Another one?:DownWithTheLeft's Senate Predicitions:
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  Another one?:DownWithTheLeft's Senate Predicitions:
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Author Topic: Another one?:DownWithTheLeft's Senate Predicitions:  (Read 3112 times)
DownWithTheLeft
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« on: September 19, 2006, 04:19:14 PM »
« edited: September 19, 2006, 04:22:16 PM by DownWithTheLeft »

Democrat >15
California, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Vermont

Republican >15
Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Nevada, Texas, Utah, Wyoming

Democrat >5 <15
Maryland
Michael Steele is a popular Lt. Gov. and a great candidate who would have beaten Kwesi Mfume.  But Cardin is much more moderate, in a liberal state, in a presumably Democratic year.
Final Prediction: Cardin by 6

Michigan
Unless Debbie Stabenow has a reversal of 2000, she should win this race.  Bouchard got a boost from the primary but it seems to have evaporated.  Barring a large misstep or a huge DeVos victory, Stabenow should easily win
Final Prediction: Stabenow by 11

Minnesota
Mark Kennedy is a good candidate, but not in Minnesota.  What originally seemed like the GOP's best chance, no doesn't seem like a realistic possibility.  He has gone to the way of Lynn Swann and really doesn't stand a chance.
Final Prediction: Klobuchar by 8

Ohio
Yeah, maybe I'm overestimating Sherrod Brown, but I really think Mike DeWine is fading fast.  DeWine is hurt not by his corruption, but by the general assumption that the OH GOP is extremely corrupt.  As Strickland seems to be clearing the path to a 20+ point victory, I don't see Sherrod Brown losing.
Final Prediction: Brown by 6 DEM PICK-UP

Democrat <5
Montana
It seems as if there is a recurring theme in this race: Burn's opens his mouth says something stupid, but Tester does nothing about it.  Tester is a bad campaigner, but I still don't think he can mess up the oppurtunity to take out arguably the least popular senator
Final Prediction: Tester by 3 DEM PICK UP

Tennessee
Bob Corker is flip-flopping on many issues and Harold Ford is a very strong candidate.  Ford should get a boost from Bressden's big victory, and it might be enough to carry him to victory.  Harold Ford Jr. will become close to Ben Nelson in voting record, so this isn't a huge victory for the Democrats other than numbers wise
Final Prediction: Ford by <1 DEM PICK UP

Republican <5
Rhode Island
While you can hardly call this seat a Republican hold, Lincoln Chaffee is a fairly popular incumbent who appeals to all people except the bases of each party.  Moderates and RINOs tend to win elections, and Chaffee probably will keep this up.
Final Prediction: Chaffee by 2

Pennsylvania
Rick Santorum is just too known for coming back, and Bob Casey is just too known as an awful candidate.  This was an oppurtunity for the Dems, and Allison Schwartz probably would have one, but I just think Casey is not a good candidate.  If he wins, he would join Ben Nelson also, but I just don't see it happening.
Final Prediction: Santorum by 2

New Jersey
I'm not going to write a lot here as most of my posts focus on this, but I really don't think Menendez has much of a chance
Final Prediction: Kean by 3 GOP PICK UP

Missouri
Jim Talent really hasn't done anything warranting getting the boot, and McCaskill is much more liberal than Missouri.  In a state that is continually moving right, I don't see Talent having that much trouble getting elected.  In 1994, this would have been a race that is in Debbie Stabenow territory right now.
Final Prediction: Talent by 4

Republican >5 <15
Virginia
I'm just not buying macaca killing George Allen, especially not in Viriginia.  Webb was probably the best candidate outside of Mark Warner, but I really don't see this usually conservative state booting Allen.  Webb, like others mentioned before, would be among the most conservative Democrats.  Allen wins much easier than expected
Final Prediction: Allen by 8

Arizona
Just on here because it's not over 15, Kyl cruises
Final Prediction: Kyl by 13

Lieberman by 7, just to add it
FINAL: Dems +1, Ind +1
Breakdown (Lieberman as Ind): 53-45-2
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poughies
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2006, 04:30:35 PM »

You have my favorite two candidates winning (lieberman and Ford) that said I'm not buying the big santorum come back..... Call me when Santorum is within the margin of error and when Rendell isn't winning big.

