2021 College Football Discussion and Pick'em Thread

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

This is actually happening... A devastating blow to the entire sport. What is the point of like 8-10 teams fighting it out for the right to play Clemson in the title game? I don't get it. Unless playoff expansion goes forward to and we get 3 loss SEC teams in the playoffs.

A&M in the SEC made a little sense. Texas? Absolutely none.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Moronic. One (Kansas), maybe two (Oklahoma State) make even a lick of sense. I think it's clear the conference won't totally collapse when they have 6-7 pretty serious options with P5 type budgets, two of which were top 10 in the nation for all of last season, another two that had top 10 teams in the last 5 years.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Most likely scenario in my opinion if Texas and Oklahoma leaves is Texas A&M walks out of the SEC and goes back to the Big Twelve, and they also get Nebraska back from the Big Ten.

I wouldn't call this likely

Me neither. Their current conferences are far superior to the Big 12.

While not "likely", I wouldn't call Nebraska unlikely. If they want a prayer of competing and have any care about long-term cash flows, they would switch back. TV is such a short term investment and building a new generation of fans that know winning culture and can recruit Texas is much more critical. Passion can only withstand so much.

But corporate short term-ism will ensure they make the wrong choice for the sport and themselves.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Stay strong, Big XII! Keep the money that belongs to you. Don't let ESPN or Austin get out of paying every last buck.

In other news, Barstool Sports has dented the ESPN bowl distribution monopoly with the streaming rights to the Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl on New Year's Eve. Clearly nowhere near the scale of operations they need to think bigger like long-term conference contracts. But hopefully Fox steps up here like they did for Big East basketball.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Ouch, poor Memphis once these Big XII invites go out to Cincinnati, Houston and UCF. A solid two-sport program completely abandoned and left outside the P5 order.

SMU could be a decent second name for them in the conference but they are too up-and-down to be sure of their future.

I think the conference should just split and get better geographical alignment (along with C-USA and Sun Belt to ease travel), but the legal difficulties of dissolution and reformation while maintaining bowl tie-ins may be too much to overcome so we will probably get a very ugly AAC.

James Madison was desperate to move up for years waiting out for the American and their budgets were in line with the conference thanks to high student fees, but I don't know if that's sustainable in a post-COVID world. Still, the attention/brand brought in by successful transitions by Liberty and Coastal make you think they have to consider. Probably the top option.

Other than that, Old Dominion and Charlotte have bigger budgets than say Coastal and Appalachian State...but I think you need to capitalize in those existing football brands and see will continue to upgrade their other sports to get on par. Would they event want to? Going to be very interesting.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I told you Penn State is legit. They could (like, 30% chance) beat Ohio State.

Watching that game, I had a stronger impression that neither was legitimate, but Penn State clearly had a higher ceiling. Definitely not the best team they've had in recent memory (2016-2018 all significantly better). But then again, neither is Ohio State. 30% is fair. They'll take a loss at some point. It's more a question if they will lose twice and/or if one is Penn State.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I-L-L!

Oh, I'm sorry I guess that Northern Illinois beating a P5 team on the road, and Illinois losing to a borderline top 100 team that's never won a bowl game at home. Wonder how that 48% probability of bowl eligibility will change overnight.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

North Carolina is obviously much better than Vanderbilt, but you can make a case for anyone else in the SEC beating them. The lower half teams in the SEC tend to recruit as well as UNC or better, and put a similar number of players in the NFL draft. And I didn't say UNC would be last in the SEC, just 11th or worse if they were the SEC's 15th team.

I'm going to go ahead and say that Carolina is better than Mississippi State. This is just really bleak.

Mississippi State plays NC State next week, so we'll get a better data point to answer that question. I think NC State is approximately as good as UNC, maybe a little better or worse.

I don't know how you could come to that conclusion. Carolina is currently 18th in the Massey composite, which seems fair. NC State is 45. To put that into SEC terms, it's roughly the gap between LSU and Kentucky.

The SEC's perenially beloved FPI also loves NC State because of their performance yesterday. They may jump across the board, but they won't move one spot ahead of UNC on more commonly used metrics.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Florida State made the go-ahead field goal in OT (admittedly a weak and half-hearted attempt by the kicker clearly after the challenge whistle initiated by their coach but it squeaked over) only for the successful challenge to bring them about 10 yards closer and for the kicker to miss wildly. Notre Dame took it from there with a chip shot. Noles blew their chance. But super glad to see McKenzie Milton back out there. The true lovable face from the UCF Championship Team.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I too broke my 700 day absence today, and it was absolutely magnificent. What a comeback (that should never have been needed), what a game, what a life! This is all I need to keep existing, inject it into my veins week-after-week.

I guess we'll hold off on canning Coach for a few weeks, but he probably deserves it for the uncreative offensive strategy and the lackluster halftime speech that clearly put the team into a momentary coma.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

How were the GameDay pickers so foolish to think it is impossible for Florida State to start 0-3? What year are they living in? I thought that was an easy pick, and I have limited faith in Wake Forest this season. MSU is definitely back, and FSU definitely ain't. How hard is this? We were screaming at the television set on that one. Do these people watch the games or black out and think an old one was last week's effort?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

How were the GameDay pickers so foolish to think it is impossible for Florida State to start 0-3? What year are they living in? I thought that was an easy pick, and I have limited faith in Wake Forest this season. MSU is definitely back, and FSU definitely ain't. How hard is this? We were screaming at the television set on both of those. Do these people watch the games or black out and think an old one was last week's effort?

Maybe we can get another Michigan State Iowa Big Ten Championship game!

