Your 2024 Hot Takes?

[NewYorkExpress]

Republicans sweep the Midwest (except for Pennsylvania), but lose Texas, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia, meaning Biden actually wins more electoral votes than he won in 2020.

Kamala Harris declines to run for reelection as Vice President, and instead files to return to the Senate, where Dianne Feinstein is retiring (or alternatively, actually attempts to primary Feinstein). Biden replaces her on the ticket with Deb Haaland.

After losing the House in 2022, Democrats regain the House in 2024.

Republicans pick up the Senate seats in Montana, Ohio and West Virginia.

Democrats pick up the Senate seats in Texas and Florida.

Bob Menendez, Amy Klobuchar, Tom Carper and Mitt Romney all lose Senate Primaries.

[Schiff for Senate]

Kamala Harris wins the race. And (shocking as it may be for some users here) NM stays blue; GA doesn't vote Democratic by more than a point, at the most (if Trump isn't the GOP nominee - if he is, make that three points); FL doesn't go red by more than 3 points (unless the GOP nominates DeSantis or Rubio); TX stays red for the time being and Starr County and South Texas do not trend further rightward unless Rubio's the nominee.

[EugeneDebs]

If Josh Hawley runs he will be the Republican nominee and win the general election by a lot, no matter who he's running against.

[tallguy23]

Biden is reelected easily.

[here2view]

1. Biden/Harris defeat DeSantis/Haley 282—256, with Biden losing Arizona and Wisconsin from 2020. He wins the popular vote 50-47

2. Georgia votes to the left of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada

3. The two closest 2016 Clinton states for the GOP to flip are Nevada and Maine, which votes 2-3 points to the right of New Hampshire. Minnesota does not budge

4. Texas barely votes to the left of Florida, although DeSantis wins both by 4+

5. DeSantis wins Iowa and Kansas by the same margin — 12 points.

6. The urban-rural shift continues. Biden wins a county in OK (Oklahoma County) and WV (Monongalia County)

7. The GOP makes even further gains in the RGV in Texas. Biden is able to cut down the margin compared to 2020 by flipping Denton and Collin

8. The GOP controls both the House and the Senate

9. Republicans control 3/4 of the House seats in Nevada

10. Biden wins Washington County, but loses Desha, Lee, and St. Francis Counties in Arkansas

[Devils30]

1. Biden/Harris defeat DeSantis/Haley 282—256, with Biden losing Arizona and Wisconsin from 2020. He wins the popular vote 50-47

2. Georgia votes to the left of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada

3. The two closest 2016 Clinton states for the GOP to flip are Nevada and Maine, which votes 2-3 points to the right of New Hampshire. Minnesota does not budge

4. Texas barely votes to the left of Florida, although DeSantis wins both by 4+

5. DeSantis wins Iowa and Kansas by the same margin — 12 points.

6. The urban-rural shift continues. Biden wins a county in OK (Oklahoma County) and WV (Monongalia County)

7. The GOP makes even further gains in the RGV in Texas. Biden is able to cut down the margin compared to 2020 by flipping Denton and Collin

8. The GOP controls both the House and the Senate

9. Republicans control 3/4 of the House seats in Nevada

10. Biden wins Washington County, but loses Desha, Lee, and St. Francis Counties in Arkansas

No chance on 9 after the Dems redraw Nevada.

[Utah Neolib]

1. Biden/Harris defeat DeSantis/Haley 282—256, with Biden losing Arizona and Wisconsin from 2020. He wins the popular vote 50-47

2. Georgia votes to the left of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada

3. The two closest 2016 Clinton states for the GOP to flip are Nevada and Maine, which votes 2-3 points to the right of New Hampshire. Minnesota does not budge

4. Texas barely votes to the left of Florida, although DeSantis wins both by 4+

5. DeSantis wins Iowa and Kansas by the same margin — 12 points.

6. The urban-rural shift continues. Biden wins a county in OK (Oklahoma County) and WV (Monongalia County)

7. The GOP makes even further gains in the RGV in Texas. Biden is able to cut down the margin compared to 2020 by flipping Denton and Collin

8. The GOP controls both the House and the Senate

9. Republicans control 3/4 of the House seats in Nevada

10. Biden wins Washington County, but loses Desha, Lee, and St. Francis Counties in Arkansas

No chance on 9 after the Dems redraw Nevada.

