Most likely to lose renomination?
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  Most likely to lose renomination?
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Poll
Question: Which of these three is the most likely to lose renomination?
#1
Liz Cheney
 
#2
Adam Kinzinger
 
#3
Anthony Gonzalez
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 46

Author Topic: Most likely to lose renomination?  (Read 517 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: July 24, 2021, 03:35:16 AM »

Which of these three GOP congresspeople is the most likely to lose renomination?
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beesley
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« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2021, 05:10:00 AM »

It's interesting as that the most likely to lose renomination isn't necessarily the most likely to perform the worst or be the least popular.
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Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2021, 05:31:27 AM »

Liz Cheney seems to be getting a lot more media coverage and defining herself more by her anti-Trump stance, so her. In fact, I'm starting to wonder if she decided to retire before January 6 and so said "to hell with it" and stuck with her conscience for this Congress, otherwise (sadly) her actions don't make much sense.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2021, 06:09:50 AM »

Kinzinger
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MarkD
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« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2021, 10:48:02 AM »
« Edited: July 24, 2021, 04:26:35 PM by MarkD »

I think Gonzalez is the most vulnerable, for these reasons.
Cheney's "district" isn't going to change, but Kinzinger's and Gonzalez's districts are both likely to change a lot.
Cheney has, so far, eight opponents, which increases her chance at winning by a simple plurality. Kinzinger has, so far, five opponents, which also means that he has a pretty good chance at winning by plurality. But Gonzalez has only two opponents, which increases the likelihood that one of the two of them is more likely to win the primary.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2021, 05:42:34 PM »

All three, but Cheney will lose the most due to being the most prominent and being in the reddest district by far.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2021, 09:46:13 PM »

Liz Cheney seems to be getting a lot more media coverage and defining herself more by her anti-Trump stance, so her. In fact, I'm starting to wonder if she decided to retire before January 6 and so said "to hell with it" and stuck with her conscience for this Congress, otherwise (sadly) her actions don't make much sense.

She's been actively seeking re-election, so that seems doubtful. It seems more likely that she's just confident of garnering enough Trumpist challengers so as to ensure a split Trumpist field, over which she (relatively) cruises to a plurality victory.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2021, 02:56:28 PM »

I think Gonzalez is the most vulnerable, for these reasons.
Cheney's "district" isn't going to change, but Kinzinger's and Gonzalez's districts are both likely to change a lot.
Cheney has, so far, eight opponents, which increases her chance at winning by a simple plurality. Kinzinger has, so far, five opponents, which also means that he has a pretty good chance at winning by plurality. But Gonzalez has only two opponents, which increases the likelihood that one of the two of them is more likely to win the primary.

But Gonzalez was less vocally anti-Trump than the other two, which I think may be a factor: he voted against a special, 9/11-type of commission to investigate January 6, and the two Republicans who did are Kinzinger and Cheney. I think he might win back a few moderately pro-Trump, or moderate, Republican primary voters. Cheney's in hot water for being anti-Trump; she was even kicked off the third-ranking House position - but, as you said, her saving grace might be the number of opponents she faces.
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