Next Nova Scotia general election

[beesley]

The NDP are in that position of polling as well as they did last time, but seeming very unlikely to do as well.

I'd be interested to see the result in Glace Bay with John Morgan running - as we know candidates make a difference here.

[beesley]

Will the Tory platform be relatively left-leaning this time?

Completely anecdotally but I knew someone who supported McNeil's Liberals last time as he thought that Baillie and the PCs were actually closer to the Trudeau government (which he hated). He didn't like the NDP under Burrill at the time either. Not sure how that stacks up though, especially given that the NS Liberals are, unlike say the Ontario Liberals, actually affiliated with the national party.

[beesley]

Wouldn't be surprised on these numbers of the Tories had only 1-2 seats west of Truro.

[beesley]

Debate will be July 28, 6:00-7:30 Atlantic time.

Which parties are represented and by whom ?

Pretty standard. Liberal, Tory, NDP all represented by their leaders. The other parties have no seats and won't come close to running a full slate of candidates, so there's none of the drama around debates that you sometimes see at the federal level.

The Green party wasn't able to run a full slate ?

So far, 22 Greens filled paperwork, even through their website lists 40 candidates (they have until 5PM tomorrow to fill). That's still short of 55.

The only other registered party is the Atlantica Party, their only filled and announced candidate is their leader.

Surprisingly, Liberals are still missing 2 candidates and PC 1.

What ridings are the Liberals and PCs missing? Did the Liberals not manage to replace the woman from Dartmouth?

Liberals: Cumberland South and Dartmouth South (the riding you mentioned).
PCs: Cumberland North (the Independent Elizabeth Smith-McCrossin's riding)

The Greens candidates are very uneven. Virtually a full slate in Halifax itself and the South Shore and Annapolis Valley areas, but only one candidate on Cape Breton Island.

[beesley]

338Canada has a projection model for the election and it's just awful.

There's no attempt to deal with obvious star candidates like Bill Casey and John Morgan, and the model doesn't even include incumbent independent MLA's running for re-election.

Oh and to top it all off, the map is labeled "New Brunswick Projection"

When do I get my "Maritime Alienation" thinkpieces?

Were they one of the pundits that joined in with the media in predicting Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows would be close in the B.C election because it was close in 2017?

I seem to recall their final BC projection was pretty accurate, though given the scale of the win there I doubt they got it right. I think they predicted Fraser-Nicola as a likely NDP gain like most people, ignoring the candidate dynamics like they are here.

To be honest if Bill Casey is the candidate in this part of Nova Scotia he wins. He's Bill Casey for crying out loud.

[beesley]

No need to fear, the Liberals have a full slate now with Rollie Lawless running in Cumberland South, and Les Mackay running in Dartmouth South.

[beesley]

Here is a vote compass from CBC.

Based on this I got NDP 1st on 62%, PCs 2nd on 56%, Liberals 3rd on 55%.

The final screen notes that early vote turnout is very high - maybe reduced election day turnout will cancel that out, but it looks as if turnout will be at least somewhat higher.

[beesley]

I wonder if there is going to be an Andrew Younger of this election - someone who goes against the provincial swing to win on personal popularity alone (in his case fyi, he defeated an NDP incumbent in their majority election due to him being a very popular HRM councillor, he was a Liberal and that seat is now Tory). Bill Casey will obviously win hugely but that's not really against the grain, so I guess if John Morgan in Glace Bay-Dominion wins he would take that role.

[beesley]

There has been remarkably little polling in this election. Does anyone have the slightest idea who is winning or at least doing better or worse than expected?

Nope, outside of the big four provinces there's always a dearth of polling. Same thing happened in the Newfoundland election just gone.

[beesley]

Also, probably better for the Liberals due to early voting when the numbers were a bit better?

[beesley]

lmao

[beesley]

One of those elections which will make perfect sense in hindsight, but not so much at the time. Great result for the PCs.

Anyone know what happened in Northside Westmount? I'm aware the Liberal candidate was good and the PC candidate only just won the by-election but it's an odd one.

[beesley]

As usual, swings in various directions; 42 between PCs & Liberals, 10 between NDP & Liberals, two between PCs & NDP and one between Independent & PCs.

Twelve seats swung from Tory to Liberal: four in Cape Breton, five in Metro and three on the mainland (specifically, Pictou County).

