Next Nova Scotia general election

[Benjamin Frank]

Election has not been called yet but there is speculation it will happen this summer before federal.  If not, by law must be by next May at latest.  I would think with the strong recovery and most getting vaccinated, it would be interest of Liberals to go sooner rather than later.  And also with lots of talk on federal elections that probably helps too as federal Tories very unpopular in Nova Scotia but provincial PCs are much more moderate and if federal in rear view mirror could do better.  While not a lot of polls my thoughts are as follows:

Liberals: Definitely the favourites, but have been in power for 8 years and are vulnerable on some fronts but still probably win, possibly a landslide if things go well.

PCs: More likely to lose than gain seats, but their leader is fairly competent and I've found in Atlantic Canada PCs almost always outperform pre-election polls.  Perhaps confusion with federal Tories who are a lot less popular there hurts them.

NDP: I think 2017 is when they had to come in second to establish themselves as main alternative to Liberals.  Fact they did not means they might have missed their window of opportunity to come back.

Gary Burrill has reduced the Nova Scotia NDP to being very similar to the New Foundland and Labrador NDP, though obviously with more potential winnable ridings: central Halifax and central Dartmouth (now part of Halifax) (similar to the NDP in central St John's) and the industrial parts of the more isolated region of the province - Cape Breton (similar to Labrador City), of course both industrial Cape Breton and industrial Labrador are also heavily unionized.

Of course, the central parts of the big cities and the more isolated regions of a province with some exceptions are the bread and butter for the NDP all across Canada.

[Benjamin Frank]

I missed one other flip due to boundary shifts. Adding the Woodbine mobile park to Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank (from Tory-held Sackville-Beaver Ban) has made the riding a notional Tory seat (went Liberal in reality).

On another topic, would it be safe to assume the following ridings are potential NDP targets?

Halifax Armdale (used to be Alexa's old riding)
Sackville-Cobequid  (traditional NDP seat, lost in a recent by-election)
Glace Bay-Dominion (former CBRM mayor running)
Sydney-Membertou (fairly close last time, though boundary shifts make it harder to pick up)

Maybe the riding boundaries have shifted, but Alexa McDonough's riding was Halifax-Chebucto.

[Benjamin Frank]

I missed one other flip due to boundary shifts. Adding the Woodbine mobile park to Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank (from Tory-held Sackville-Beaver Ban) has made the riding a notional Tory seat (went Liberal in reality).

On another topic, would it be safe to assume the following ridings are potential NDP targets?

Halifax Armdale (used to be Alexa's old riding)
Sackville-Cobequid  (traditional NDP seat, lost in a recent by-election)
Glace Bay-Dominion (former CBRM mayor running)
Sydney-Membertou (fairly close last time, though boundary shifts make it harder to pick up)

Maybe the riding boundaries have shifted, but Alexa McDonough's riding was Halifax-Chebucto.

She represented Chebucto originally (made of the northern parts of both current Chebucto and Armdale), but after 1993 redistribution, she represented Fairview (made of most of current Armdale and the Fairview part of current Fairview-Clayton Park).

Thanks for the information!

[Benjamin Frank]

NDP platform is out

Major items include:

• $15/hr minimum wage
• Requiring employers to offer two weeks paid sick leave
• Rent control
• Public option car insurance
• YUGE increases in mental health and long term care funding

Costing to follow later, but judging how there's only a smattering of tax hikes like a luxury tax on yachts and fancy cars, they're planning on running larger deficits for the forseeable future. This isn't the Darrell Dexter's NDP anymore (but we already knew that haha).

Yeah that is definitely an issue.  Ironically Rankin I believe promised a balanced budget in 4 years and I believe NS has one of the lowest deficits of provinces although large debt and huge issue with aging population.  As for tax hikes, surprise didn't include wealth tax or hike on top earners.  At same time quite possible both might actually be revenue losers.  Since people with money can work remotely, I think a wealth tax or hike on top earners has to be done federally as at least harder to move abroad and you can change the tax base whereas provincially most studies I have seen show they tend to not work.  You see same in US too.  Andrew Cuomo and Gavin Newsom both favour higher taxes on rich but both are opposed to state tax hikes on rich and argue any such hike needs to be federal as rich can just re-locate to lower taxed states like Texas or Florida. 

Really I think any party that wants to run on more programs should consider HST hikes provincially and GST federally.  Yes I know political suicide, but in Europe they fund their bigger welfare states through higher VATs, not higher income or corporate.  At same time to avoid hurting poor maybe should move to two tier VATs.  In most European countries you have reduced VAT for essentials which is usually only 5-7% while VAT for regular goods tend to be 20-25%.  Of OECD countries, I believe United States, Japan, South Korea, and Australia are only ones with lower VATs than Canada and first one has very weak welfare state while latter two are so-so.  Much more generous than US, but not as generous as most of Europe.