As for Ford's record, I disagree. I see him more as a Pyror or Lincoln than I do a Nelson. Example A: would be abortion stance.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2006, 04:34:52 PM »

No way do both Ford and Santorum win.
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Kevin
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2006, 04:39:17 PM »

Santorum is going to lose, he is a man swimming in a riptide of discontent and Casey has been ahead for most of the spring and summer and going into fall. In the end I think it will be close but Santorum will fall short.
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poughies
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2006, 04:40:03 PM »

agreed.
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Virginian87
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2006, 04:57:30 PM »

If Allen wins the race in Virginia, he WILL NOT win by more than 4. 
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Kevin
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2006, 05:05:49 PM »

If Allen wins the race in Virginia, he WILL NOT win by more than 4. 
He's ruined his 08 presidental ambitions.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2006, 05:36:01 PM »

I can see that I've started a whole-scale trend on this forum.  Nice.  Smiley
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2006, 06:23:53 PM »

It's nice for him to pick this but his maps don't reflect that. I don't think Santorum and Ford survives.
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Conan
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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2006, 08:05:04 PM »

Democrat >15
California, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Vermont

Republican >15
Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Nevada, Texas, Utah, Wyoming

Democrat >5 <15
Maryland
Michael Steele is a popular Lt. Gov. and a great candidate who would have beaten Kwesi Mfume.  But Cardin is much more moderate, in a liberal state, in a presumably Democratic year.
Final Prediction: Cardin by 6

Michigan
Unless Debbie Stabenow has a reversal of 2000, she should win this race.  Bouchard got a boost from the primary but it seems to have evaporated.  Barring a large misstep or a huge DeVos victory, Stabenow should easily win
Final Prediction: Stabenow by 11

Minnesota
Mark Kennedy is a good candidate, but not in Minnesota.  What originally seemed like the GOP's best chance, no doesn't seem like a realistic possibility.  He has gone to the way of Lynn Swann and really doesn't stand a chance.
Final Prediction: Klobuchar by 8

Ohio
Yeah, maybe I'm overestimating Sherrod Brown, but I really think Mike DeWine is fading fast.  DeWine is hurt not by his corruption, but by the general assumption that the OH GOP is extremely corrupt.  As Strickland seems to be clearing the path to a 20+ point victory, I don't see Sherrod Brown losing.
Final Prediction: Brown by 6 DEM PICK-UP

Democrat <5
Montana
It seems as if there is a recurring theme in this race: Burn's opens his mouth says something stupid, but Tester does nothing about it.  Tester is a bad campaigner, but I still don't think he can mess up the oppurtunity to take out arguably the least popular senator
Final Prediction: Tester by 3 DEM PICK UP

Tennessee
Bob Corker is flip-flopping on many issues and Harold Ford is a very strong candidate.  Ford should get a boost from Bressden's big victory, and it might be enough to carry him to victory.  Harold Ford Jr. will become close to Ben Nelson in voting record, so this isn't a huge victory for the Democrats other than numbers wise
Final Prediction: Ford by <1 DEM PICK UP

Republican <5
Rhode Island
While you can hardly call this seat a Republican hold, Lincoln Chaffee is a fairly popular incumbent who appeals to all people except the bases of each party.  Moderates and RINOs tend to win elections, and Chaffee probably will keep this up.
Final Prediction: Chaffee by 2

Pennsylvania
Rick Santorum is just too known for coming back, and Bob Casey is just too known as an awful candidate.  This was an oppurtunity for the Dems, and Allison Schwartz probably would have one, but I just think Casey is not a good candidate.  If he wins, he would join Ben Nelson also, but I just don't see it happening.
Final Prediction: Santorum by 2

New Jersey
I'm not going to write a lot here as most of my posts focus on this, but I really don't think Menendez has much of a chance
Final Prediction: Kean by 3 GOP PICK UP

Missouri
Jim Talent really hasn't done anything warranting getting the boot, and McCaskill is much more liberal than Missouri.  In a state that is continually moving right, I don't see Talent having that much trouble getting elected.  In 1994, this would have been a race that is in Debbie Stabenow territory right now.
Final Prediction: Talent by 4

Republican >5 <15
Virginia
I'm just not buying macaca killing George Allen, especially not in Viriginia.  Webb was probably the best candidate outside of Mark Warner, but I really don't see this usually conservative state booting Allen.  Webb, like others mentioned before, would be among the most conservative Democrats.  Allen wins much easier than expected
Final Prediction: Allen by 8