It’s actually kinda tricky to do a really good gerrymander of Nevada

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

1. Biden/Harris defeat DeSantis/Haley 282—256, with Biden losing Arizona and Wisconsin from 2020. He wins the popular vote 50-47

2. Georgia votes to the left of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada

3. The two closest 2016 Clinton states for the GOP to flip are Nevada and Maine, which votes 2-3 points to the right of New Hampshire. Minnesota does not budge

4. Texas barely votes to the left of Florida, although DeSantis wins both by 4+

5. DeSantis wins Iowa and Kansas by the same margin — 12 points.

6. The urban-rural shift continues. Biden wins a county in OK (Oklahoma County) and WV (Monongalia County)

7. The GOP makes even further gains in the RGV in Texas. Biden is able to cut down the margin compared to 2020 by flipping Denton and Collin

8. The GOP controls both the House and the Senate

9. Republicans control 3/4 of the House seats in Nevada

10. Biden wins Washington County, but loses Desha, Lee, and St. Francis Counties in Arkansas

No chance on 9 after the Dems redraw Nevada.

It’s actually kinda tricky to do a really good gerrymander of Nevada

Define "really good gerrymander".

[Utah Neolib]

1. Biden/Harris defeat DeSantis/Haley 282—256, with Biden losing Arizona and Wisconsin from 2020. He wins the popular vote 50-47

2. Georgia votes to the left of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada

3. The two closest 2016 Clinton states for the GOP to flip are Nevada and Maine, which votes 2-3 points to the right of New Hampshire. Minnesota does not budge

4. Texas barely votes to the left of Florida, although DeSantis wins both by 4+

5. DeSantis wins Iowa and Kansas by the same margin — 12 points.

6. The urban-rural shift continues. Biden wins a county in OK (Oklahoma County) and WV (Monongalia County)

7. The GOP makes even further gains in the RGV in Texas. Biden is able to cut down the margin compared to 2020 by flipping Denton and Collin

8. The GOP controls both the House and the Senate

9. Republicans control 3/4 of the House seats in Nevada

10. Biden wins Washington County, but loses Desha, Lee, and St. Francis Counties in Arkansas

No chance on 9 after the Dems redraw Nevada.

It’s actually kinda tricky to do a really good gerrymander of Nevada

Define "really good gerrymander".

Like, making 1 gop vote sink and the other three being atleast 55% D

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

1. Biden/Harris defeat DeSantis/Haley 282—256, with Biden losing Arizona and Wisconsin from 2020. He wins the popular vote 50-47

2. Georgia votes to the left of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada

3. The two closest 2016 Clinton states for the GOP to flip are Nevada and Maine, which votes 2-3 points to the right of New Hampshire. Minnesota does not budge

4. Texas barely votes to the left of Florida, although DeSantis wins both by 4+

5. DeSantis wins Iowa and Kansas by the same margin — 12 points.

6. The urban-rural shift continues. Biden wins a county in OK (Oklahoma County) and WV (Monongalia County)

7. The GOP makes even further gains in the RGV in Texas. Biden is able to cut down the margin compared to 2020 by flipping Denton and Collin

8. The GOP controls both the House and the Senate

9. Republicans control 3/4 of the House seats in Nevada

10. Biden wins Washington County, but loses Desha, Lee, and St. Francis Counties in Arkansas

No chance on 9 after the Dems redraw Nevada.

It’s actually kinda tricky to do a really good gerrymander of Nevada

Define "really good gerrymander".

Like, making 1 gop vote sink and the other three being atleast 55% D

Hmm, I can see your case, but at the same time I harbor deep doubts that Rs really have much of a chance at 3/4. 2/4, yeah, definitely, but 3 is pushing it.

[Agonized-Statism]

Florida is still a swing state and will probably vote for the Democrat (Harris IMO).

[Chips]

Trump vs. Biden map is the 2020 map but Trump wins WI.

[Xing]

Texas is closer than Nevada.

[EastwoodS]

Florida is still a swing state and will probably vote for the Democrat (Harris IMO).

