Your 2024 Hot Takes?

[BG-NY]

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[THG]

I disagree with all of the above takes, lol. Except maybe the one about MI and PA.

[THG]

1) Democrats will probably collapse with Hispanics even more (particularly in the RGV and Miami)

2) Republicans may get a dead cat’s bounce with college educated whites, but getting to even 2016 margins with those voters will be pretty hard.

3) Republicans getting 60 seats in the senate is possible- though difficult.

4) Democratic turnout will still be relatively high even without Trump, though Republican turnout is favored to be higher.

5) To add to #2 and #4, more educated suburbs that swung left in 2020 will not swing right by much (if at all, and may even continue swinging left), even if Trump isn’t the nominee.

6) Dems will continue to do horrible among working class voters of all races (this kinda adds on to what I already implied with my first point). Even if Nikki Haley is the nominee Biden or whoever will be extremely lucky to get within 6 points of Ohio.

7) Harris would be an awful GE candidate and the DNC knows it.

Tarrant County will vote to the right of Collin.

9) Washington State could conceivably vote to the left of California (though this is much more likely to be true by 28/32, I can genuinely see this happening as early as 24).

10) Colorado could hypothetically vote to the left of Connecticut, RI, and maybe even NJ (again, this is probably truer for the 2030’s but I can potentially see this happening as early as 2024).

[Devils30]

1) Democrats will probably collapse with Hispanics even more (particularly in the RGV and Miami)

2) Republicans may get a dead cat’s bounce with college educated whites, but getting to even 2016 margins with those voters will be pretty hard.

3) Republicans getting 60 seats in the senate is possible- though difficult.

4) Democratic turnout will still be relatively high even without Trump, though Republican turnout is favored to be higher.

5) To add to #2 and #4, more educated suburbs that swung left in 2020 will not swing right by much (if at all, and may even continue swinging left), even if Trump isn’t the nominee.

6) Dems will continue to do horrible among working class voters of all races (this kinda adds on to what I already implied with my first point). Even if Nikki Haley is the nominee Biden or whoever will be extremely lucky to get within 6 points of Ohio.

7) Harris would be an awful GE candidate and the DNC knows it.

Tarrant County will vote to the right of Collin.

9) Washington State could conceivably vote to the left of California (though this is much more likely to be true by 28/32, I can genuinely see this happening as early as 24).

10) Colorado could hypothetically vote to the left of Connecticut, RI, and maybe even NJ (again, this is probably truer for the 2030’s but I can potentially see this happening as early as 2024).

1) Dems get a modest bounce with Hispanics, not enough at all to reverse Miami-Dade, RGV trends but useful enough to give Biden a 6% win in Nevada and 4% in Arizona.

2) Suburbs continue to trend Dem, Biden flips Delaware, OH, Hamilton, IN and Hunterdon, NJ.

3) Texas votes to the left of Florida. Biden loses TX by less than 2% and FL by around 2.5%.

4) North Carolina is the closest state, Biden wins it by 12,000 votes.

5) Wisconsin and Pennsylvania vote to the right of the tipping point, Georgia to the left. Arizona is the 2024 tipping point state.

6) Biden gives serious thought to ditching Harris and the DNC runs multiple secret polls on the idea of replacing her, ultimately deciding shaking things up isn't worth the trouble.

7) Alaska is to the left of Ohio and Iowa and around 5% for the GOP.

8. Biden wins the popular vote by 6.5% and electoral college 319-219 with all 2020 states + NC. Historians compare 2020/2024 to 1896/1900.

9) Multiple members of state legislatures take extended vacations and simply ignore Trump's requests, he finds a few people willing to do his bidding but nowhere close to calling special sessions to overturn results.

10) A high-ranking member of Trumpworld is connected to a domestic terror plot post 2024 election such as a militia group storming a state Capitol. This person receives life in Supermax and multiple GOP members of Congress resign in disgrace.

[THG]

1) Democrats will probably collapse with Hispanics even more (particularly in the RGV and Miami)

2) Republicans may get a dead cat’s bounce with college educated whites, but getting to even 2016 margins with those voters will be pretty hard.

3) Republicans getting 60 seats in the senate is possible- though difficult.

4) Democratic turnout will still be relatively high even without Trump, though Republican turnout is favored to be higher.