I've been thinking so for a bit. MSU still worries me. The whole East is narrowly above average. I'm afraid Michigan is the best of it but can you trust them?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Hard to win road games against elite teams with your punter out of action! Good effort, we'll get 'em in 2025.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Looks like Preseason #14 Miami (FL) is not going to be bowl eligible. Praise Catholic Jesus. The U might be deader than Nebraska.

*FPI still keeps them at 60% chance. But those next three games are daunting. They could win their last four given the Tech schools are coming to Miami Gardens, but I have to think they drop one. Last night was a home game too, and it didn't help them prevail against what appears to be a worse team than either of those. Massey is far less kind. Maybe D'Eriq King really will save them down the stretch.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

What a joy to see the remnants of the ultra-cocky American conference be rebuffed by Colorado State and the Air Force Academy. No truce to be called in the Border War!!

Sure, I was all about the AAC > ACC because who isn't for the little guy, but the nobodies got egos way too big for their britches real quick, especially in basketball (Wichita State lol). Think they can destroy the beautiful rivalries of the Mountain States? Give me a break. Time for the MW to poach SMU and Tulsa and kill what's left of the "P6" (or make MW the all but certain 6th).

Tulane, South Florida and East Carolina can go begging the C-USA to form a more regionalized structure with them. These scraps are below the Sun Belt and have no value outside of Tulane baseball. Maybe these two conferences together can go tell Temple to pound sand and have fun with UMass and UConn - the proudest Temple tradition of all.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I've decided to enter the Pick 'Em contest, and I will take BYU this evening. I think they are overrated, but the Aggies are quite a ways down from their peak and are really lucky to have a winning record right now.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

UC-Davis is better than three Pac-12 teams (at least) and is almost certain to go undefeated this season given how atrocious Eastern's defense has looked.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Mesmerizing day for the FCS top 10. What a great way to cap it off with a near game-winning touchdown pass from #4 Montana's freshman back-up QB coming in cold but near won't do it! #6 EWU storms their beautiful field!

#1 Sam Houston got a late touchdown to narrowly defeat their chief rival, 21-20. Shocking that it was this close.
#3 James Madison snuck past #21 New Hampshire in a sneaky road game, 23-21. With how weak Delaware and Rhode Island have looked against inferior competition, this may very well set up James Madison hosting the de facto conference title game next week.
#5 North Dakota State definitely hasn't looked like their old dynasty, but they narrowly held off the sudden power shift to #10 North Dakota a little longer with an ugly road win, 16-10.

#12 UC-Davis was given a surprising fright but ultimately prevailed. That's five great backup tv games once the FBS headliners disappointed!

#9 Jacksonville State also got embarrassed, but I think everyone knows this team should not be in the top 25 and is only here thanks to the Seminoles' brain lapse.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The opening betting line was Michigan by 1. Nebraska playing like a top 25 team quite clearly.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The opening betting line was Michigan by 1. Nebraska playing like a top 25 team quite clearly.

That's a fair point. I like making fun of Nebraska as much as the next person, but looking at their games every one of them a one score loss or a blowout win. Michigan's offense has at times (especially against Rutgers) looked very questionable and they don't feel like a top 10 team. Nebraska is a few lucky breaks (and a really bad game 1) from being undefeated. It should be a good game and actually tell us something about both teams.

I listened to the entirety of the Michigan-Rutgers game on the ride home that week with the UM broadcasters. It was the experience of a lifetime.  Rutgers is decent this year too, but man, oh man, the Michigan faithful - after an average first half with many lucky breaks were ready to double up the score to 40-6 and go home. Most bloated egos in sports.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Joe Paterno is the greatest coach in the history of the sport. That's why he has my vote for governor as long as he wants it. Franklin will never make the big time. Bet Iowa today and while they may not have deserved the W, they did enough. Very nice to see.

Helped me recover from the disasters of Texas +3.5 and Ole Miss -5.5. What a double whammy of heartbreaks.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Today was our first win in Harrisonburg since the 2009 national title winning squad, long before Madison ever came to national prominence.

Despite outgaining them, we had little business winning the game. It is clear JMU have no passing game without DiNucci (and no kicking game!) and probably are not a real top 5 squad. Seems more like an end to the run of JMU rather than catapulting us into the national conversation though we could be 7ish with the very difficult road win. The Colonial has fallen very far behind the MVFC and even now the Big Sky (at least the Montana schools, maybe not Weber or UC-Davis).

No doubt we will lose one we shouldn't, but this is a huge tiebreaker for the autobid.

Takes huge guts to go for it on 4th and 1 on your own 29 in a one point game to control your fate and run out the clock. Among the most terrifying calls in football even when the other kicker missed a mulligan. Doubt I would make such a decision, but great job converting.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I mean, it's pretty clear Penn State is better than Iowa. They lost a road game only after Iowa took out their top players.

I thought Iowa would be losing to Wisconsin and either Minnesota or Nebraska - not Purdue! But can never tell when luck is going to dry up.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Holy cow, next week's slate is hot garbage. I'm sure College GameDay will pick Pittsburgh (vs. Clemson) or UCLA (vs. Oregon) for sake of giving equal airtime to the irrelevant P5 conferences, but it would be the perfect time to go to Princeton for a battle of the undefeateds with Harvard. Heck, they'd probably sooner choose NDSU or EWU with their barely top 25 opponents. The former faces Bobby Petrino, the latter had their red field on national tv just two weeks back. Might even resort to SHSU or SDSU as they are the top two but opponents get really meh.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Tennessee should be fined $1 million and banned from having live attendance for one year. Shocked NYE hasn't called for the death penalty and/or SEC Expulsion yet.