NH-UNH: Sununu +1 over Hassan, Hassan leads other opponents
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  NH-UNH: Sununu +1 over Hassan, Hassan leads other opponents
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Author Topic: NH-UNH: Sununu +1 over Hassan, Hassan leads other opponents  (Read 3088 times)
Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« on: July 22, 2021, 09:07:33 AM »

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/663/

Chris Sununu (R) 49%
Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 48%

Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 51%
Don Bolduc (R) 41%

Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 49%
Kelly Ayotte (R) 45%

Favorabilities
Hassan - 37/40
Sununu - 48/25
Bolduc - 11/23
Ayotte - 26/35
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CityofSinners
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« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2021, 09:19:28 AM »

Tossup is Tossup.
 Sununu having a +26 favorabilities edge on Hassan but only leading by 1 shows the limit of personal popularity in a time of intense negative partisanship.
As usual dems will try to nationalize the race and make Sununu into a Generic R.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2021, 09:29:07 AM »

Huh, seems like a not-so-bad poll for Hassan considering the massive favorability edge Sununununu holds.

The dilemma Sunununu faces is whether he wants to run for reelection as governor, which he is guaranteed to win, or run a Senate race where his chances are about 50/50.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2021, 10:08:10 AM »

If that's all he can manage then it's clear that he's not the lock to win this seat like everyone has been claiming. A one point lead can be wiped out with a few negative ads about how he'll be Mitch McConnell's lackey.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2021, 10:29:36 AM »

Huh, seems like a not-so-bad poll for Hassan considering the massive favorability edge Sununununu holds.

The dilemma Sunununu faces is whether he wants to run for reelection as governor, which he is guaranteed to win, or run a Senate race where his chances are about 50/50.
He's not even an attorney and has never been a legislator before.

He knows being a senator is not going to be fun and probably is dragging his feet. Similar situation to Hickenlooper really. Except unlike Hickenlooper, NH has no term limits on the governors mansion.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2021, 10:33:51 AM »

This appears to be further evidence that Sununu would turn into the Republican version of Steve Bullock should he decide to run for Senate.
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SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2021, 10:36:07 AM »

I assume the undecideds are Republican. Hassan probably loses by 1-2 points.
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JG
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« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2021, 11:14:35 AM »

I assume the undecideds are Republican. Hassan probably loses by 1-2 points.

Based on what? Logically, wouldn't the undecideds tend to be democrats who are torn between voting for their democrat senator or their popular republican governor?
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Person Man
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« Reply #8 on: July 22, 2021, 11:18:48 AM »

What does the Gov race look like if Sununu runs?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: July 22, 2021, 11:28:03 AM »
« Edited: July 22, 2021, 11:39:03 AM by Mr. Kanye West »

Hassan wins, this is the best they can do with 500 days left

It's interesting no Rs have responded
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Pollster
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« Reply #10 on: July 22, 2021, 12:06:16 PM »

Very peculiar to see such low figures all around for favorability/unfavorability despite the ballot tests all carrying a believable number of undecideds.

Suggests either weird question wording, or an extremely partisan electorate, or both.
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Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: July 22, 2021, 12:19:12 PM »

Very peculiar to see such low figures all around for favorability/unfavorability despite the ballot tests all carrying a believable number of undecideds.

Suggests either weird question wording, or an extremely partisan electorate, or both.

The favorabilites also had a "Neutral" and "Don't know enough to say" option FWIW. These were the numbers with favorable/unfavorable/neutral/don't know enough in respective order-

Hassan - 37/40/17/6
Sununu - 48/25/22/4
Bolduc - 11/16/23/50
Ayotte - 26/35/25/15
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: July 22, 2021, 12:30:42 PM »

Tossup is Tossup.
 Sununu having a +26 favorabilities edge on Hassan but only leading by 1 shows the limit of personal popularity in a time of intense negative partisanship.
As usual dems will try to nationalize the race and make Sununu into a Generic R.
You do realize it that UNH is a D-leaning Pollster! The Polling Industry botched up everything the last 3 Cycles.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #13 on: July 22, 2021, 12:35:10 PM »

Tossup is Tossup.
 Sununu having a +26 favorabilities edge on Hassan but only leading by 1 shows the limit of personal popularity in a time of intense negative partisanship.
As usual dems will try to nationalize the race and make Sununu into a Generic R.
You do realize it that UNH is a D-leaning Pollster! The Polling Industry botched up everything the last 3 Cycles.

