NJ GOV 2025 megathread

[Suburbia]

Multimillionaire progressive Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy is likely to be reelected in November 2021, he is seen to be lucky that he will be the first Democratic governor since Brendan Byrne in 1977 to win reelection; his frenemy State Senate President Stephen Sweeney is likely to run for governor in 2025, however, Sweeney may be too white, too Southern and too conservative for Jersey Democrats...Sweeney hails from South Jersey and is a member of the South Jersey political machine...

Sweeney opposes higher taxes on millionaires/billionaires and is seen as uneducated.

https://www.insidernj.com/race-on-smart-money-picks-governor-come-2025/

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's pretty early, isn't it? But I'll bite. Certainly Sweeney is always a contender for statewide politics, but I wouldn't rule out seeing others like Steven Fulop attempt to rise higher.

[MATTROSE94]

It's pretty early, isn't it? But I'll bite. Certainly Sweeney is always a contender for statewide politics, but I wouldn't rule out seeing others like Steven Fulop attempt to rise higher.

I wouldn’t mind Steven Fulop. He would probably win by something like a 52-46 margin if I had to guess.

[Suburbia]

It's pretty early, isn't it? But I'll bite. Certainly Sweeney is always a contender for statewide politics, but I wouldn't rule out seeing others like Steven Fulop attempt to rise higher.

I wouldn’t mind Steven Fulop. He would probably win by something like a 52-46 margin if I had to guess.

What about Lt. Gov. Sheila Oliver? She would be the first Black governor, first Black female governor and the second female governor....she will probably be the favorite since the NJDP was attacked by a progressive activist for having three white men (Murphy, Sweeney, Coughlin) determining state policy.....there will be pressure for a Black woman to be on the 2025 Democratic ticket....

Fulop may be too green for the job......

https://www.nj.com/politics/2021/06/progressive-activist-says-theres-systemic-racism-in-nj-budget-process-top-lawmaker-wants-apology.html

What about the Republicans? The NJGOP does not want to have Chris Christie as the last person who won a statewide office--in 2013, that election is seen as asterisked or tainted because of Bridgegate.....maybe someone like Jennifer Beck or Ryan Peters or Tommy Russo could be electable.....

[NewYorkExpress]

If Oliver (or Cory Booker) wants to be Governor, they'll have an easy ride to the nomination.

Don't be surprised if Jeff Van Drew runs for the Republicans, especially if it's clear he could be in reelection danger in 2026 (or alternatively, he loses in 2024).

[Senator Incitatus]

Most likely candidate not mentioned is Shaun Golden for the Republicans. Also a high likelihood Hugin puts out feelers, but only runs if he thinks it will be competitive.

[Ferguson97]

Jersey is out of reach for the GOP on a statewide level.

Oliver will be the next Governor if she likes, if not her then IDK who will run.

[Suburbia]

Jersey is out of reach for the GOP on a statewide level.

Oliver will be the next Governor if she likes, if not her then IDK who will run.

You sure a good candidate like Ryan Peters, Tommy Russo, Tom Kean Jr., or Jen Beck can't win, or maybe even Jay Webber or Antwan McClellan in 2025 or 2029?

Whitman (1997) and Christie (2009 and 2013) being the last Republicans to win statewide must be something that they don't really want to remember...

[Ferguson97]

Jersey is out of reach for the GOP on a statewide level.

Oliver will be the next Governor if she likes, if not her then IDK who will run.

You sure a good candidate like Ryan Peters, Tommy Russo, Tom Kean Jr., or Jen Beck can't win, or maybe even Jay Webber or Antwan McClellan in 2025 or 2029?

Yeah, 2025 and 2029 are close enough that I feel confident in saying that.

IDK what long-term trends will bring, but I don't see a Republican Governor in NJ happening until maybe the late 2030s

[Roll Roons]

Jersey is out of reach for the GOP on a statewide level.

Oliver will be the next Governor if she likes, if not her then IDK who will run.

You sure a good candidate like Ryan Peters, Tommy Russo, Tom Kean Jr., or Jen Beck can't win, or maybe even Jay Webber or Antwan McClellan in 2025 or 2029?

Yeah, 2025 and 2029 are close enough that I feel confident in saying that.

In June 2013, I don't think anyone really expected a Republican to win the governorship of Maryland, a much bluer state.

Things can be unpredictable.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

It would take a very bad Democrat or a Republican with massive crossover appeal, but there are very few states were the Governor's race is out of reach for the minority party.

Vermont, Maryland, and Massachusetts speak for themselves, but honestly so do Louisiana, Kentucky, and Kansas.

[Flyersfan232]

The lt governor?

[Continential]

I wonder who will run now, since Sweeney (probably) lost and Murphy will narrowly win.

[Roll Roons]

I wonder who will run now, since Sweeney (probably) lost and Murphy will narrowly win.

Steve Fulop (Jersey City Mayor) for the Democrats. Idk who runs for the GOP, but they'll find someone.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Oliver is the nominee, and Biden still President by some miracle, I expect the GOP to recapture the Governor's Mansion for sure in 2025.

Any other circumstance and Democrats may still win here, especially if they have some hindsight about what went down this year.

[CookieDamage]

Chances the NJ Dems switch elections to be held in presidential years?

[Ferguson97]

Chances the NJ Dems switch elections to be held in presidential years?

I am pretty sure this would require an amendment to our constitution.

[CookieDamage]

Chances the NJ Dems switch elections to be held in presidential years?

I am pretty sure this would require an amendment to our constitution.

Well amend away! Don't we have supermajorities?

EDIT: I guess it would take too long to organize and put it on the ballot. We have the numbers though but not for long since I think GOP won enough to break Dems supermajority.

[Ferguson97]

Chances the NJ Dems switch elections to be held in presidential years?

I am pretty sure this would require an amendment to our constitution.

Well amend away! Don't we have supermajorities?

EDIT: I guess it would take too long to organize and put it on the ballot. We have the numbers though but not for long since I think GOP won enough to break Dems supermajority.

I'm not really sure why Murphy would agree to this and cut his governorship a year short lol

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

So Ciattarelli would be 63 in the next election year and the NJ GOP bench is fairly weak - after his massive overperformance, I think there's a good chance the nom is his if he wants it in 2025.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So Ciattarelli would be 63 in the next election year and the NJ GOP bench is fairly weak - after his massive overperformance, I think there's a good chance the nom is his if he wants it in 2025.

It would probably depend on whether Biden is still President. The historical pattern has only been barely weakened.

[free my dawg]

Very glad to see a leader of the Republican wing of the NJDP losing.

[Flyersfan232]

any jewish republicans that could run if not what about van drew?

[LabourJersey]

Chances the NJ Dems switch elections to be held in presidential years?

I am pretty sure this would require an amendment to our constitution.

Well amend away! Don't we have supermajorities?

EDIT: I guess it would take too long to organize and put it on the ballot. We have the numbers though but not for long since I think GOP won enough to break Dems supermajority.

I'm not really sure why Murphy would agree to this and cut his governorship a year short lol

He could just extend his governorship a year. Wait until 2026 and set the gov race to midterms. It would be a lot less popular than setting it in 2024 but it's possible I guess

[LAB-LIB]

I'm kind of surprised no one has mentioned Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill.