Next Nova Scotia general election

[DC Al Fine]

And there are already signs up at the big intersection by my house

[DC Al Fine]

I'll try to do some more detailed writeups in the coming weeks, but for now I'll just note that the Maritimes are extremely candidate focused. Once you get outside Halifax, election analysis is halfway between predicting a city council race and a partisan election. E.g. Hants West and Colchester North both had 20%+ trends after their local MLA's crossed the floor.

[DC Al Fine]

This election will be the first fought under a new map. During the last redistribution, Darrell Dexter's NDP government legislated away the old underpopulated minority districts designed to elect minority candidates. This was eventually thrown out by the courts forcing a redraw. Preston (black seat), Clare and Argyle (Acadian seats in the southwest end of the province) and Richmond (Acadian seat in Cape Breton) were added to the legislature. Richmond was created by rejigging Cape Breton seats, and an additional seat was added to Halifax to account for population growth, bringing the legislature from 51 to 55.

I think the electoral boundary commission did a poor job. Ignoring the minority seat issue*, the commission made a point of making sure that "rural communities are adequately represented", but did it in a haphazard fashion, resulting in severely underpopulated rural seats next to overpopulated rural seats. Even worse, they did the same thing in Halifax! Cole Harbour and Cole Harbour-Dartmouth cover virtually identical suburban communities, but one seat has nearly twice the population of the other! Ridiculous.

Anyways here are some maps:



Urban Halifax and Dartmouth stayed largely the same with only modest changes. The big changes were in the suburbs. Major changes include:

The rapidly growing suburb, Bedford was divided into Bedford Basin (the former town of Bedford, a mix of very old development and 60's-90's suburb), and Bedford South (new developments from the 2000's onward).

"The Pubs" a very poor NDP voting area was moved from Fairview-Clayton Park to Halifax Armdale, making the former somewhat harder for the NDP to pickup and the latter easier.

The outer suburbs of Dartmouth were reconfigured to make more sense. The upper middle class suburbs of Russell Lake and Portland Valley were tacked onto the wealthier parts of Cole Harbour (a veyr mixed suburb) to form Cole Harbour-Dartmouth. The old Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage seat was split up (this seat was always pretty awkward as they are totally different communities). Cole Harbour is effectively the working class parts of Cole Harbour, and Eastern Passage is a vaguely Trumpy working class exurb (major employers were/are a recently closed oil refinery and a military base)

Other changes of note are Sackville-Beaverbank (now named Sackville-Uniacke) being extended out to Mount Uniacke in Hants County, and Timberlea-Prospect losing rural bits to Chester-St. Margaret's to account for rural depopulation.



Industrial Cape Breton was rejigged somewhat. Cape Breton Centre lost the town of Dominion to Glace Bay but added Whitney Pier. Both places vote NDP, so the net result is the Sydney becoming harder for the NDP and Glace Bay much more NDP friendly.



As I said earlier, Acadian seat Richmond was recreated by adjusting rural Cape Breton. Inverness regains the Tory voting former mill town Port Hawkesbury, and Cape Breton East (formerly Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg) regains the Cape Breton county parts of Richmond. Richmond was narrowly won by the Tories last time under its previous iteration as Cape Breton-Louisbourg. Richmond is now notionally Liberal while Inverness and Cape Breton East are now even more heavily Tory.

Very few changes in the northern mainland so I won't bother posting a map. Guysborough-Tracadie used to extend into the rural part of Halifax County but has received a dispensation to be underpopulated and now stops at the county line.



The South Shore saw the largest changes from last time. The Acadian seats of Argyle and Clare were recreated. Argyle is safe Tory (and probably the most socon part of the province. Christian Heritage won several precincts here federally in 2006). Queens-Shelburne was also split into Queens and Shelburne to account for the Anglo portions shaved out of the Argyle seat. Queens usually votes Tory and Shelburne Liberal, so the change turns one competitive seat into two safe ones.



The main change to the Annapolis Valley is that Digby loses the Clare portion of the county and has to pick up parts of Annapolis County to make populations work. This forms Digby-Annapolis, a fairly awkward seat (Digby is almost all fishing and Annapolis is almost all farming). The remainder of the Annapolis Valley is minor border shifts (e.g. Kings County retains three seats but is slightly modified)

*The Acadian seats are fine in my book and elect Francophone candidates like they were designed to. The black community in Nova Scotia is too spread out to make a FPTP minority seat work in my opinion. Preston was always a majority white seat and hasn't elected a black MLA in over 20 years.