Arizona
Just on here because it's not over 15, Kyl cruises
Final Prediction: Kyl by 13

Lieberman by 7, just to add it
FINAL: Dems +1, Ind +1
Breakdown (Lieberman as Ind): 53-45-2
It seems like your just trading your old crappy predictions just to boost your credibility. And then you just have some whacky ones.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2006, 09:27:47 PM »

I disagree with you on Pennsylvania and Tennessee. Until Santorum leads this race, this edge must go to Casey. While I hope and cross my fingers for Ford to win, I still think it's too early to predict he'll win.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2006, 10:23:59 PM »

Pennsylvania
 This was an oppurtunity for the Dems, and Allison Schwartz probably would have one, but I just think Casey is not a good candidate.  If he wins, he would join Ben Nelson also, but I just don't see it happening.
Final Prediction: Santorum by 2

No, she wouldn't have won. She would have a lot of money to attack Santorum but as many will learn this year that doesn't necessarily mean a win. You aren't going to beat Santorum by just attacking him. Secondly, Schwartz has only been in the House for a little under two years. There would be too many questions about her experience and she would seem politically greedy trying for the seat again so soon (she ran in 2000 but came in second in the primary). Finally, the reason why I don't think she'll ever be elected to statewide office is perception - guys, she comes across as an ultra liberal woman from the Philadelphia. She ran an abortion clinic before getting into politics. The GOP would have too much fun with her as the nominee.



Call me when Santorum is within the margin of error and when Rendell isn't winning big.

So in order for Santorum to win Rendell has to be in a close race? Bill Clinton brought the people to the polls in '92 yet Santorum won in his overwhelmingly Dem House district with over 60% of the vote.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2006, 12:20:37 AM »

why isnt Washington on your list? Do you not like us?

Anyways, being serious now, the only problem I have is the dems winning Tennessee but losing Pennsylvania, otherwise... not bad
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Smash255
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« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2006, 12:43:13 AM »

While I disagree with some of the pics, its a bit more realistic than your last map on the Prediction page
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2006, 02:46:10 PM »

I disagree with you on Pennsylvania and Tennessee. Until Santorum leads this race, this edge must go to Casey. While I hope and cross my fingers for Ford to win, I still think it's too early to predict he'll win.

I'm predicting who I believe will win on November 7th, not who is ahead today
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poughies
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« Reply #15 on: September 20, 2006, 04:15:08 PM »

yes but this is an anti-gop year and a house district is much different than a statewide vote..... not to mention perot.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2006, 04:20:11 PM »

yes but this is an anti-gop year and a house district is much different than a statewide vote..... not to mention perot.

What is this in reference to?
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poughies
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« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2006, 04:25:28 PM »

santorum and my remark that unless Rendell's numbers slide a little bit, it would be awfully difficult for Casey to lose because of the large amount of democratic voters is southeast PA.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2006, 04:36:58 PM »

I can't predict Casey losing either, Swann is a drag on the ticket and most of the polls have him up. All the internals and public polls, unless Casey makes a mistake, I can't predict him losing either.
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poughies
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« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2006, 04:40:27 PM »

yea that is what i'm going for.....
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2006, 04:46:23 PM »

I disagree with you on Pennsylvania and Tennessee. Until Santorum leads this race, this edge must go to Casey. While I hope and cross my fingers for Ford to win, I still think it's too early to predict he'll win.

I'm predicting who I believe will win on November 7th, not who is ahead today

Gotcha. I hope you're right about Tennessee. The only reason I don't have Ford winning is that Tennessee is a socially conservative state that is trending even more Republican.

Great job with the predictions!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #21 on: September 20, 2006, 04:49:07 PM »

And Ford is basically a liberal except the Iraq war.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2006, 04:51:09 PM »

And Ford is basically a liberal except the Iraq war.

Yes supporting the FMA is the most liberal thing I've ever seen
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poughies
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« Reply #23 on: September 20, 2006, 04:53:03 PM »

yea, bankrupcy bill, partial birth abortion bans..... He is hard to peg and has moved more towards the center. I sill believe him to be more of a lincoln/pryor type dem than a nelson type.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: September 20, 2006, 04:54:13 PM »
« Edited: September 20, 2006, 04:56:17 PM by Quincy »

He is for tax increases not tax cuts that doesn't play well in TN. But Corker is can win but the race can go either way, I am putting my money on McCaskill.
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