NH-UNH: Sununu +1 over Hassan, Hassan leads other opponents

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan wins, this is the best they can do with 500 days left

It's interesting no Rs have responded

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup is Tossup.
 Sununu having a +26 favorabilities edge on Hassan but only leading by 1 shows the limit of personal popularity in a time of intense negative partisanship.
As usual dems will try to nationalize the race and make Sununu into a Generic R.

You do realize it that UNH is a D-leaning Pollster! The Polling Industry botched up everything the last 3 Cycles.

But yet the Rs haven't won the NPVI since 2016 and the Congressional Generic ballot since 2014 Rs picked up CO, MT, WV, SD / that yr it was a red map in 2014/ this yr its a Prez map in Senate which benefits Ds

2018 they won the Senate but only won IN, ND and MO

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup is Tossup.
 Sununu having a +26 favorabilities edge on Hassan but only leading by 1 shows the limit of personal popularity in a time of intense negative partisanship.
As usual dems will try to nationalize the race and make Sununu into a Generic R.

You do realize it that UNH is a D-leaning Pollster! The Polling Industry botched up everything the last 3 Cycles.

But yet the Rs haven't won the NPVI since 2016 and the Congressional Generic ballot since 2014 Rs picked up CO, MT, WV, SD / that yr it was a red map in 2014/ this yr its a Prez map in Senate which benefits Ds

2018 they won the Senate but only won IN, ND and MO

This is just utter garbarge what you are saying here. It only favours Democrats if the National Political Environment is in their favour and I doubt it will be.

Nationalizing a Race like this like @CityofSinners wants Democrats to do is the worst thing they could do. Good Luck trying to tie Sununu to Trump when the Governor is one of the most Anti-Trump Governors in the Country.

Jeanne Shaheen beat Scott Brown in 2014 because she localized the Race. Kay Hagan kept the NC Senate Race close that year by tying Tillis to the Republican State Legislature.

I am amazed how many Atlas Democratic Wannabees have no real understanding of US Politics at all!

The Generic Ballot test the Environment, if you didn't know that, it's garbage to you because the Rs haven't won it, guess what the Rs won it in 2010/2014/ in landslide Congressional ballot test and they won Congress Rs have tied the Generic ballot 42/42 but they have lost it by 9 pts

Rs kept quoting the six pt Sununu poll now it's only 1 other than you they have nothing to say

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup is Tossup.
 Sununu having a +26 favorabilities edge on Hassan but only leading by 1 shows the limit of personal popularity in a time of intense negative partisanship.
As usual dems will try to nationalize the race and make Sununu into a Generic R.

You do realize it that UNH is a D-leaning Pollster! The Polling Industry botched up everything the last 3 Cycles.

But yet the Rs haven't won the NPVI since 2016 and the Congressional Generic ballot since 2014 Rs picked up CO, MT, WV, SD / that yr it was a red map in 2014/ this yr its a Prez map in Senate which benefits Ds

2018 they won the Senate but only won IN, ND and MO

This is just utter garbarge what you are saying here. It only favours Democrats if the National Political Environment is in their favour and I doubt it will be.

Nationalizing a Race like this like @CityofSinners wants Democrats to do is the worst thing they could do. Good Luck trying to tie Sununu to Trump when the Governor is one of the most Anti-Trump Governors in the Country.

Jeanne Shaheen beat Scott Brown in 2014 because she localized the Race. Kay Hagan kept the NC Senate Race close that year by tying Tillis to the Republican State Legislature.

I am amazed how many Atlas Democratic Wannabees have no real understanding of US Politics at all!