[DC Al Fine]

I missed one other flip due to boundary shifts. Adding the Woodbine mobile park to Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank (from Tory-held Sackville-Beaver Ban) has made the riding a notional Tory seat (went Liberal in reality).

On another topic, would it be safe to assume the following ridings are potential NDP targets?

Halifax Armdale (used to be Alexa's old riding)
Sackville-Cobequid  (traditional NDP seat, lost in a recent by-election)
Glace Bay-Dominion (former CBRM mayor running)
Sydney-Membertou (fairly close last time, though boundary shifts make it harder to pick up)

Those are all good first tier picks.

I'd throw Chester-St. Margaret's, Cole Harbour, Eastern Passage, and Fairview-Clayton Park in as second tier targets. Nothing special in terms of candidates, but the NDP has always been competitive or even won in those areas, even before they got into government, and they came reasonably close last time in those seats.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP platform is out

Major items include:

• $15/hr minimum wage
• Requiring employers to offer two weeks paid sick leave
• Rent control
• Public option car insurance
• YUGE increases in mental health and long term care funding

Costing to follow later, but judging how there's only a smattering of tax hikes like a luxury tax on yachts and fancy cars, they're planning on running larger deficits for the forseeable future. This isn't the Darrell Dexter's NDP anymore (but we already knew that haha).

[DC Al Fine]

NDP platform is out

Major items include:

• $15/hr minimum wage
• Requiring employers to offer two weeks paid sick leave
• Rent control
• Public option car insurance
• YUGE increases in mental health and long term care funding

Costing to follow later, but judging how there's only a smattering of tax hikes like a luxury tax on yachts and fancy cars, they're planning on running larger deficits for the forseeable future. This isn't the Darrell Dexter's NDP anymore (but we already knew that haha).

Someone mentioned on Twitter that they want to phase out coal by 2030 (confirmed after reading their platform). Will this not go over very well in Cape Breton? I'm not sure how similar they are to West Virginians in their attachment to coal.

Not sure. Most of the mines are long closed, but there is one left near Glace Bay, and Cape Bretoners are pretty sentimental about the mines and the steel mill. Could be nothing, could be a huge deal.

Will the Tory platform be relatively left-leaning this time?

Completely anecdotally but I knew someone who supported McNeil's Liberals last time as he thought that Baillie and the PCs were actually closer to the Trudeau government (which he hated). He didn't like the NDP under Burrill at the time either. Not sure how that stacks up though, especially given that the NS Liberals are, unlike say the Ontario Liberals, actually affiliated with the national party.

The Liberals were probably slightly to the right of the Tories last time. I'd expect Rankin to shift left, but the Tories will likely still hug the centre and try to find an issue to outflank the other parties on. Last time it was rural healthcare.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP platform is out

Major items include:

• $15/hr minimum wage
• Requiring employers to offer two weeks paid sick leave
• Rent control
• Public option car insurance
• YUGE increases in mental health and long term care funding

Costing to follow later, but judging how there's only a smattering of tax hikes like a luxury tax on yachts and fancy cars, they're planning on running larger deficits for the forseeable future. This isn't the Darrell Dexter's NDP anymore (but we already knew that haha).

Yeah that is definitely an issue.  Ironically Rankin I believe promised a balanced budget in 4 years and I believe NS has one of the lowest deficits of provinces although large debt and huge issue with aging population.  As for tax hikes, surprise didn't include wealth tax or hike on top earners.  At same time quite possible both might actually be revenue losers.  Since people with money can work remotely, I think a wealth tax or hike on top earners has to be done federally as at least harder to move abroad and you can change the tax base whereas provincially most studies I have seen show they tend to not work.  You see same in US too.  Andrew Cuomo and Gavin Newsom both favour higher taxes on rich but both are opposed to state tax hikes on rich and argue any such hike needs to be federal as rich can just re-locate to lower taxed states like Texas or Florida. 

Really I think any party that wants to run on more programs should consider HST hikes provincially and GST federally.  Yes I know political suicide, but in Europe they fund their bigger welfare states through higher VATs, not higher income or corporate.  At same time to avoid hurting poor maybe should move to two tier VATs.  In most European countries you have reduced VAT for essentials which is usually only 5-7% while VAT for regular goods tend to be 20-25%.  Of OECD countries, I believe United States, Japan, South Korea, and Australia are only ones with lower VATs than Canada and first one has very weak welfare state while latter two are so-so.  Much more generous than US, but not as generous as most of Europe.

I don't know that most people voting NDP care about how their spending promises would be paid for.  First, I don't think that most voting NDP expect the NDP to win, and second, even if they did think they'd win, I don't think most NDP voters care about balancing the budget or the issue of deficits.  I think this is more an issue for the media.

The point where it does become an issue is when the likes of Gary Burrill grandstands and complains about the inadequate spending on a whole number of provincial programs when he knows that he doesn't have to worry about the fiscal situation but he knows that the Premier does actually have such constraints.  I believe Stephen McNeil genuinely hated Gary Burrill because of this.

This.

Also the last NDP government raised HST and it played a part in their eventual defeat. I'm sure Burrill is aware of that.

As for wealth and income tax hikes. We're already quite highly taxed both at the top and middle class. You're in a 50%+ marginal bracket at $150,000 in Nova Scotia, and you're in a higher provincial tax bracket at $30,000 in Nova Scotia than you are at $220,000 in Ontario! Nova Scotia is a pretty poor place once you get outside Halifax. There's only so much blood you can squeeze from that stone.

[DC Al Fine]

No opinion polls yet, but there were two done in early June. Brsckets show changes from last election

Narrative Research (formerly Corporate Research Associates)
Liberal: 52% (+13)
PC: 24% (-12)
NDP: 19% (-2)

Angus Reid
Liberal: 41% (+1)
PC: 33% (-3)
NDP: 20% (-1)

Narrative frankly has a pretty poor track record lately in Nova Scotia, underpolling the Tories by 5% and 6% in the last two elections. Angus Reid has no track record to speak of in provincial elections here. Either way, the Liberals are in majority territory. It's just a question of a modest one or a landslide.

[DC Al Fine]

The Liberals were in Cumberland North today promising to remove tolls from the Cobequid Pass. This went over poorly as the Liberals made the exact same promise in the last election and didn't do it.

[DC Al Fine]

Looks like Preston is finally living up to it's designed purpose once again, for the first time in 20 years (as was pointed out earlier) the MLA will be from the Black Community; the Liberals, PCs and NDP are all running Black candidates.

https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/featured/for-the-first-time-in-nova-scotia-election-history-all-the-candidates-in-one-riding-are-black/?fbclid=IwAR1EeGJuOQQ9mZr1XAstmBJDmq2HJRnrR65AxyQRk01sx7cvGH9FzP8EzVI

I think drawing a Preston district is ridiculous, not only is the district severely underpopulated but it's also only 40% black with a history of returning white reps. It's clear that Nova Scotia doesn't have the same racial polarization present in america that required drawing special majority minority district for the minority to have any representation.

It actually sort of does in a sense, which makes the Preston district even worse.

If you know the geography of the area and go through old precinct results, you'll see that the white majority of the district frequently elected white Liberal Keith Colwell (and white Tory David Hendsbee before him) over the preferred candidate (NDP or Tory, our racial politics are weird) of the black villages of Preston and Cherry Brook.

The district was a de facto pocket borough for white MLA's for the past twenty years. The riding failed to do what it was ostensibly designed to do.

[DC Al Fine]

Former Dartmouth South candidate says Liberals dropped her over 'boudoir' photos

Quite the story here.

The Liberal candidate in Dartmouth South resigned as soon as the writ was dropped, citing mental health concerns. Now she is saying the Liberals dropped her because she has an OnlyFans account and told her to lie about it.

[DC Al Fine]

Former Dartmouth South candidate says Liberals dropped her over 'boudoir' photos

Quite the story here.

The Liberal candidate in Dartmouth South resigned as soon as the writ was dropped, citing mental health concerns. Now she is saying the Liberals dropped her because she has an OnlyFans account and told her to lie about it.

Amusing that she would run for the Liberals in the first place.

Didn't the Liberals try to get Lenore Zann in trouble for some topless pictures from he work as an actress? And she re-payed them by getting elected for them as an MP.

Oh yeah I remember that. That whole string of events was weird. She later tried to use the NDP government's cyber bullying law to arrest a teenager arrested who tweeted the pictures.

[DC Al Fine]

Interestingly, the NDP is the first party to have nominated a full slate of candidates.

Good sign for them. They usually have to scramble to find candidates in their dead zone (e.g. Yarmouth)

Liberals are missing two: Cumberland South, and Dartmouth South

Tories are only missing Cumberland North, where Smith-McCrossin got expelled from the party. That's normally a very Tory seat, which might say something about the situation on the ground there.