But yet the Rs haven't won the NPVI since 2016 and the Congressional Generic ballot since 2014 Rs picked up CO, MT, WV, SD / that yr it was a red map in 2014/ this yr its a Prez map in Senate which benefits Ds

2018 they won the Senate but only won IN, ND and MO
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Ritz
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« Reply #14 on: July 22, 2021, 12:52:24 PM »

Tossup is Tossup.
 Sununu having a +26 favorabilities edge on Hassan but only leading by 1 shows the limit of personal popularity in a time of intense negative partisanship.
As usual dems will try to nationalize the race and make Sununu into a Generic R.
You do realize it that UNH is a D-leaning Pollster! The Polling Industry botched up everything the last 3 Cycles.

They had a partisan bias of D+0.7 in 2020.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: July 22, 2021, 12:58:29 PM »

Tossup is Tossup.
 Sununu having a +26 favorabilities edge on Hassan but only leading by 1 shows the limit of personal popularity in a time of intense negative partisanship.
As usual dems will try to nationalize the race and make Sununu into a Generic R.
You do realize it that UNH is a D-leaning Pollster! The Polling Industry botched up everything the last 3 Cycles.

But yet the Rs haven't won the NPVI since 2016 and the Congressional Generic ballot since 2014 Rs picked up CO, MT, WV, SD / that yr it was a red map in 2014/ this yr its a Prez map in Senate which benefits Ds

2018 they won the Senate but only won IN, ND and MO
This is just utter garbarge what you are saying here. It only favours Democrats if the National Political Environment is in their favour and I doubt it will be.

Nationalizing a Race like this like @CityofSinners wants Democrats to do is the worst thing they could do. Good Luck trying to tie Sununu to Trump when the Governor is one of the most Anti-Trump Governors in the Country.

Jeanne Shaheen beat Scott Brown in 2014 because she localized the Race. Kay Hagan kept the NC Senate Race close that year by tying Tillis to the Republican State Legislature.

I am amazed how many Atlas Democratic Wannabees have no real understanding of US Politics at all!
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: July 22, 2021, 12:59:40 PM »

Tossup is Tossup.
 Sununu having a +26 favorabilities edge on Hassan but only leading by 1 shows the limit of personal popularity in a time of intense negative partisanship.
As usual dems will try to nationalize the race and make Sununu into a Generic R.
You do realize it that UNH is a D-leaning Pollster! The Polling Industry botched up everything the last 3 Cycles.

They had a partisan bias of D+0.7 in 2020.
Any University Pollster should be taken with a huge grain of salt these Days. They didn't do well at all!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: July 22, 2021, 01:04:39 PM »

Tossup is Tossup.
 Sununu having a +26 favorabilities edge on Hassan but only leading by 1 shows the limit of personal popularity in a time of intense negative partisanship.
As usual dems will try to nationalize the race and make Sununu into a Generic R.
You do realize it that UNH is a D-leaning Pollster! The Polling Industry botched up everything the last 3 Cycles.

But yet the Rs haven't won the NPVI since 2016 and the Congressional Generic ballot since 2014 Rs picked up CO, MT, WV, SD / that yr it was a red map in 2014/ this yr its a Prez map in Senate which benefits Ds

2018 they won the Senate but only won IN, ND and MO
This is just utter garbarge what you are saying here. It only favours Democrats if the National Political Environment is in their favour and I doubt it will be.

Nationalizing a Race like this like @CityofSinners wants Democrats to do is the worst thing they could do. Good Luck trying to tie Sununu to Trump when the Governor is one of the most Anti-Trump Governors in the Country.

Jeanne Shaheen beat Scott Brown in 2014 because she localized the Race. Kay Hagan kept the NC Senate Race close that year by tying Tillis to the Republican State Legislature.

I am amazed how many Atlas Democratic Wannabees have no real understanding of US Politics at all!

The Generic Ballot test the Environment, if you didn't know that, it's garbage to you because the Rs haven't won it, guess what the Rs won it in 2010/2014/ in landslide Congressional ballot test and they won Congress Rs have tied the Generic ballot 42/42 but they have lost it by 9 pts

Rs kept quoting the six pt Sununu poll now it's only 1 other than you they have nothing to say
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #18 on: July 22, 2021, 01:06:58 PM »

Tossup is Tossup.
 Sununu having a +26 favorabilities edge on Hassan but only leading by 1 shows the limit of personal popularity in a time of intense negative partisanship.
As usual dems will try to nationalize the race and make Sununu into a Generic R.
You do realize it that UNH is a D-leaning Pollster! The Polling Industry botched up everything the last 3 Cycles.