5) To add to #2 and #4, more educated suburbs that swung left in 2020 will not swing right by much (if at all, and may even continue swinging left), even if Trump isn’t the nominee.

6) Dems will continue to do horrible among working class voters of all races (this kinda adds on to what I already implied with my first point). Even if Nikki Haley is the nominee Biden or whoever will be extremely lucky to get within 6 points of Ohio.

7) Harris would be an awful GE candidate and the DNC knows it.

Tarrant County will vote to the right of Collin.

9) Washington State could conceivably vote to the left of California (though this is much more likely to be true by 28/32, I can genuinely see this happening as early as 24).

10) Colorado could hypothetically vote to the left of Connecticut, RI, and maybe even NJ (again, this is probably truer for the 2030’s but I can potentially see this happening as early as 2024).

1) Dems get a modest bounce with Hispanics, not enough at all to reverse Miami-Dade, RGV trends but useful enough to give Biden a 6% win in Nevada and 4% in Arizona.

2) Suburbs continue to trend Dem, Biden flips Delaware, OH, Hamilton, IN and Hunterdon, NJ.

3) Texas votes to the left of Florida. Biden loses TX by less than 2% and FL by around 2.5%.

4) North Carolina is the closest state, Biden wins it by 12,000 votes.

5) Wisconsin and Pennsylvania vote to the right of the tipping point, Georgia to the left. Arizona is the 2024 tipping point state.

6) Biden gives serious thought to ditching Harris and the DNC runs multiple secret polls on the idea of replacing her, ultimately deciding shaking things up isn't worth the trouble.

7) Alaska is to the left of Ohio and Iowa and around 5% for the GOP.

8. Biden wins the popular vote by 6.5% and electoral college 319-219 with all 2020 states + NC. Historians compare 2020/2024 to 1896/1900.

9) Multiple members of state legislatures take extended vacations and simply ignore Trump's requests, he finds a few people willing to do his bidding but nowhere close to calling special sessions to overturn results.

10) A high-ranking member of Trumpworld is connected to a domestic terror plot post 2024 election such as a militia group storming a state Capitol. This person receives life in Supermax and multiple GOP members of Congress resign in disgrace.

Ehhh....

1) I could possibly see Democrats stop the bleeding with Hispanics, but those Nevada and Arizona results are some of the most pathetic wishcasting I have read (even in 2016 NV was D+2 lol!)

2) If Trump is the nominee? It could happen. I don’t have White-College voters swinging back Republican to even 2016 levels regardless of who the nominee is, however.

3) I don’t have Texas voting to the left of Florida until 2028 or 2032. Neither state will be within 5 points IMO.

4) If Trump or DeSantis or whoever continues gaining in the rurals and exurbs, the GOP can afford some losses in the metro areas. For the GOP to lose NC would require them to underperform in the rurals and urban/suburban areas, and while that is possible, I don’t see Trump (who is the nominee in your scenario) underperforming in the rurals of this state.

5) Very reasonable.

6) I can see this happening.

7) Nope. Alaska isn’t voting to the left of Ohio or Iowa until 2028 and is still safe R due to the oil industry.

This is a possibility but not likely IMO. I think it depends on a lot of factors though.

9) I can possibly see this happening.

10) This reads like a bizzare fantasy/pipedream. Obviously I hope it doesn’t actually happen.

[THG]

Another hot take: Nevada is a very possible flip if the Republicans play their cards right. I don’t get why people are so bullish about Democratic chances in NC (which trends absolutely nowhere) compared to Nevada, which is actually a somewhat red trending state where the Reid Machine is in the process of being replaced by the DSA.

[Devils30]

1) Democrats will probably collapse with Hispanics even more (particularly in the RGV and Miami)

2) Republicans may get a dead cat’s bounce with college educated whites, but getting to even 2016 margins with those voters will be pretty hard.

3) Republicans getting 60 seats in the senate is possible- though difficult.

4) Democratic turnout will still be relatively high even without Trump, though Republican turnout is favored to be higher.

5) To add to #2 and #4, more educated suburbs that swung left in 2020 will not swing right by much (if at all, and may even continue swinging left), even if Trump isn’t the nominee.

6) Dems will continue to do horrible among working class voters of all races (this kinda adds on to what I already implied with my first point). Even if Nikki Haley is the nominee Biden or whoever will be extremely lucky to get within 6 points of Ohio.

