NJ GOV 2025 megathread

[Suburbia]

Any chance Shelia Oliver runs? I think she could be formidable and could tout she’s been acting governor on multiple occasions.

What about Ras Baraka?

I don't think Oliver wants the job, anything else, she would probably be Donald Payne Jr.'s successor if she primaries him in 2024 or 2026 or something

Ras Baraka would probably lose a general because Republicans would tie him to his father's rhetoric, like Hakeem Jeffries' uncle.

Why don't you think she wants it? I think Congress would be a downgrade for her.

Would would Baraka lose?

She is probably too old, I don't think she wants it, and she may want to retire to private life.

Baraka would be too radical for NJ's electorate....Republicans will bring up his father.

[Duke of York]

Any chance Shelia Oliver runs? I think she could be formidable and could tout she’s been acting governor on multiple occasions.

What about Ras Baraka?

I don't think Oliver wants the job, anything else, she would probably be Donald Payne Jr.'s successor if she primaries him in 2024 or 2026 or something

Ras Baraka would probably lose a general because Republicans would tie him to his father's rhetoric, like Hakeem Jeffries' uncle.

Why don't you think she wants it? I think Congress would be a downgrade for her.

Would would Baraka lose?

She is probably too old, I don't think she wants it, and she may want to retire to private life.

Baraka would be too radical for NJ's electorate....Republicans will bring up his father.

I don't think she's too old and what makes you think she doesn't want it. I really want her to run.

[Roll Roons]

Btw, primaries are happening tonight. Most of them are pretty sleepy, but there are a few exceptions.

LD-4 is an open seat that is expected to have a highly competitive general election and there is a heated Republican primary between former Washington Township Councilman Chris Del Borrello and Gloucester County Commissioner Nick DeSilvio.

The Norcross machine tried to intervene to boost DeSilvio, thinking him to be the weaker opponent, but Del Borrello is winning in a landslide. I guess Sweeney's defeat really was the fatal blow for them.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1666248647799980034

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

MAGA State Senator Ed Durr defeated his UltraMAGA opponent as well.

In my district, our veteran establishment Dem State Senator got a very energetic primary challenge from a local progressive activist who basically blanketed the district with ads - and beat her by 70 points anyway. NJ politics remain incredibly machine-driven and stable as always.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1686412257918328832

RIP to the New Jersey Lt. Governor.

[Atlas Force]

RIP

[CookieDamage]

RIP she was only 71

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1699883523530731669

[Senator Incitatus]

Not at all a surprise or going to have any impact on 2025.

Of more interest, it seems like both Gottheimer and Sherrill are seriously gearing up to run which leads me to expect a fourth candidate from Central or South Jersey will begin to materialize, whether Sweeney or someone less conservative.

A lot more will be clear after November and we see whether the bleeding down there continues.

[Ferguson97]

Not at all a surprise or going to have any impact on 2025.

Of more interest, it seems like both Gottheimer and Sherrill are seriously gearing up to run which leads me to expect a fourth candidate from Central or South Jersey will begin to materialize, whether Sweeney or someone less conservative.

A lot more will be clear after November and we see whether the bleeding down there continues.

A bit of insider info: there's like a 90% chance that Gottheimer runs. Don't know enough people in Sherrill's camp to say for certain about her.

I think Gottheimer would have a bit of trouble winning the primary, he's a little too conservative to win statewide.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not at all a surprise or going to have any impact on 2025.

Of more interest, it seems like both Gottheimer and Sherrill are seriously gearing up to run which leads me to expect a fourth candidate from Central or South Jersey will begin to materialize, whether Sweeney or someone less conservative.

A lot more will be clear after November and we see whether the bleeding down there continues.

Didn’t Sweeney already announce he’s running?

[Senator Incitatus]

Not at all a surprise or going to have any impact on 2025.

Of more interest, it seems like both Gottheimer and Sherrill are seriously gearing up to run which leads me to expect a fourth candidate from Central or South Jersey will begin to materialize, whether Sweeney or someone less conservative.

A lot more will be clear after November and we see whether the bleeding down there continues.

Didn’t Sweeney already announce he’s running?

