Is a 5 point victory possible for Ron Johnson?

[Woody]

He almost got it in his first run against Feingold.. later on he defeated Feingold yet again, but this time by 3.4 points.

Does he have to overperform in WOW again to get this margin?

[SnowLabrador]

Yes, I think he wins by at least 5%.

[Utah Neolib]

I think it’s certainly possible, but not one of the likeliest scenarios

[CookieDamage]

Possible but unlikely as of right now

[BoiseBoy]

I would say a 3-4% win is more likely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No in Neutral Environment, D's won the 304 map, Johnson is DOA, we have been saying the samething all yr long, Johnson is DOA, the only polls we have is Nelson and Evers up 48/44

[Young Conservative]

I think a victory of 3-5 points is simultaneously the most likely scenario and his upper limit.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Last poll has Nelson leading 48/44 and he is under 50

[Progressive Pessimist]

If 2022 is the Republican year it looks like it will be, yes, definitely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Generic ballot is tied it's a Neutral Environment right now but that can change in 500 days it looks like D's are gonna bipass Rs by putting everything including debt ceiling in Reconciliation

If Biden agen is fully implented, D's will win, even in a Neutral Environment, D's will win WI and PA in a 304 map scenario

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Definitely

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Last poll has Nelson leading 48/44 and he is under 50

That poll was from March.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

No, it’s not possible.  In fact, if Johnson wins by 5 points or more, I pledge to leave the forum for a year.

[THG]

Yes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Last poll has Nelson leading 48/44 and he is under 50

That poll was from March.

Yes and the poll that had SUNUNU ahead was from March and Rs keep saying Sununu is ahead WI is a D state Baldwin won by 10

[Crogers]

Yeah it’s possible, but still on the high end.

Barnes is a terrible candidate btw.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah it’s possible, but still on the high end.

Barnes is a terrible candidate btw.

Lol he won a statewidee office as Krmt Gov we need to wait to see a poll

[Crogers]

Aren’t the gov and lt gov elected on the same ticket in Wisconsin? If so, he gets zero strength or credit for that victory.

[brucejoel99]

No, it’s not possible.  In fact, if Johnson wins by 5 points or more, I pledge to leave the forum for a year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope you know Rs only won WI 1x since 1988 in a Prez Election and it has voted for every D candidate since Wilson except for 1920 s Ds Kennedy and Wilson Reelection

FDR, TRUMAN, CARTER, DUKAKIS, GORE AND KERRY ITS A DEM BASED BATTLEGROUND

OH ISNT that R either it has voted too for every D Prez except Kennedy Obama won it with Biden on the Ballot in 2008/12

The Gov race is Safe R but the only Sen poll we had had Ryan tied, and along with Brown and Manchin have never lost a Sen race, road to 55 is plausible as Cook has NC as a Tossup and MO if NIXON gets in will be competetive

[Xing]

Possible, but about as likely as the seat flipping. I think a 3-point win is more likely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Possible, but about as likely as the seat flipping. I think a 3-point win is more likely.

.
You know Biden is at 50/45 Approvals Obama won a landslide with that sort of Approval in 2012 which includes WI in a Prez map, Johnson only won by 200K votes well within range for D's to take back

Johnson is DONE JUST LIKE PBOWER2A SAYS TOO, so is Sununu, he only leads by one, Rs can't brag anymore that he's up by six

[Vosem]

Sure it is. Republicans in the Wisconsin Assembly won the popular vote 54-45 in 2020, which was a pretty Democratic year nationally. I imagine Johnson can achieve half that margin in a more Republican year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sure it is. Republicans in the Wisconsin Assembly won the popular vote 54-45 in 2020, which was a pretty Democratic year nationally. I imagine Johnson can achieve half that margin in a more Republican year.

The only poll in this race had it 48/44 Nelson and Evers leading how it s more R year and Biden is at 50/45 and he achieved 51/46% and D's won WI on Election night


304 map
It's mist definitely a Neutral cycle, Rs aren't leading on GENERIC BALLOT it's tied 42%

[Minnesota Mike]

Lots of things are possible. Stupid question.