Biggest PC-Lib swing: Northside - Westmount (26.3%) (the only Liberal gain)
Biggest PC-Lib swing without the seat changing hands: Cape Breton East (16.0%)
Biggest PC-Lib swing in a Liberal-held seat: Cole Harbour - Dartmouth (6.4%)


Thirty seats swung from Liberal to Conservative, most of them on the rural mainland but a few in HRM suburbs and even a couple in Cape Breton.

Biggest Lib-PC swing: Digby - Annapolis (21.7%) (PC gain)
Biggest Lib-PC swing without the seat changing hands: Annapolis (16.9%)
Biggest Lib-PC swing in a Tory-held seat: Cumberland South (19.3%)


Eight seats swung from Liberal to NDP, all of them in Metro.

Biggest Lib-NDP swing: Dartmouth South (14.5%) (NDP held)
Biggest Lib-NDP swing without the seat changing hands: Fairview - Clayton Park (4.8%)


Two seats swung from NDP to Liberal, both in Cape Breton: Sydney - Membertou (10.5%) & Cape Breton Centre - Whitney Pier (3.9%). The Liberals already held the former, and came close to gaining the latter.


The two seats to swing from NDP to Tory were the two ridings flipped in by-elections: Sackville - Cobequid (14.8%) & Truro - Bible Hill - etc. (21.6%). The PC majority in Sackville was actually larger than that in the by-election.


Overall, Liberals dropped to third in two ridings (Glace Bay - Dominion & Sackville - Cobequid) while the NDP dropped to third in three (Pictou West, Chester - St. Margaret's & Truro). Tories fell to fourth in Cumberland North.

I know that you've all you following this thread have been waiting on baited breath, unable to sleep, for Frank's cabinet prediction.  Okay, none of you have, but you all should have!


I don't think this will be completely correct as I don't think the cabinet will actually be this large or that these will be all actual ministries.

1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, Tim Houston
2.Finance, Allan MacMaster
3.Economic Development and Trade, Steve Craig
4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Trevor Boudreau
5.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship, Kim Masland
6.Natural Resources and Forestry, Tory Rushton
7.Energy and Mines, Keith Bains
8.Agriculture, Fisheries and Aquaculture, John Lohr
9.Environment, Barbara Adams
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Karla MacFarlane
11.Service Nova Scotia, Brian Wong
12.Children and Family Development, Jill Besler
13.Social Development and Housing, Larry Harrison
14.Education, Susan Corkum Greek
15.Advanced Education and Training, Colton LeBlanc
16.Health, Tim Halman
17.Municiptal Affairs, Brad Johns
18.Indigenous Relations, Michelle Thompson
19.Justice and Public Safety, Becky Durham

Speaker, Pat Dunn
Whip, Dave Ritcey
Caucus Chair, Tom Taggart

My track record is to get a lot of the names right (though far from all) for getting into the cabinet, but to get them in the wrong positions.

Pat Dunn is the only P.C MLA to have previously served in cabinet, all be it in a fairly junior ministry (health promotion and protection) but I think he loses out in Pictou based on the numbers game.

Keith Bain is the only other P.C MLA to have been on the government benches, but he was, I believe, the Deputy Speaker at the time.

Part of the problem with forming a cabinet taking gender into consideration is that this is the gender breakdown of the P.C MLAs

Mainland: 12 men, 8 women
Halifax: 5 men, 1 woman
Cape Breton, 5 men

So, providing representation for Halifax and Cape Breton in the cabinet makes it harder to appoint more women to the cabinet.

(In addition to the 9 women in the P.C caucus, there are 5 women in the Liberal caucus, 5 in the NDP caucus and the one independent, so 20 of the 55 MLAs are women.)

This is quality content from both of you. Thanks!

[beesley]

On the subject of members' longevity, there are now only two Liberals who've been in the House since before the Grit victory in 2013 (Churchill & Regan), and eight who've only been in the House during the Liberal administration (including Rankin). Seven are new.

As for the New Democrats, only one (Gary Burrill) was first elected before 2017, and two are new.

The Tories have two members (Bain & Dunn) who were around during the MacDonald government, though neither have served continuously since then (Bain lost in 2013 & came back in 2017, while Dunn lost in 2009 & got back in in 2013). Fifteen were first elected two weeks ago, of which six are now in the Government.

Overall, the MLA with the longest continuous service is Kelly Regan (Bedford Basin), who's been in since 2009. Keith Bain & Pat Dunn were first elected in 2006, but have had periods of being out of the House in the meantime.

Apologies if this has already been announced, but I presume Keith Bain is the most likely candidate to be Speaker?