✔️
Donald Trump (R–Florida) +2 (actual or adjusted margin)
▫️
Joe Biden (D–Delaware, incumbent)
Scenario is a 2024 Republican pickup in which Donald Trump pulls a Grover Cleveland against Democratic incumbent Joe Biden (who unseated Trump in 2020).
A 2024 Trump would carry his 25 states, plus
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, for a [reallocated] 235 electoral votes. His pickups would come first from the nowadays best bellwether states—the Rust Belt trio Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin (mentioned according to population ranks). Two more states would also flip: Minnesota and [statewide] Maine.
The inclusions of Minnesota, last in the Republicans’s column for the 49-state re-election of 1972 Richard Nixon, and [statewide] Maine, last in the Republicans’s column for 1988 George Bush, are with a sense of their gradual trending for where states rank for Republicans and Democrats as best-performed. For the Democrats, Minnesota was their No. 19 best state in both 2016 and 2020. That made it the Republicans’s No. 32 in both cycles. (2016 Donald Trump carried 30 states.) [Statewide] Maine is now a challenge for the Democrats to hold. In 2016, they won the statewide because its
1st Congressional District was a margin of +14.81. Its
2nd Congressional District was a Republican pickup by +10.28. The statewide was Democratic +2.96. These two districts are pulling in diametrically opposite directions. A really good Republican year, a pickup year for the presidency, could see the
2nd overtake the
1st with delivering a Republican pickup of the state of Maine.
I am going by pattern with excluding all of Arizona, Georgia, and
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District as part of this scenario. For more information, refer to the following:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566 .
To sum up, the above map (using solid shades for 2020-to-2024 party holds; light shades for pickups) would be a Republican pickup of the presidency of the United States. 2020 Donald Trump carried 25 states (plus
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District) and with an electoral-vote score of 232 reallocated to a 2024 and 2028 total of 235 electoral votes. Pickups, for where they could rank, are as follows:
26. Wisconsin (in theory +3; cumulative 245 electoral votes)
27. Pennsylvania (+2.50; cum. 264)
28. Michigan (+2; cum. 279—Tipping-Point State)
29. Minnesota (+1; cum. 289)
30. Maine [statewide] (+0.50; cumulative 291 electoral votes)
Poll