7) Harris would be an awful GE candidate and the DNC knows it.

Tarrant County will vote to the right of Collin.

9) Washington State could conceivably vote to the left of California (though this is much more likely to be true by 28/32, I can genuinely see this happening as early as 24).

10) Colorado could hypothetically vote to the left of Connecticut, RI, and maybe even NJ (again, this is probably truer for the 2030’s but I can potentially see this happening as early as 2024).

1) Dems get a modest bounce with Hispanics, not enough at all to reverse Miami-Dade, RGV trends but useful enough to give Biden a 6% win in Nevada and 4% in Arizona.

2) Suburbs continue to trend Dem, Biden flips Delaware, OH, Hamilton, IN and Hunterdon, NJ.

3) Texas votes to the left of Florida. Biden loses TX by less than 2% and FL by around 2.5%.

4) North Carolina is the closest state, Biden wins it by 12,000 votes.

5) Wisconsin and Pennsylvania vote to the right of the tipping point, Georgia to the left. Arizona is the 2024 tipping point state.

6) Biden gives serious thought to ditching Harris and the DNC runs multiple secret polls on the idea of replacing her, ultimately deciding shaking things up isn't worth the trouble.

7) Alaska is to the left of Ohio and Iowa and around 5% for the GOP.

8. Biden wins the popular vote by 6.5% and electoral college 319-219 with all 2020 states + NC. Historians compare 2020/2024 to 1896/1900.

9) Multiple members of state legislatures take extended vacations and simply ignore Trump's requests, he finds a few people willing to do his bidding but nowhere close to calling special sessions to overturn results.

10) A high-ranking member of Trumpworld is connected to a domestic terror plot post 2024 election such as a militia group storming a state Capitol. This person receives life in Supermax and multiple GOP members of Congress resign in disgrace.

Ehhh....

1) I could possibly see Democrats stop the bleeding with Hispanics, but those Nevada and Arizona results are some of the most pathetic wishcasting I have read (even in 2016 NV was D+2 lol!)

2) If Trump is the nominee? It could happen. I don’t have White-College voters swinging back Republican to even 2016 levels regardless of who the nominee is, however.

3) I don’t have Texas voting to the left of Florida until 2028 or 2032. Neither state will be within 5 points IMO.

4) If Trump or DeSantis or whoever continues gaining in the rurals and exurbs, the GOP can afford some losses in the metro areas. For the GOP to lose NC would require them to underperform in the rurals and urban/suburban areas, and while that is possible, I don’t see Trump (who is the nominee in your scenario) underperforming in the rurals of this state.

5) Very reasonable.

6) I can see this happening.

7) Nope. Alaska isn’t voting to the left of Ohio or Iowa until 2028 and is still safe R due to the oil industry.

This is a possibility but not likely IMO. I think it depends on a lot of factors though.

9) I can possibly see this happening.

10) This reads like a bizzare fantasy/pipedream. Obviously I hope it doesn’t actually happen.

I hope I’m wrong on 10. I don’t put this stuff beyond thugs like Roger Stone, Enrique Tarrio and Don Jr though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are on their way to losing GA, that doesn't have a Senate race

They win AZ, and 278 map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A few of mine to start off:

(1) Kamala Harris is an underrated candidate
(2) Ron DeSantis is an overrated candidate
(3) Ohio, Iowa, ME-02 are not safe R
(4) MI will vote to the right of PA if Biden is nominee
(5) Hispanics will trend D (2004/2020 were incumbency)

We have never had a female Prez, since when is a female candidate underrated and oh yeah Hillary was supposed to pull Strickland, Evan Bath, Feingold and McGinty across the finish line and they all lost miserably

She went to broken border once and illegal immigrants are still flooding in, because D's want to pass an amnesty bill thru Reconciliation

[Del Tachi]

Republicans win the popular vote against Harris yee yee

[Utah Neolib]

Georgia is not safe D

[Hope For A New Era]

1. The only states with any real chance of flipping are NC and WI.

2. The possibilities include no flips, NC flipping, or WI flipping. They will not both flip simultaneously, and, in fact, I predict that they will have near-identical margins. Furthermore, NC will remain to the left of FL regardless of whether it flips or not, and TX may be to the left of FL as well, though it is unlikely to flip.