Yeah no, no, no,  no

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before it won't be that much marginal change except for of GA loses its Bellweather status and Herschel Walker wins and OH regaining it's Bellweather status and Brown wins, D's don't have to win OH in 2022 but need it in order to keep the Senate along with MT in 2024

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before STATUS QUO ELECTION notuch different than 2020 except for GA loosing it's Bellweather status and OH regaining it since D's need OH and MT in 2024 to keep Senate not on 2022

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Tarrant County will vote to the right of Collin.

If this happens, it will be probably with both counties being blue, so is this trend goes around all the state, there is a good chance of TX going blue or GOP winning by 1-2%.

[THG]

Tarrant County will vote to the right of Collin.

If this happens, it will be probably with both counties being blue, so is this trend goes around all the state, there is a good chance of TX going blue or GOP winning by 1-2%.

No.

I can see Tarrant being a 2-3% victory for the GOP but Collin being within a point either way.

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Tarrant County will vote to the right of Collin.

If this happens, it will be probably with both counties being blue, so is this trend goes around all the state, there is a good chance of TX going blue or GOP winning by 1-2%.

No.

I can see Tarrant being a 2-3% victory for the GOP but Collin being within a point either way.

Tarrant trending red in 2024? It all depends with the candidate, but I don't think so with Trump

[THG]

Tarrant County will vote to the right of Collin.

If this happens, it will be probably with both counties being blue, so is this trend goes around all the state, there is a good chance of TX going blue or GOP winning by 1-2%.

No.

I can see Tarrant being a 2-3% victory for the GOP but Collin being within a point either way.

Tarrant trending red in 2024? It all depends with the candidate, but I don't think so with Trump

Maybe not but Tarrant is far more working class than Collin or Denton.

[EastwoodS]

This is a long term take that could transpire in 2024 or 2024-2032 but Joe Biden seems to be “George Bushing/ Johnson-ing/ hoovering/“ his party. What seemed like a path to a favorable realignment between 1992-2012 seems to be on the grasp of being a total realignment away from Democrats. Let’s face it: the popularity of the Dems with Obama and Clinton coalitions just isn’t there anymore...
Kamala Harris would literally be a Dan Quayle/ Humphrey long term electoral disaster for the Democrats should she be nominated.

[Burke Bro]

Here are some actual hot takes.

1. The senate map is terrible for Democrats. Republicans either reach a supermajority or come within a few seats of one.
2. At least one Republican legislature in a state the Democratic candidate won will appoint electors that do not vote for that candidate/one Secretary of State will refuse to certify the state results
3. Violence worse than what transpired on January 6 will break out.

[Real Texan Politics]

1. Michigan and Georgia are the two closest states in the entire election, with Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin rounding out the top 6.

2. Alaska will NOT be within 10 this cycle, and neither will South Carolina.

3. Tarrant and Collin counties stay red, but both within 5. This'll very likely be the last time Collin County ever goes red, while Tarrant remains a swing county. Denton will fall into the dems in the 2030s.

4. (WITH DESANTIS ONLY) New Jersey could be the Alaska or Kansas of 2024. It WILL NOT flip, but could be closer to D+10 than D+15. Still likely/safe D.

5. New Mexico and Virginia will (slightly) be within 10, Colorado will not. All will go D, though NM could possibly go R in a landslide.

6. New Hampshire is a tossup for now, but dems have the slight edge.

7. Without Biden on the ticket, Delaware will have a sizable rightward shift, but won't be within 10 (although it'll be close).

8. Trump wins Texas by 3-4 against Biden, 4-5 against Harris. DeSantis wins Texas 5-6 against Biden, 7-8 against Harris.

9. If dems win re-election, they'll do so with less electoral votes than in 2020.

10. Harris at the top of the ticket could cause republicans to crack 70% in West Virginia.

11. No Trump 2020 states are flipping, including North Carolina.

12. A certain former controversial democratic congresswoman and 2020 presidential candidate may possibly endorse DeSantis if he's the nominee. I'll let y'all take a guess

I'll probably post more as they come to mind.

[GregTheGreat657]

(1) Nevada will be a pure tossup
(2) OH, IA, and ME-02 will not be winnable for Democrats unless they are going against someone like MTG.
(3) NH will swing back to roughly D+2 to D+3 with 2004 and 2020, rendering the incumbent Republicans a incumbency disadvantage, although Kerry was a better fit for the state than Gore.

[DabbingSanta]

Hot takes?  Donald Trump loses to Ron DeSantis in the Republican primaries.