable and could tout she’s been acting governor on multiple occasions.

What about Ras Baraka?

[Pollster]

Fulop appears to be replicating Murphy's 2017 strategy: get in comically (but strategically) early, begin consolidating support fast to outmaneuver the machine bosses, raise money on the IE side (his super PAC already has $8+ million in the bank) to both help allies win legislative races and build relationships with donors for the official campaign side, and simply outwork the other potential candidates (all of whom have more time-consuming jobs) on the ground and ideally keep them out of the primary altogether.

Great point in the comparison with Murphy. I forgot that he got in during May of 2016. The difference though was that Murphy was essentially a blank slate to people: Fulop is known in Jersey politics, and some people love and some hate him.

Yeah - he's also not a millionaire and pretty soon won't be able to rely on his super PAC directly.

[Pollster]

Announcing for 2025 seems extremely early? Our campaigns are too long.

Running a serious statewide (and even non-statewide) campaign in New Jersey is becoming prohibitively expensive if you don't start raising money this early (and aren't personally wealthy/sitting on a pre-existing war chest). We probably won't see him or other candidates actively retail politicking for some time.

[Progressive Pessimist]

We have too much Goldman Sachs pols in NJ

Corzine, Murphy, Fulop?

I think it is time for a South Jersey Democrat to be governor again. Too many North Jerseyans. Time for a regional balance.

We haven't had a South Jersey governor since Jim Florio

Steve Sweeney would be okay, he might be too conservadem socially for the party and too Southern...but if he picks a Black/Latino LG from the North, it would be a good ticket.

For Republicans, if Biden wins reelection, the best Republican would be someone new and fresh.

I'm over the Goldman Sachs criticisms. That was tied to Murphy before he took office, but upon being in the job hasn't exactly governed in ways that reflect the interests of the financial sector.

[Suburbia]

Any chance Shelia Oliver runs? I think she could be formidable and could tout she’s been acting governor on multiple occasions.

What about Ras Baraka?

I don't think Oliver wants the job, anything else, she would probably be Donald Payne Jr.'s successor if she primaries him in 2024 or 2026 or something

Ras Baraka would probably lose a general because Republicans would tie him to his father's rhetoric, like Hakeem Jeffries' uncle.

[Duke of York]

Any chance Shelia Oliver runs? I think she could be formidable and could tout she’s been acting governor on multiple occasions.

What about Ras Baraka?

I don't think Oliver wants the job, anything else, she would probably be Donald Payne Jr.'s successor if she primaries him in 2024 or 2026 or something

Ras Baraka would probably lose a general because Republicans would tie him to his father's rhetoric, like Hakeem Jeffries' uncle.

Why don't you think she wants it? I think Congress would be a downgrade for her.

Would would Baraka lose?