I don't know that most people voting NDP care about how their spending promises would be paid for.  First, I don't think that most voting NDP expect the NDP to win, and second, even if they did think they'd win, I don't think most NDP voters care about balancing the budget or the issue of deficits.  I think this is more an issue for the media.

The point where it does become an issue is when the likes of Gary Burrill grandstands and complains about the inadequate spending on a whole number of provincial programs when he knows that he doesn't have to worry about the fiscal situation but he knows that the Premier does actually have such constraints.  I believe Stephen McNeil genuinely hated Gary Burrill because of this.

[Benjamin Frank]

Former Dartmouth South candidate says Liberals dropped her over 'boudoir' photos

Quite the story here.

The Liberal candidate in Dartmouth South resigned as soon as the writ was dropped, citing mental health concerns. Now she is saying the Liberals dropped her because she has an OnlyFans account and told her to lie about it.

This is the exact sort of thing that Phil Ochs wrote the song "Love Me, I'm a liberal" about.  In the intro to the song in performance Ochs said "Liberals, 10 degrees to the left of center in good times, 10 degrees to the right of center if it effects them personally."

I love the last couple verses:
Sure once I was young and impulsive
I wore every conceivable pin
Even went to the socialist meetings
Learned all the old union hymns

Ah, but I've grown older and wiser
And that's why I'm turning you in
So love me, love me
Love me, I'm a liberal

And, yes, I do recognize that I'm included in the people he's singing about.

[Benjamin Frank]

Interestingly, the NDP is the first party to have nominated a full slate of candidates.

[Benjamin Frank]

Debate will be July 28, 6:00-7:30 Atlantic time.

Which parties are represented and by whom ?

Pretty standard. Liberal, Tory, NDP all represented by their leaders. The other parties have no seats and won't come close to running a full slate of candidates, so there's none of the drama around debates that you sometimes see at the federal level.

The Green party wasn't able to run a full slate ?

So far, 22 Greens filled paperwork, even through their website lists 40 candidates (they have until 5PM tomorrow to fill). That's still short of 55.

The only other registered party is the Atlantica Party, their only filled and announced candidate is their leader.

Surprisingly, Liberals are still missing 2 candidates and PC 1.

According to the Wiki Nova Scotia Election site, the Greens have 43 candidates, including 42 candidates in 47 ridings not including Cape Breton.

[Benjamin Frank]

338Canada has a projection model for the election and it's just awful.

There's no attempt to deal with obvious star candidates like Bill Casey and John Morgan, and the model doesn't even include incumbent independent MLA's running for re-election.

Oh and to top it all off, the map is labeled "New Brunswick Projection"

When do I get my "Maritime Alienation" thinkpieces?

Were they one of the pundits that joined in with the media in predicting Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows would be close in the B.C election because it was close in 2017?

[Benjamin Frank]

I don't know if anybody cares, but does anybody know who former Premier Darrell Dexter is supporting?

[Benjamin Frank]

New poll! same as the old poll.

Leger, published August 2nd.

Liberal:42%
P.C: 32%
NDP:20%
Green: 5%

https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Nova-Scotia-Election-August-4th-2021.pdf

[Benjamin Frank]

Literally what are the differences between the Libs and the PC? I'm always surprised at how so many parts of Canada can get by with no real conservative parties.

But, also no real liberal party.  I think they're both pretty much '3rd way centrism.'  Of course, that's not necessarily a bad thing, Nova Scotia is doing pretty well for the most part, even if it's mostly concentrated in the Halifax Metro Area.

[Benjamin Frank]

Think I've made my decision.

I voted Liberal last time on the grounds that the Liberals were to the right of the Tories, and I really liked Stephen McNeil. I can't stand either Tim Houston or Rankin (especially Rankin), but Rankin's platform is slightly more fiscally conservative, and was oriented more towards the Halifax suburbs *.

I'm casting a personal vote for my Tory MLA, who I had a great experience with on a constituent issue, and am more or less indifferent to the overall result.

*The Tories under Jamie Baillie and Tim Houston have outflanked the Liberals and NDP on rural healthcare. This is a great example of Red Toryism that isn't the cliche fiscon-solib that pundits love but only 3% of the population supports.

Do the parties have any policy differences on immigration ? I know that Atlantic Canda is pretty active in it's use of the provincal nomination system but is the issue political ?

I believe all the parties are strongly in favor of more immigration.

[Benjamin Frank]

My semi prediction.  I think there are 23 competitive ridings including 4 3 way races, and one P.C-NDP competitive riding (Sackville-Cobequid.)  I can't remember all 4 I think could be three way races.

So, the safe ridings add up to 32 (55-23) and 22 of them involve the Liberals.

Liberal: 17-39
P.C: 12-30
NDP: 3-13

[Benjamin Frank]

What do I have to do, post a riding by riding prediction to get people interested in this election again?