Greens have about 30/55 candidates. That's independent of the federal party's issues. The provincial Greens are pretty poorly organized, and are doing the campaign without a permanent leader.

[DC Al Fine]

Interestingly, the NDP is the first party to have nominated a full slate of candidates.

Good sign for them. They usually have to scramble to find candidates in their dead zone (e.g. Yarmouth)

Does that have to do with Dexter and the ferry?

Precisely. Once that ferry subsidy was cut, the NDP went from polling the 20's (and briefly holding the seat in the 90's) to being lucky to get 5%.

[DC Al Fine]

Actually if you want to talk about terrible trends, this is a great example. The NDP in Yarmouth went from 45% to 2.5% in the span of fifteen years

[DC Al Fine]

Interestingly, the NDP is the first party to have nominated a full slate of candidates.

Good sign for them. They usually have to scramble to find candidates in their dead zone (e.g. Yarmouth)

Does that have to do with Dexter and the ferry?

Precisely. Once that ferry subsidy was cut, the NDP went from polling the 20's (and briefly holding the seat in the 90's) to being lucky to get 5%.

Why did they cut it ?

It was expensive, the ferry was losing money, and the NDP ran on an anti-corporate welfare campaign. However it furthered the perception that the NDP is a Halifax party, especially in light of their support for the Halifax Shipyard at the same time.

[DC Al Fine]

Debate will be July 28, 6:00-7:30 Atlantic time.

[DC Al Fine]

Debate will be July 28, 6:00-7:30 Atlantic time.

Which parties are represented and by whom ?

Pretty standard. Liberal, Tory, NDP all represented by their leaders. The other parties have no seats and won't come close to running a full slate of candidates, so there's none of the drama around debates that you sometimes see at the federal level.

[DC Al Fine]

338Canada has a projection model for the election and it's just awful.

There's no attempt to deal with obvious star candidates like Bill Casey and John Morgan, and the model doesn't even include incumbent independent MLA's running for re-election.

Oh and to top it all off, the map is labeled "New Brunswick Projection"

When do I get my "Maritime Alienation" thinkpieces?

[DC Al Fine]

338Canada has a projection model for the election and it's just awful.

There's no attempt to deal with obvious star candidates like Bill Casey and John Morgan, and the model doesn't even include incumbent independent MLA's running for re-election.

Oh and to top it all off, the map is labeled "New Brunswick Projection"

When do I get my "Maritime Alienation" thinkpieces?

Were they one of the pundits that joined in with the media in predicting Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows would be close in the B.C election because it was close in 2017?

Not sure. I didn't really follow BC's election

[DC Al Fine]

Link to the stream for tonight's debate if anyone's interested. Starts at 6pm Atlantic time.

[DC Al Fine]

I don't know if anybody cares, but does anybody know who former Premier Darrell Dexter is supporting?

Darrell Dexter has been very quiet since leaving office, doubly so once he became a lobbyist. I honestly can't recall hearing a political thing from him since he lost in 2013.

[DC Al Fine]

In keeping with recent tradition, the Liberals released their costed platform, and they committed to spending slightly less than the Tories. The NDP haven't costed their platform yet, but just eyevalling it, they are committed to spending far more than either the Liberals or Tories.

[DC Al Fine]

Think I've made my decision.

I voted Liberal last time on the grounds that the Liberals were to the right of the Tories, and I really liked Stephen McNeil. I can't stand either Tim Houston or Rankin (especially Rankin), but Rankin's platform is slightly more fiscally conservative, and was oriented more towards the Halifax suburbs *.

I'm casting a personal vote for my Tory MLA, who I had a great experience with on a constituent issue, and am more or less indifferent to the overall result.

*The Tories under Jamie Baillie and Tim Houston have outflanked the Liberals and NDP on rural healthcare. This is a great example of Red Toryism that isn't the cliche fiscon-solib that pundits love but only 3% of the population supports.

[DC Al Fine]

The thing to remember about the Maritimes is that we still practice a very old school style of politics that's more about getting pork and patronage for the interests a party represents than ideology.

We still have political fights but they tend to be about whose highway gets repaved, or which region's healthcare is prioritized than the sort of things you'd see in Ontario or B.C.

E.g. The last Tory government put in price floors for gasoline, which is bizarre if you think of it from an ideological point of view, but it makes perfect sense if you view it through the lense of a party representing its backers' interests (in this case small business owners and rural communities not wanting to lose their gas stations)