TX: Survey USA: Perry(R) still leads by double digits over opponents

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Texas Governor by Survey USA on 2006-09-18

Summary: D: 23%, R: 35%, U: 25%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Adlai Stevenson]

So Chris Bell has apparently broken out of the pack?  I know 23% of the vote is hardly great but for a time I thought that any one of the non-Perry contenders could come second. 

[Sam Spade]

So Chris Bell has apparently broken out of the pack?  I know 23% of the vote is hardly great but for a time I thought that any one of the non-Perry contenders could come second. 

He's tied with Kinky in this poll.  How is that "breaking out of the pack?"

[adam]

It's the final stretch. Call me crazy, but I think I see Strayhorn sinking into a non-factor in this election. Knowing what I know now about Chris Bell (that he is a religious extremist who actually uses Jesus to attack his opponents)...I am really hoping Kinky's ad campaign can pull him in.

[Sam Spade]

An interesting fact from the crosstabs of the poll:

Kinky is getting more Republican voters than Grandma.  Grandma is getting more Democratic voters than Kinky.

Interesting thing about that is that it would show that Kinky is getting about half of his voters from Republicans.  Strayhorn too.

[MasterJedi]

So there are actually people who think Perry will lose if everybody stays in the race?

[nlm]

I'm an ex-Texas guy (that hasn't stayed in touch that much) - and I'd like some explanation of why things are polling the way they are. What are folks doing right and what are folks doing wrong. Any long time texans have an answer for me?

[adam]

I'm an ex-Texas guy (that hasn't stayed in touch that much) - and I'd like some explanation of why things are polling the way they are. What are folks doing right and what are folks doing wrong. Any long time texans have an answer for me?

The best explanation I can offer is that Texans are sick of Governor Goodhair and his failed policies which place Texas last in education funding and first in drop out rates and toll roads. The only problem is that the 60-65% of people that want Perry out of office have three options to choose from and all three are doing relatively well.

[Gustaf]

I'm an ex-Texas guy (that hasn't stayed in touch that much) - and I'd like some explanation of why things are polling the way they are. What are folks doing right and what are folks doing wrong. Any long time texans have an answer for me?

The best explanation I can offer is that Texans are sick of Governor Goodhair and his failed policies which place Texas last in education funding and first in drop out rates and toll roads. The only problem is that the 60-65% of people that want Perry out of office have three options to choose from and all three are doing relatively well.

It seems like the key problem is that the Democratic party in Texas is such a mess that they couldn't beat even an impopular governor like Perry, but still decided to run a candidate. And with the field open two independents decided to have a go. Had there been a serious opposition party in Texas Perry would likely be on his way out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one expects Perry to lose, the Republicans control every single branch of the government in TX. If the gap was withing single digits, I can see one gets their hopes up, but being just below 40% is just not good enough.

[agcatter]

This is one Republican who will vote for Kinky.  Perry will win, Kinky will come in second, and Bell and Strayhorn will battle it out for last place.

One reason that Strayhorn is polling decent among Democrats is because the teacher organization TSTA- NEA (which always endorses the Democratic candidate) has this time endorsed Strayhorn.  Bell was cooked anyway, but that developement finished him off.

No Democrat has won a statewide vote in Texas since 96.  Outside of the Hispanic vote in South Texas, lefty UT student vote in Travis county, and minority vote from inner city Houston and Dallas, there is no support for Democrats in Texas.  Republicans poll 70 to 75% of the white vote throughout the state.  Of course, Howard Dean is on the verge of turning that around any day now.  Hehe

[adam]

No one expects Perry to lose, the Republicans control every single branch of the government in TX. If the gap was withing single digits, I can see one gets their hopes up, but being just below 40% is just not good enough.

No one expects Perry to lose yes. However, this doesn't translate to new Perry voters. People don't vote for candidates because they think they are going to win, they vote based on their current state of satisfaction with the state which (at the moment) is not giving Perry anything to dance about. I was watching Kinky on Imus the other day and I heard him mention a debate, I think the polls after that said debate should really give us a clear picture of what November will look like. Until then, we are all in the dark.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying that Perry is going to definately win, but he probably will, but there is always a possibility of an upset, which isn't probable but possible.

[agcatter]

Still possible.  If it happens it will be Kinky and that would be just fine with me.

[WMS]

An interesting fact from the crosstabs of the poll:

Kinky is getting more Republican voters than Grandma.  Grandma is getting more Democratic voters than Kinky.

Interesting thing about that is that it would show that Kinky is getting about half of his voters from Republicans.  Strayhorn too.

This race has now scrambled itself impressively.

Question for Sam: since the bases of support seem to have shifted...

...if Strayhorn ever implodes (she hasn't done that yet but she has basically treaded water), who will her supporters go to?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So Kinky's comments about Katrina refugees has helped him?

[adam]

So Kinky's comments about Katrina refugees has helped him?

Speaking the hard truth usually helps every candidate.