I think (extemporaneous here) there were reports that he indicated he was running at a 2021 union meeting but nothing official and he has since denied.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1699883523530731669

I have to think this announcement was made with the idea of a possible House bid in mind for Way. I'm not sure which part of Passaic County she lives in, but she could be a candidate for Gottheimer or Sherrill's  seat if either are elected Governor in 2025, or for Pascrell's seat if he retires or dies in the imminent future (which is possible, as Pascrell is 86).

[Senator Incitatus]

[snip]

I have to think this announcement was made with the idea of a possible House bid in mind for Way. I'm not sure which part of Passaic County she lives in, but she could be a candidate for Gottheimer or Sherrill's  seat if either are elected Governor in 2025, or for Pascrell's seat if he retires or dies in the imminent future (which is possible, as Pascrell is 86).

I believe she's from Totowa, but as a former Freeholder, she could probably run successfully in any of the three districts. Pascrell's makes the most sense since it's the most Passaic of the three by far.

[Atlas Force]

I live in Pascrell's district, and I think it's pretty cool that Way could be my next representative in Congress.

[Senator Incitatus]

It seems like we're using this thread as a catch-all for everything including the legislative races, so this seems like a major story worth noting: one of the most competitive races (4th district) has likely just found its defining issue: bail reform.

An ex-Christie aide was arrested recently on particularly heinous allegations of sexual crimes against a child. You can read the story itself if you want the details, but I won't repeat them here.

Today, he was released on bail to his home in Washington Township, the largest municipality in the hyper-competitive 4th legislative district and also the home of both Senate candidates. The conditions of his bail are staying off the internet and not contacting the six-year old victim, but notably do not require him to keep distance from any other children. Both candidates have come out strongly against the release, but both sides are going to have something to deal with here: the accused is the former township Republican chair, while Assemblyman Paul Moriarty, the Democratic candidate, voted for the Christie-era bail reform law under which the release was possible. Moriarty insists that the Murphy-appointed judge misinterpreted the legislature's intent and he is "appalled," but the Republican nominee is hitting him on it pretty hard and has called for a special session to repeal the bail reform law. All in all, shaping up to be a particularly disgusting fall campaign in this district, even by New Jersey standards.

Elsewhere, the semi-coastal and nearly-as-competitive 11th district has settled on a much tamer issue: offshore wind farming. Opposition to new wind farms appears to favor the Republican ticket but we'll see if it has resonance; Democratic Senator Vin Gopal previously favored it before backpedaling, but the Republican candidate has been financially tied (albeit tenuously) to a chief contractor in the industry, and anti-wind sentiments may have settled down after they peaked when several whales beached earlier. (I'm not personally clear on how this was tied to wind farming, but it was.)

It's very unlikely that Republicans take back either chamber, but by now I'd be totally unsurprised if they take both of the above districts (in addition to safely picking up the 12th district Senate seat). Just don't see where they get another 2–3 districts; the 38th district is next, but the Democratic incumbents are strong and it doesn't seem like parental notification (on gender identity) will stick as a winning issue. Republicans have to hope for a general wave and a reversal of some pretty steep demographic trends in places like the 14th and 16th districts and even then they'd win by the skin of their teeth.

[MATTROSE94]

I am thinking that both house of the New Jersey state legislature flip this year and that Jack Ciattarelli wins by a squeaker in 2025 and then gets re-elected handily in 2029. 2032 I think Jack Ciattarelli opts to run against Corey Booker and will probably win big based on Donald Trumps fourth term coattails.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I am thinking that both house of the New Jersey state legislature flip this year and that Jack Ciattarelli wins by a squeaker in 2025 and then gets re-elected handily in 2029. 2032 I think Jack Ciattarelli opts to run against Corey Booker and will probably win big based on Donald Trumps fourth term coattails.

*Pickard face-palm*.

[MargieCat]

Mikie Sherrill it is!
https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1712263842678321359

[Lambsbread]

Mikie Sherrill it is!
https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1712263842678321359

What a stupid dick.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, Gottheimer was always meh. I never expected him to play well in a Dem primary anyway; Sherrill always seemed like the obvious choice.