How do we have no understanding of politics and Rs have lost consistently have you seen a recent Election other than 2010/2014 where Rs have won the Atlas user map Predictions, no they haven't

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a Neutral or Dem Leaning Environment and Biden is at 52(48 D's will win NH

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R

Ha, Ha

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R

Did you know Biden has the Exact same Approvals as he did on Election night 50/45 Gallup 7/23/21 v 51(46% 11/2020 NPVI, we will have 51 D's and GA goes to a Runoff, Biden won by seven NH and we will win AZ, PA and WI

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Snowlabrador is a Discord Poster, and Milineienial Moderate is just like him, they believe Rs are gonna win no matter what

Milineienial Moderate and Snowlabrador said GA was gonna stay R no way GA elects two Ds and look what happened

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The fact that a Democratic incumbent trailing (even if it’s within the margin of error in this survey) or even finding herself in a close race in what was by far the most Democratic of the four battleground states (GA/AZ/NV/NH) is considered reassuring news for Democrats is a little weird, especially when there’s (apparently, if one actually doesn’t treat polling with a healthy dose of skepticism) been very little change in Biden's nationwide standing since his inauguration that might have benefited Republicans. I’m not saying that this is a "good" poll for Republicans or that there aren’t some warning signs in here for the GOP, but the issue here is more that many people/posters had a completely unrealistic initial view of Republican prospects in this race — NH was never (considerably) more likely to go R for federal office than AZ or PA, and the strong/stubborn D lean of the state has really solidified during the last decade, making what happened in 2010 about as relevant to our current environment as the VA/NJ races in 2009.

Based on blue state partisanship alone, this was never going to be an easy flip for the GOP, but none of this means that Sununu's brand will be nearly as easy to dismantle as some here have suggested (the takes about how hitting him with tens of millions worth of negative ads that paint him as a Trump/McConnell puppet will turn this into a Lean D race are reminiscent of the ME-SEN 2020 takes) or that Hassan has much room for error herself (this is one of the very few if not the only state where even public polling has indicated a non-negligible erosion of D support since 2020, as Biden's approval does seem to be very close to 50/50 right now instead of the +7.5 margin by which he won the state). It should also be pointed out that polls have underestimated Sununu's strength in all three of his races, even when they got the presidential vote right (2020). I’ve always had this as a Tossup and will keep it that way for the foreseeable future, but it’s also easy to see Republicans flipping the Senate without this state if partisanship wins out (and D.C. isn’t added). I’d still bet on Sununu if forced to choose, though (mostly due to the combination of a fairly aggressive D trifecta & his superior "candidate quality", but the state's partisanship won’t make it an easy win). It’s cute that NH and IA were considered two of the "most elastic" states as recently as 2018, though — shows you what a hollow, nebulous concept elasticity/inelasticity is.

Also, the comparison with Bullock is misguided for a lot of reasons — Sununu would be a 50/50 bet at the very worst if he replicated Bullock's overperformance over his party's presidential nominee;  it took a really prolonged and concerted effort and a lot of soundbites/missteps from a futile, damaging presidential campaign to dismantle Bullock's brand; Daines' disapprovals were never as close to 50% as Hassan's are, etc.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/


Biden has the same exact Approvals as he did on Election night it was 51/46% and it's 51/43% now, we will win NH

It's a 291 map with GA looking vulnerable due to Runoff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oh no, I don't think Sununu's going to lose because it's a federal race. I think Sununu is going to lose because he has a hard record of extremism now that Democrats can run on.

Of course, this all bets on the NHDP actually deciding to make his extremism an issue. Which they've failed to do so far (see: education).

It depends on the D nominee for Gov too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know Scott Brown isn't Sununu, but Shaheen win when the Rs were in control of the House in 2014/ NH and Rs are slight favs to takeover the H.

NH isn't ME that have entrenched R Sens like Collins and Snowe, it's NH that elected Shaheen as Gov and Sen and it's been a long time since NH had an R Sen John SUNUNU in 2008

This race will hinge on whom D's nominate for Govs

Collins IS DONE IN 2026 DUE TO OBSTRUCTION TO VR AND FILIBUSTER THATS IN PART WHY LEPAGE IS LOOSING, DS ARENT LOSING ME 2 GOLDEN OR NH 1 PAPPAS

Collins wasn't on record until 2021 to Filibuster of VR, she won in 2020 due to votes on Cares Act

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

probably ends up being a Democrat win by 3-5%.

Eh, it's going to be a red wave. The fact that Ron Kind is retiring speaks volumes.

Not if Dems can make infrastructure an effective campaign issue. Let's be optimistic here.

That's a big ask for me!

Biden has the same exact Approvals he had on Election night and even on Election night it was close, Hassan will win