[Benjamin Frank]

What do I have to do, post a riding by riding prediction to get people interested in this election again?

I dunno. The local media are openly calling the election "sleepy" and "boring"

Not the most exciting campaign.

Hrm.  I've heard otherwise, that the Liberal/Iain Rankin gaffes have enlivened the campaign.

[Benjamin Frank]

What do I have to do, post a riding by riding prediction to get people interested in this election again?

I dunno. The local media are openly calling the election "sleepy" and "boring"

Not the most exciting campaign.

Hrm.  I've heard otherwise, that the Liberal/Iain Rankin gaffes have enlivened the campaign.

Oh, I might be right! This might be considered news:

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1426950762140246023

[Benjamin Frank]

Its going to be a tight race and minority looks more likely than majority but either PCs or Liberals could win a majority.  Since PCs have momentum and usually they tend to outperform polls, I am going to predict a PC minority.  Possible Liberals-NDP gang up to keep them out, but that would backfire spectacularly.  Really little ideological difference between two so its not like provinces further West where this might happen.  More comparable to PEI where Liberals and Greens could have united (not now but on election night) to keep PCs, but they didn't and NS PCs are very much like PEI PCs in ideological orientation.

I don't know if this makes much difference to Gary Burrill, but two (and maybe more, I don't know) Darrell Dexter NDP cabinet ministers have endorsed the P.C: I believe the first was Charlie Parker who lost a P.C nomination and recently Denise Peterson-Rafuse. 

Gary Burrill strikes me as being such a sanctimonious purist that I don't know if he could do a deal with either the Liberals or the P.Cs, but then, the same thing was said about Senator Bernie Sanders and he seems determined now to be more pragmatic now that he actually has a chance to get things done.  So, all in all I'd suspect that the pressure from the NDP would be on Gary Burrill to do a deal with the P.Cs.

[Benjamin Frank]

Forum out early and largely same as Mainstreet http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/3081/tories-and-liberals-neck-and-neck-in-upcoming-nova-scotia-provincial-election/ .  Its going to be close but if either PCs or Liberals do a bit better than expected a narrow majority possible, although minority looks more likely than majority.

These polls are basically the same as the 2017 election result.

[Benjamin Frank]

My prediction
Liberal: 28
P.C: 21
NDP: 6

[Benjamin Frank]

Final results just came in for Halifax-Citadel-Sable Island and the NDP did manage to secure one gain as Lisa Lachance defeated Labi Kousoulis by 441 votes.  Both of Iain Rankin's leadership rivals went down to defeat.

[Benjamin Frank]

Definitely regional splits although, of course, first past the post, highlights regional divisions more than really exist:

Mainland Nova Scotia
P.C: 20
Liberal: 4
Independent: 1

Halifax Regional Municipality
Liberal: 11
P.C 6
NDP: 5

Cape Breton
P.C: 5
Liberal:2
NDP: 1

The Liberals gained support in Cape Breton over 2017 but did not end up with a net gain in seats.

[Benjamin Frank]

Not that I have an ear to the ground or anything, but although Iain Rankin says he plans to stay on as Liberal leader, these are the MLAs I predict would be likeliest to run for leader (or to be asked to run for leader.)

1.Zach Churchill
2.Kelly Regan
3.Lorelei Nicoll
4.Patricia Arab
5.Angela Simmonds
6.Derek Momborurquette
7.Fred Tilley?

[Benjamin Frank]

To illustrate the importance of the individual candidate in Nova Scotia races, of the fourteen Liberal seats to be lost only four had incumbents running again (Antigonish, Eastern Shore, Guysborough, Halifax Citadel & Lunenburg).

That's five. 

[Benjamin Frank]

Of course, this comparison is based on the 2017 redistributed votes and not actual local campaigns, but it's the best we can do.

P.C share of vote, was up in 36 ridings and down in 19.  Most notably the P.Cs dropped in Cape Breton and somewhat oddly two of the 3 Pictou ridings.

Liberal share of the vote was up in 16 ridings and down in 39.  Most notable increase was in Cape Breton but it didn't translate to a net gain in seats on the island.

NDP share of the vote was up in 25 ridings and down in 30.  An increase in much of Halifax and a decrease in most of Mainland Nova Scotia.  

As I wrote previously, under Gary Burrill, the NDP is basically an inner city Halifax/Dartmouth and industrial Cape Breton Party, not all that dissimilar to the NDP in Newfoundland and Labrador but with more support. Also not all that dissimilar to the NDP in Saskatchewan if you replace industrial Cape Breton with isolated Northern Saskatchewan.

[Benjamin Frank]

A record 4 Black MLAs were elected - two Liberals, two NDP.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/record-number-black-mlas-elected-nova-scotia-legislature-1.6144448

Three Liberal and one New Democrat.

Liberal: Angela Simmonds, Tony Ince, and Ali Duale

New Democratic: Suzy Hansen