Should the GOP develop a "Rust Belt Strategy"

[Vice President Christian Man]

The 2016 election produced an unexpected coalition of some former Democrats, many of whom were economically & even socially liberal, but conservative on cultural issues (2A, immigration, trade, etc). and won several states (notably Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) which hadn't voted for a GOP president since the 1980s. Does the GOP need to adapt to win this region, since they are rapidly losing The Sun Belt, or is there another solution? Discuss.

[Roll Roons]

Well, they can't abandon the Sun Belt completely.

If Texas goes blue, the GOP has virtually no path to victory in the Electoral College. I don't see how Arizona or Georgia would vote to the right of Texas. Those three states are collectively worth 67 electoral votes. And that's not even getting into North Carolina.

Even in a hypothetical scenario where every other state/district that Biden won by single digits (ME, MI, MN, NE-02, NV, NH, PA, WI) goes R, that still only gets them to 262 electoral votes. By that point, they'd need to somehow flip a state like Illinois or New Jersey.

[Skill and Chance]

Well, they can't abandon the Sun Belt completely.

If Texas goes blue, the GOP has virtually no path to victory in the Electoral College. I don't see how Arizona or Georgia would vote to the right of Texas. Those three states are collectively worth 67 electoral votes. And that's not even getting into North Carolina.

Even in a hypothetical scenario where every other state/district that Biden won by single digits (ME, MI, MN, NE-02, NV, NH, PA, WI) goes R, that still only gets them to 262 electoral votes. By that point, they'd need to somehow flip a state like Illinois or New Jersey.

Well, the big surprise of 2020 is that the "Rust Belt" strategy appeals to a lot more Hispanic voters than anyone expected.  That could be enough to keep Florida and Texas off the table for Democrats for a decade or more, which basically makes continuing down that road a home run for the GOP if it holds.

IMO the big question is whether they can maintain their ridiculous levels of white support in the South after Roe is overturned or substantially weakened.  Keep in mind that a SCOTUS decision on this is likely coming next year.  If the Southern white vote comes in line with nationwide, basically the entire Deep South flips back to the Dems (maybe not AL).

[Torie]

Well, they can't abandon the Sun Belt completely.

If Texas goes blue, the GOP has virtually no path to victory in the Electoral College. I don't see how Arizona or Georgia would vote to the right of Texas. Those three states are collectively worth 67 electoral votes. And that's not even getting into North Carolina.

Even in a hypothetical scenario where every other state/district that Biden won by single digits (ME, MI, MN, NE-02, NV, NH, PA, WI) goes R, that still only gets them to 262 electoral votes. By that point, they'd need to somehow flip a state like Illinois or New Jersey.

Well, the big surprise of 2020 is that the "Rust Belt" strategy appeals to a lot more Hispanic voters than anyone expected.  That could be enough to keep Florida and Texas off the table for Democrats for a decade or more, which basically makes continuing down that road a home run for the GOP if it holds.

IMO the big question is whether they can maintain their ridiculous levels of white support in the South after Roe is overturned or substantially weakened.  Keep in mind that a SCOTUS decision on this is likely coming next year.  If the Southern white vote comes in line with nationwide, basically the entire Deep South flips back to the Dems (maybe not AL).

Would you elaborate on Roe being so salient?

[RI]

Well, they can't abandon the Sun Belt completely.

If Texas goes blue, the GOP has virtually no path to victory in the Electoral College. I don't see how Arizona or Georgia would vote to the right of Texas. Those three states are collectively worth 67 electoral votes. And that's not even getting into North Carolina.

Even in a hypothetical scenario where every other state/district that Biden won by single digits (ME, MI, MN, NE-02, NV, NH, PA, WI) goes R, that still only gets them to 262 electoral votes. By that point, they'd need to somehow flip a state like Illinois or New Jersey.

Well, the big surprise of 2020 is that the "Rust Belt" strategy appeals to a lot more Hispanic voters than anyone expected.  That could be enough to keep Florida and Texas off the table for Democrats for a decade or more, which basically makes continuing down that road a home run for the GOP if it holds.