3. Wisconsin will trend slightly right, Michigan will have very little trend in either direction, and Pennsylvania will trend slightly left.

4. Harris would do only slightly worse than Biden would, even in a Harris vs. DeSantis matchup (which would produce the weakest D performance of all potential matchups). However, considering how consequential a 1-point shift in the popular vote in 2020 could have been, Democrats would be wise to stick with Biden for 2024, unless he is showing serious signs of health decline.

5. The national popular vote margin will most likely be slightly to the left of 2020. I would put the range at between D+3 and D+6. Historians looking back on this time will see a repeat of 1896/1900. In essence, I believe that party switches by individuals between now and 2024 will ultimately more or less cancel each other out, and therefore that the margin change will be dictated primarily by generational replacement (this is arguably what led to Biden's victories in the Big Three in 2020).

6. The Republican Electoral College advantage will not significantly change until Texas becomes competitive in a neutral national environment (2028 at the earliest, more likely 2032).

7. Hispanics won't vote significantly differently from 2020 in most of the country, because the Hispanic pro-incumbent swing and a continued movement to the right will cancel each other out. I'm curious to see how it goes in the two big swing areas, because Miami swung by persuasion while South Texas swung by turnout. I suspect they will behave differently, but haven't the slightest idea how.

8. Downballot Democrats will underperform the top of the ticket again, regardless of who the presidential candidates are.

9. Voter turnout will be almost as high as 2020, but not higher. If 2020 is surpassed, it will take an open-seat race to do it.

10. There will be a "Cold Civil War" sort of national mood during and after 2024 - tense, but in a way that creates a strange sort of calm (as the USA/USSR Cold War did globally). Even though party polarization and party identity will remain strong, the actual policy positions of the parties and politicians will slowly begin to converge, sometimes even reversing their former roles even while seeming to move further apart. Most people will not really notice this happening. In fact, it's happening as we speak, and most people haven't noticed. (for example, has anyone really been paying attention to the fact that the left is now almost more "sexually conservative" than the right?)

11. Reaganism will remain dead, as it should be.


Also, here's a wishcast that I really hope comes true, because I believe this country's long term survival depends on it:

12. 2020 is peak polarization.

[EastwoodS]

Hispanics were not an incumbency thing, that’s idiotic; Hispanics were trending R in 2018 and more newer Hispanics coming to the US are voting R at higher rates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Latino thing was thought that Latinos in TX and FL was gonna automatically gonna vote D inn2020 with HEGAR due to fact DC and PR STATEHOOD, TX is Mexican and Cubans, not PR are dominant in FL as they care about the Cuban situation


It's not gonna be a Blue wave the only blue wave is D's keeping the Senate and winning D Govs

[Ferguson97]

1. North Carolina is overrated as a flip. It's still more likely to flip to the Democrats than any other state, but IIRC Democrats still have a lot of room to fall with rural voters.

2. Pennsylvania is more likely to stay with the Democrats than Georgia.

3. Partisanship is high enough that the idea of certain candidates being stronger/weaker is largely overrated, barring severe outliers like AOC or Charlie Baker. Biden is another exception due to being an incumbent.

4. Turnout won't go down as much as people think, for Democrats or Republicans.

5. Florida is still more likely to flip than Texas.

[DCUS]

10. There will be a "Cold Civil War" sort of national mood during and after 2024 - tense, but in a way that creates a strange sort of calm (as the USA/USSR Cold War did globally). Even though party polarization and party identity will remain strong, the actual policy positions of the parties and politicians will slowly begin to converge, sometimes even reversing their former roles even while seeming to move further apart. Most people will not really notice this happening. In fact, it's happening as we speak, and most people haven't noticed. (for example, has anyone really been paying attention to the fact that the left is now almost more "sexually conservative" than the right?)

Is this "sexual conservatism" thing apart from the woke Internet? The issues of abortion and LGBT will always make the left seem more sexually libertine than the right.

