Political future of Muskegon County, MI?

[GregTheGreat657]

Muskegon County has voted Democrat in every election since 1988, however it has been competitive in 2016 and 2020. In 2020, it trended 3.5 points to the right compared to where it was in 2016 relative to the country. Muskegon County is 81% white and 14% black. It's median household income is $51k at a time when the median household income for the country was $63k. 20% of Muskegon County Residents have at least a bachelor's degree vs 32% for the country as a whole at that time. The unemployment and poverty rates are both above average.

[VPH]

Judging from demographics, it's likely headed towards the GOP.

[TML]

It should be noted that this county might shrink in size due to its outer regions (aside from the city of Muskegon proper) wanting to either secede to form a new county or join other neighboring counties. May I ask the OP if you want us to take that possibility into account?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It should be noted that this county might shrink in size due to its outer regions (aside from the city of Muskegon proper) wanting to either secede to form a new county or join other neighboring counties. May I ask the OP if you want us to take that possibility into account?

Is a county being broken up really likely enough to deserve a space in a poll?

[jimrtex]

Muskegon County has voted Democrat in every election since 1988, however it has been competitive in 2016 and 2020. In 2020, it trended 3.5 points to the right compared to where it was in 2016 relative to the country. Muskegon County is 81% white and 14% black. It's median household income is $51k at a time when the median household income for the country was $63k. 20% of Muskegon County Residents have at least a bachelor's degree vs 32% for the country as a whole at that time. The unemployment and poverty rates are both above average.

It will likely become more of a satellite of Grand Rapids. A port that is closed several months a year can't prosper. There will be a trains and trucks that are more reliable.

[here2view]

I actually visited there last month, I imagine it will continue to trend toward the GOP.

[Schiff for Senate]

Depends on the 2024 GOP nominee, but I'd actually say it stays the same or trends blue. Trump probably hasn't gained any supporters since 2020 and some Obama 2012 / Trump 2020 voters may go back to being blue if Trump doesn't run, while others may anyway after January 6. I think Biden's 0.6% margin was the low point for Democrats in the county, at least for now. Also depends on the national political climate in 2024 and Biden's popularity.

[Hope For A New Era]

I don't see much change happening. I just don't see what's left to trend, either direction.

I mean, Mahoning flipped in 2020. If Muskegon was going to go R, it would have.


Titanium Tilt D county?

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't see much change happening. I just don't see what's left to trend, either direction.

I mean, Mahoning flipped in 2020. If Muskegon was going to go R, it would have.


Titanium Tilt D county?

Mahoning flipped because Dem voters have been leaving the county. If Muskegon flips it will be because of the GOP peeling off Dem voters. 

[Tiger08]

John James won it last year, so the GOP definitely has a chance down the road

[Tintrlvr]

It should be noted that this county might shrink in size due to its outer regions (aside from the city of Muskegon proper) wanting to either secede to form a new county or join other neighboring counties. May I ask the OP if you want us to take that possibility into account?

Is a county being broken up really likely enough to deserve a space in a poll?

Seems like not, but it was seriously proposed:
https://www.mlive.com/news/muskegon/2021/06/reactions-to-secessionist-talk-in-muskegon-county-range-from-laughingstock-to-brilliant.html

[Hope For A New Era]

John James won it last year, so the GOP definitely has a chance down the road

That actually suggests that the county has reached max-R at some point between 2016 and 2020, and is moving (very slowly and very slightly) left.

This assumes, of course, that current coalition changes do not reverse, or reverse very evenly and simultaneously.

See Pennsylvania for an example of this at the state level (Joe Torsella winning while Clinton loses and then losing while Biden wins).