IMO the big question is whether they can maintain their ridiculous levels of white support in the South after Roe is overturned or substantially weakened.  Keep in mind that a SCOTUS decision on this is likely coming next year.  If the Southern white vote comes in line with nationwide, basically the entire Deep South flips back to the Dems (maybe not AL).

There is no reason to think Southern whites will be less likely to vote GOP if Roe is reversed. Reversing Roe doesn't end abortion as an issue; if anything it makes it more of a political issue because states will actually be able to act on it, and it's certainly not like the Democrats are going to immediately give up on the issue-- they'll only be pushing abortion harder than ever. Pro-life voters aren't going to instantly forget which party wants what.

[Skill and Chance]

Well, they can't abandon the Sun Belt completely.

If Texas goes blue, the GOP has virtually no path to victory in the Electoral College. I don't see how Arizona or Georgia would vote to the right of Texas. Those three states are collectively worth 67 electoral votes. And that's not even getting into North Carolina.

Even in a hypothetical scenario where every other state/district that Biden won by single digits (ME, MI, MN, NE-02, NV, NH, PA, WI) goes R, that still only gets them to 262 electoral votes. By that point, they'd need to somehow flip a state like Illinois or New Jersey.

Well, the big surprise of 2020 is that the "Rust Belt" strategy appeals to a lot more Hispanic voters than anyone expected.  That could be enough to keep Florida and Texas off the table for Democrats for a decade or more, which basically makes continuing down that road a home run for the GOP if it holds.

IMO the big question is whether they can maintain their ridiculous levels of white support in the South after Roe is overturned or substantially weakened.  Keep in mind that a SCOTUS decision on this is likely coming next year.  If the Southern white vote comes in line with nationwide, basically the entire Deep South flips back to the Dems (maybe not AL).

There is no reason to think Southern whites will be less likely to vote GOP if Roe is reversed. Reversing Roe doesn't end abortion as an issue; if anything it makes it more of a political issue because states will actually be able to act on it, and it's certainly not like the Democrats are going to immediately give up on the issue-- they'll only be pushing abortion harder than ever. Pro-life voters aren't going to instantly forget which party wants what.

Still, Dems would only need to gain 5-15% to flip a couple more Southern states, most notably NC, SC, and MS. 

[Agonized-Statism]

They should acclimate to the natural movement of the party's base northward and eastward and understand that the Jesusland map isn't happening anymore, but outright trading the South and West for a few tiny Rust Belt states would be suicide. The electoral votes, let alone the popular vote, just aren't there. Hold the line where the line can be held (most definitely by staying competitive in swing state Texas), and hope the bits they keep can combine with Rust Belt gains for a win.

[Nyvin]

Seems kinda crazy that in 2024 WI-PA-MI will be worth 44 EV's together while Texas alone will be worth 40.

[coloradocowboi]

The GOP has, since the 1980s, been reliant on a "Southern Strategy" to win national elections. What this has entailed is a cultural-issues-first policy on things that matter to older, white voters in the south.

This strategy is essential to the contemporary GOP, and unfortunately demands that their politics always be: 1. Anti-LGBTQ; 2. Anti-Black; 3. Anti-immigrant; 4. Pro-evangelical Christianity; 5. pro-capitalism; and 6. anti-abortion. Where else, can anybody tell me, is full of voters just like this, and who are willing to put these values before any others?

The Southern Strategy will soon fail in the South because of rapidly diversifying populations. The power of white, Christian identity politics is waning at a time when other kinds of identity politics are exploding. But also, the GOP needs Christian identitarians to win elections. In general, they are doomed long-term imo unless they change.

And moving the Southern Strategy to the Rust Belt sounds risky to me. They have quite literally maxed on in both turnout and their voter share, voters throughout the rural Midwest. And in 2018/2020 how did it look? Not good enough to win...

And they're gonna bet on that strategy again while their voters die off en masse and new Democrats turn 18 every day? Even in places like Wisconsin, the nonwhite vote is poised to keep growing.

In the short term, a Rust Belt strategy might pay off. But past 2030, they are totally f-d unless they become more socially moderate (or economically left, but I find that the least likely scenario)

[Non Swing Voter]

what other choice do they have?  They are going to start losing more and more Southern states and Democrats have about 200 electoral votes locked up in the Northeast/West Coast + Illinois.