Dem Internal - PA 8 - Fitz by 5

[Keystone Phil]

www.PoliticsPA.com

DCCC Poll:  Fitzpatrick under 50  A new poll conducted by Grove Insight for the DCCC shows Mike Fitzpatrick leading Patrick Murphy by just five points, 43- 38.  The poll pegged President George W. Bush's approval rating at 35.


Their own internals show them losing the big three in SE PA. Gerlach, Weldon and Fitz will win.

[MarkWarner08]

Can I put you down for that? If so, I look forward to seeing how you feel on November 7th.

My Predictions:
Murphy: 52%
Gerlach: 48%

Sestak: 51%
Weldon: 49%

Fitzpatrick: 53%
Murphy: 47%

[Jake]

Ouch. Pat Murphy's down 5% in his internal poll, and Lois is only up 1% in her's. Not looking good.

[MarkWarner08]

Ouch. Pat Murphy's down 5% in his internal poll, and Lois is only up 1% in her's. Not looking good.

Democrats captured 49% of the vote in PA-6 in 2002 and 2004. Are both of you going to tell me that their vote share will go DOWN in what according to many pundits and political scientists is a "Democratic year"?

[Keystone Phil]

Can I put you down for that? If so, I look forward to seeing how you feel on November 7th.

I told you you could put me down for that awhile back. I don't know why you are getting cocky since your side has been hit with major setbacks in your own internal polls. You were the one that basically laughed me off when I said that Gerlach would win. You had some dumb sarcastic response but who is looking dumb now? Lois only up one in her own poll and you mean to tell me that I am the one with the foolish prediction?

Ouch. Pat Murphy's down 5% in his internal poll, and Lois is only up 1% in her's. Not looking good.

Democrats captured 49% of the vote in PA-6 in 2002 and 2004. Are both of you going to tell me that their vote share will go DOWN in what according to many pundits and political scientists is a "Democratic year"?

What don't you get? Turnout won't be nearly as high (I don't care about Rendell. He'll never bring out as many people as a Presidential contest!) and the GOP is actually focused on PA 6 this year. 2004's result was really surprising. The GOP wasn't pumping tons of money in two years ago. It is much different now.

[CultureKing]

What don't you get? Turnout won't be nearly as high (I don't care about Rendell. He'll never bring out as many people as a Presidential contest!) and the GOP is actually focused on PA 6 this year. 2004's result was really surprising. The GOP wasn't pumping tons of money in two years ago. It is much different now.

yes, it is much different, the public is angry at both congress and the bush administration, this congressional election seems to be trending to a much larger turnout than most non-presidential years, also in 2004 dems and republicans were tied in generic polls (yes I know that they dont mean a great deal), and now the dems have probably around 10-14 percent lead there, basically I am predicting any dem canidate will recieve at least a 5% boost if the same match-up was held in 2004

[Keystone Phil]

this congressional election seems to be trending to a much larger turnout than most non-presidential years

That still has nothing to do with the turnout surpassing Presidential election year turnout.

[MarkWarner08]

Can I put you down for that? If so, I look forward to seeing how you feel on November 7th.

I told you you could put me down for that awhile back. I don't know why you are getting cocky since your side has been hit with major setbacks in your own internal polls. You were the one that basically laughed me off when I said that Gerlach would win. You had some dumb sarcastic response but who is looking dumb now? Lois only up one in her own poll and you mean to tell me that I am the one with the foolish prediction?

Ouch. Pat Murphy's down 5% in his internal poll, and Lois is only up 1% in her's. Not looking good.

Democrats captured 49% of the vote in PA-6 in 2002 and 2004. Are both of you going to tell me that their vote share will go DOWN in what according to many pundits and political scientists is a "Democratic year"?

What don't you get? Turnout won't be nearly as high (I don't care about Rendell. He'll never bring out as many people as a Presidential contest!) and the GOP is actually focused on PA 6 this year. 2004's result was really surprising. The GOP wasn't pumping tons of money in two years ago. It is much different now.

Keystone, I'm not "cocky." I'm just going based on what the NRCC says. Roll Call reports that Republicans count PA-6 along with AZ-8, TX-22. IA-1 and CO-7 as seats that are likely "Democratic pickups."

The GOP spent $1.5 million on TV ads that were full of fatuous, spurious and scurrilous assertions about Lois Murphy's record. If that means the "GOP wasn't pumping tons of money," that I don't know what "tons of money" is.

The internal numbers in the "Murphy poll" OVERPOLLED Republicans. This is the Number one target for the DCCC and the NRCC. The Pennsylvania and national climate is anti-Republican. Stu Rothenberg has warned that the Jim Gerlach's of the world are vulnerable to the political miasma that's brewing for the GOP.

I'm not some kind of "hack.' I think Fitzpatrick will win because he's neutralized Iraq as an issue and because of his assiduous constituent service. Weldon reminds of George Gekas or Phil Crane -- not a good place ot being a year like this. Gerlach CANNOT win in a good Democratic year. Lois Murphy has been working hard and has more cash on hand. Check this article which outline yet another reason Gerlach's a goner: http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/local/15559686.htm

[Keystone Phil]

Roll Call reports that Republicans count PA-6 along with AZ-8, TX-22. IA-1 and CO-7 as seats that are likely "Democratic pickups."

Doesn't look that way anymore, does it?

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Ok so they pumped money into the race. They were worried. That doesn't mean it was a guarenteed win for the Dems as you wanted me to believe. By the way, Lois' ads weren't that nice to Gerlach either but I wouldn't expect you to know too much about them. You see, I live here and see more while you...don't.

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There were two Dem sponsored polls. The other one (the one with Murphy up five) most likely means Gerlach is tied or slightly ahead.

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Gerlach a goner? We will see but I think that is very, very wrong.

[Keystone Phil]

Check this article which outline yet another reason Gerlach's a goner: http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/local/15559686.htm

By the way, that article hardly suggests that Gerlach is a goner.

[MarkWarner08]

Check this article which outline yet another reason Gerlach's a goner: http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/local/15559686.htm

By the way, that article hardly suggests that Gerlach is a goner.

The increased turnout in the town of Reading will help Murphy cancel out Gerlach's advantage in Berks county. If Gerlach can't win Berks by a good-sized margin, he will be a goner of Nov. 7th.

Six weeks from now, one of us will be right. I just can't see the Democrats having what most political experts view to  be a "good year" and them not beating Gerlach and Santorum. If you're right about the aforementioned candidates, it most likely means that Casey and Murphy imploded down the stretch.

[TeePee4Prez]

Can I put you down for that? If so, I look forward to seeing how you feel on November 7th.

My Predictions:
Murphy: 52%
Gerlach: 48%

Sestak: 51%
Weldon: 49%

Fitzpatrick: 53%
Murphy: 47%

I can agree to these.  The HDCC should pump more money into PA 8.  I think we have a shot there.  I know Fitzpatrick's moderation is only skin deep and his social views are far to the right of the district.