Districts based off Clinton '16 voters

[bagelman]

Here is the election in this timeline




The minimum she needed was just MI, but I also flipped WI/PA/FL for the sake of a clear victory and then flipped TX/OH/GA/NC based on average district calculations I did.

When I've been bored, especially during this quarantine, I've been making maps based on states apportioned based on number of voters for a specific candidate. In other worlds, states where each CD has an equal number of votes for a particular candidate, ignoring their total population. The result is an alternate US where the population is differently distributed. I've pretty much made all of them, most of the better part of a year ago: DRA is strangely addicting for me. However DRA does not have complete 2016 data for the whole nation so some states shall be missing. New York, Connecticut, and West Virginia are examples.

This has generally been Obama '08, McCain '08, Hillary '16 (this thread), or Trump '16. This map series will show each state's congressional districts in this world, the population they have in our world, and how Hillary Clinton and Orange Man did in them in our world.

In this world, Clinton wins the election by firing Robby Mook and leaning into her husbands expertise as a retail politician to humanize herself. Trump is also caught with another gaffe that I won't even get into. The problem of Democrats bleeding WCWs and their long term issues with smaller states in general, with Trump winning more states than Clinton, is still an issue.

The OTL election results will be extrapolated as house district results.

[bagelman]

Alabama, 5 districts

https://davesredistricting.org/join/41afc4fa-9a31-40a0-9352-68fe06b774e8



The Birmingham based 2nd is roughly racially equal. while the black belt district is over 60% black. The other districts are Safe R. 2D-3R.

[bagelman]

Arkansas



https://davesredistricting.org/join/2bc27970-285b-407d-983d-da49f3be4892

Democrats groan as Pine Bluff and Little Rock aren't in the same district. 3R.

[bagelman]

Arizona

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4f0a3bf6-3ece-4dbf-9584-e7e31e3c82ce



AZ-1: Tucson, Safe D.

AZ-2: Southern Arizona including outer Tucson. Lean R. Demographically almost the same as the first.

AZ-3: Northern Arizona. Safe R.

AZ-4: Southern Sun. Likely R

AZ-5: Northern Phoenix. Safe R.

AZ-6: Majority hispanic western valley, Likely D.

AZ-7: Eastern valley, Lean R

AZ-8: Phoenix. Safe D.

3D-5R

The margin of this purple state is almost nothing in favor of Dems.

[bagelman]

California has 57 districts, of which only 5 are Republican and 52 are Democratic. The big story from there is district 55 in eastern San Diego county, once though strongly red, has narrowly elected a Democrat.

Highest loss of OTL population density is actually from district 25, one of the Republican districts uniting part of both Fresno and Bakersfield, with a large portion of its hispanic majority nonvoters. Highest population density gain from OTL is district 8 north of SF.

Highest white majority is district 2, highest hispanic majority is district 39 at over 90% of the population, highest black population is district 36 which also has the smallest NH white population, and highest Asian population is district 18 north of SJ.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4bb50ebc-04dd-4d9c-adb2-74258469f1c1

Screenshot album

[bagelman]

Colorado has 9 districts, neatly compact and split between 4 "outer" Republicans and 5 metropolitan Democrats. None of the seats are particularly competitive. Minority politics is a factor in districts 7 and 8.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8df2a874-0281-4230-b8e7-5c1c9339f50b

[bagelman]

DC: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9aecdeb0-68f2-448a-a6ee-4bd37b3cbda9

A black district and a white district, both Safe D.

DE: https://davesredistricting.org/join/06fdd0c6-9596-4d9c-b195-1782723937f2

2 district Delaware, and the southern district has been picked up by the GOP candidate.

FL: https://davesredistricting.org/join/a89cef86-e223-41a4-ae91-ee93cb3a9a4a



District 23 is black majority. Districts 27-29 are all hispanic majority (12 is almost), and district 28 is the Cuban district that has surprised everyone by flipping blue. With Democrats picking up 28 and 9 (north Orlando) and Republicans have defended 17 but lost the turnout war in 2, Florida has a 17D-13R split.

[bagelman]

Georgia

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9ee73e63-10c8-4025-bc39-280740ccef82



12 districts

There are 4 strongly Democrat districts, of which 3 are black majority. There are 3 largely rural ruby red districts. That leaves 5 purple districts in Georgia, and Democrats manage to win 3 of them. The result is a 7D-5R map.

The original version of this map had GA-10 and GA-11 both Likely R southwestern districts that were 40% black. I decided a black majority district for GA-10 was appropriate if ugly, leaving GA-11 as an equally ugly Safe R leftover.

[bagelman]

Hawaii: https://davesredistricting.org/join/f6018298-361e-4124-9839-b1f472fdc99f

Iowa:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4c1e9604-ad5b-45eb-be33-2b82c0988062



Iowa currently has 4 Republicans, although only one is safe. Quite an impressive sweep for the GOP.