But yet the Rs haven't won the NPVI since 2016 and the Congressional Generic ballot since 2014 Rs picked up CO, MT, WV, SD / that yr it was a red map in 2014/ this yr its a Prez map in Senate which benefits Ds

2018 they won the Senate but only won IN, ND and MO
This is just utter garbarge what you are saying here. It only favours Democrats if the National Political Environment is in their favour and I doubt it will be.

Nationalizing a Race like this like @CityofSinners wants Democrats to do is the worst thing they could do. Good Luck trying to tie Sununu to Trump when the Governor is one of the most Anti-Trump Governors in the Country.

Jeanne Shaheen beat Scott Brown in 2014 because she localized the Race. Kay Hagan kept the NC Senate Race close that year by tying Tillis to the Republican State Legislature.

I am amazed how many Atlas Democratic Wannabees have no real understanding of US Politics at all!

How do we have no understanding of politics and Rs have lost consistently have you seen a recent Election other than 2010/2014 where Rs have won the Atlas user map Predictions, no they haven't
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: July 22, 2021, 02:07:58 PM »

Tossup is Tossup.
 Sununu having a +26 favorabilities edge on Hassan but only leading by 1 shows the limit of personal popularity in a time of intense negative partisanship.
As usual dems will try to nationalize the race and make Sununu into a Generic R.
You do realize it that UNH is a D-leaning Pollster! The Polling Industry botched up everything the last 3 Cycles.

But yet the Rs haven't won the NPVI since 2016 and the Congressional Generic ballot since 2014 Rs picked up CO, MT, WV, SD / that yr it was a red map in 2014/ this yr its a Prez map in Senate which benefits Ds

2018 they won the Senate but only won IN, ND and MO
This is just utter garbarge what you are saying here. It only favours Democrats if the National Political Environment is in their favour and I doubt it will be.

Nationalizing a Race like this like @CityofSinners wants Democrats to do is the worst thing they could do. Good Luck trying to tie Sununu to Trump when the Governor is one of the most Anti-Trump Governors in the Country.

Jeanne Shaheen beat Scott Brown in 2014 because she localized the Race. Kay Hagan kept the NC Senate Race close that year by tying Tillis to the Republican State Legislature.

I am amazed how many Atlas Democratic Wannabees have no real understanding of US Politics at all!

How do we have no understanding of politics and Rs have lost consistently have you seen a recent Election other than 2010/2014 where Rs have won the Atlas user map Predictions, no they haven't
LOL, Atlas User Prediction Maps are CRAP! Several Models are already saying that Democrats will lose the House.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #20 on: July 22, 2021, 03:05:59 PM »

Yea this is not good for Sununu, popular governor with an approval edge only at +1? Yeah Hassan has a great shot
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lfromnj
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« Reply #21 on: July 22, 2021, 05:46:10 PM »

Btw lol at KH approvals.
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Pollster
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« Reply #22 on: July 23, 2021, 09:09:21 AM »

Very peculiar to see such low figures all around for favorability/unfavorability despite the ballot tests all carrying a believable number of undecideds.

Suggests either weird question wording, or an extremely partisan electorate, or both.

The favorabilites also had a "Neutral" and "Don't know enough to say" option FWIW. These were the numbers with favorable/unfavorable/neutral/don't know enough in respective order-

Hassan - 37/40/17/6
Sununu - 48/25/22/4
Bolduc - 11/16/23/50
Ayotte - 26/35/25/15

Great catch. If "neutral" can reasonably be assumed to mean "I know who this person is" then these numbers make much more sense.

Very odd that Ayotte has a 15% unknown number despite having been a statewide official for over a decade who received half of the vote in a high-turnout, high-spending statewide election not even five years ago, especially considering New Hampshire has not seen a huge amount of population change.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: July 23, 2021, 09:11:38 AM »

In a Neutral or Dem Leaning Environment and Biden is at 52(48 D's will win NH
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #24 on: July 23, 2021, 09:17:18 AM »

Hassan honestly is slightly favored at this moment.
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