[S019]

I guess some of these aren't "bold," but whatever

1. Florida is decided by less than 2 points
2. Democrats lose Iowa by 10-15 points
3. Wisconsin votes Republican by more than a point
4. Texas is the closest state in the country
5. Fueled by Democratic swings in Maricopa County, Arizona votes left of Nevada for the first time since 1996
6. Georgia votes Democratic by at least 3 points
7. Sherrod Brown does worse than the Democratic Senate nominees in both Florida and Texas
8. Control of the House flips to the Democrats following the Republicans gaining it in 2022

[Devils30]

I guess some of these aren't "bold," but whatever

1. Florida is decided by less than 2 points
2. Democrats lose Iowa by 10-15 points
3. Wisconsin votes Republican by more than a point
4. Texas is the closest state in the country
5. Fueled by Democratic swings in Maricopa County, Arizona votes left of Nevada for the first time since 1996
6. Georgia votes Democratic by at least 3 points
7. Sherrod Brown does worse than the Democratic Senate nominees in both Florida and Texas
8. Control of the House flips to the Democrats following the Republicans gaining it in 2022

1) Quite likely, especially if it's a D+5-6 year
2) IA still has more room for Dems to fall.
3) if IA is 10-15% R, WI is probably red
4) Indicates a Dem win in 2024 either way
5) Possible
6) Yep, people who assume GA is bouncing back are naive about trends. Places like Henry, Douglas, Gwinnett are just going to get into the high 60s for Dems fairly quickly. These trends in metro Atlanta began around 2008 and just don't reverse or even stall overnight.
7) Dems are screwed in MT, WV, OH senate in 2024.
8. Underrated possibility, perhaps Rs have a weak midterm but still get a 220-215 majority or so. Not hard to see this GOP doing stupid things like government shutdowns and Rs in districts like CA-39, 48, NJ-7 becoming punching bags for the Dems.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Trump being off the ballot would hurt Democratic turnout more than GOP turnout, particularly in the midterms.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

-Georgia votes to the right of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

-The sorts of suburbs that are still highly Republican despite significant Democratic swings in 2016 and 2020 swing and trend Republican.

-Neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden run for second terms.

-New Mexico is closer than Texas, which remains to the right of Florida.

-Colorado is the third most Democratic state west of the Appalachians (behind California and Hawaii).

-Strongest Republican Trends: NM, MO, DE, IA, NV
-Strongest Democratic Trends: AK, HI, CO, LA, MT

[Hope For A New Era]

10. There will be a "Cold Civil War" sort of national mood during and after 2024 - tense, but in a way that creates a strange sort of calm (as the USA/USSR Cold War did globally). Even though party polarization and party identity will remain strong, the actual policy positions of the parties and politicians will slowly begin to converge, sometimes even reversing their former roles even while seeming to move further apart. Most people will not really notice this happening. In fact, it's happening as we speak, and most people haven't noticed. (for example, has anyone really been paying attention to the fact that the left is now almost more "sexually conservative" than the right?)

Is this "sexual conservatism" thing apart from the woke Internet? The issues of abortion and LGBT will always make the left seem more sexually libertine than the right.

It's everything.

Think of this, for example. Right now, different states have different ages of consent - some are 16, some are 17, some are 18.

Which party would have been more likely to support an effort to get all states to raise it to 18 (in a similar vein to what was done to get states to raise their drinking ages) in, say, 2002?

Which party would be more likely to support it now?


Just one example.

[Roll Roons]

-Colorado is the third most Democratic state west of the Appalachians (behind California and Hawaii).

You think Colorado votes to the left of Washington? I could see it voting to the left of Illinois, New Jersey and Oregon, but Washington seems like a pretty big stretch.

[THG]

-Colorado is the third most Democratic state west of the Appalachians (behind California and Hawaii).

You think Colorado votes to the left of Washington? I could see it voting to the left of Illinois, New Jersey and Oregon, but Washington seems like a pretty big stretch.

Exactly this.

I think if Colorado swings heavily Democrat again in 2024, so do Oregon and Washington. Colorado and specifically the Denver area are politically and demographically more similar to Portland/Seattle than anything else.

[indietraveler]

We end up with a relatively boring election cycle - especially compared to the Trump era. Obviously, Trump is not the nominee. Though the media tries to make it a horse race, Biden wins comfortably.

NV, AZ, WI and NC are the closet states.

[THG]

Trump being off the ballot would hurt Democratic turnout more than GOP turnout, particularly in the midterms.

This shouldn't be a hot take. It is however, very accurate, not only for 2022 but also 2024.