Indiana



Democrats win IN-6, traditionally a haven for moderate GOP suburbanites. It's the only purple district statewide. 4R-3D

[bagelman]

Illinois, 20 districts

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d498b7e3-1415-4344-b1a1-2ee7d8e93a76





Illinois is neatly divided between 15 Democratic Chicagoland districts and 5 Republican downstate districts. 15D-5R.

Districts 1-3 are black, district 4 is hispanic, and many other Chicago districts are highly diverse especially the plurality black downtown 5th. Highest Asian population is the uptown 11th.

[bagelman]

Kansas, 3 districts



1 blue district and 2 red districts. The Democrat is insecure however.

[bagelman]

Kentucky

https://davesredistricting.org/join/39ee36b3-ba8c-4098-b769-d7340e657e37



2 deep red rural districts, KY-2 is also red as Lexington is easily overpowered by south Cincy, leaving a single Democrat from Louisville.

[bagelman]

Lousiana

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bd0fd98e-165f-486c-a41d-e7d34caea02a



2d-3r. LA-5 is 40% black, supposed to be black opportunity, but the local whites are just too firmly red. LA-2 is also vulnerable.

[bagelman]

Massachusetts

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9091b50f-bc3e-45e9-814b-26d4323975cf



MA-1 is the only competitive district, and so far it joins the others for 13 Democrats. MA-4 is minority majority.

[bagelman]

Maryland

https://davesredistricting.org/join/398c9e3c-5650-47a9-9812-a5ffc0265da1



8D-3R. The only purple district is the 3rd, which very narrowly went GOP and will probably stay like that over the midterms. Districts 4, 7, and 11 are black majority. District 8 is black plurality, district 9 is white plurality, all others white majority.

[bagelman]

Maine



https://davesredistricting.org/join/aa8fa2a2-0944-4696-97cf-abb33a92af8d

1 for each.

[bagelman]

Michigan



https://davesredistricting.org/join/9a16029c-9f1b-4fbc-9b1f-a6024d82940d

9 Democrats and 6 Republicans. MI-6 will likely flip over the midterms, even MI-13 is more secure. 1 and 2 are both black majority Detroit districts.

[bagelman]

Minnesota

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1dcdb03e-41cd-4836-a095-00a25e77e774

https://imgur.com/a/XGDKZiy

6 Democrats and 3 Republicans, although district 6 will likely flip over the midterms.

[Chips]

Very interesting!

[bagelman]

Missouri



https://davesredistricting.org/join/a230d9d3-e40e-4f5a-9b67-3d696903c3aa

3D-4R and entirely stable. District 1 is black majority. 2 STL districts, a suburban R district, 3 rurals, and KC.

[bagelman]

North Carolina

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a230d9d3-e40e-4f5a-9b67-3d696903c3aa



Currently 9D-5R although the GOP will be aiming for 6D-8R after the midterms. The least white district is actually the 9th, the lowest hanging fruit for the GOP and the most Native, while the most black is the 1st. Most hispanic is 10, most Asian is 4.

[bagelman]

Nebraska: https://davesredistricting.org/join/f177ab13-77a0-4a81-9162-c4f066efe12a 2R, with the GOP holding the Omaha district

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Would you mind if I do a "districts based off Trump '16 voters" thread?

[bagelman]

New Jersey

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4db236a2-3519-4e36-b8aa-7439aa3a84a6



14 districts, 11D-3R

Lots of minority majority districts that are just under white majority. 2, 3, 4, 8, and 9 are all white plurality, with 8 the only with which at a third instead of over 45%. District 1 is hispanic plurality in the low 40s, the 5th is black majority, and the 2nd and 8th are both over 20% Asian. As for the GOP, they narrowly won the 14th and will seriously contest the 10th.

Would you mind if I do a "districts based off Trump '16 voters" thread?

You can do what you want, this idea isn't patented, although I appreciate you asking. The only thing that makes that awkward is that I've already made just as many maps for that as for Hillary. Most of these maps were made last year. So I will likely be posting a thread of my own for him.

[bagelman]

New Mexico

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8726ffa8-2607-4fac-ae83-7425b4e01f96



1 is Alb, 2 is South, 3 is North. Stable 2D-1R. All are Hispanic plurality, the 3rd oddly enough is the furthest away from Hispanic majority.

Nevada, 4 districts

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2c20b513-456e-4cf8-85b1-5a24d545fb05



NV-1 is not shown but it's obvious where it is.

Stable 2D-2R for purple Nevada. The two Dems divide LV on an east/west basis. The western 3rd is white plurality and has a larger Asian population, while the eastern 4th is hispanic plurality and has a larger black population.

Ohio, 16 districts

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c42198ef-f640-4473-b8a9-97f2a80a9c23



Ohio actually votes narrowly Clinton, as I have calculated in DRA. It is 9D-7R. In this universe it may be a former blue state becoming purple, or maybe Columbus is just much more important than the rural backcountry.

OH-1: 50/40 white-black Safe D Cincinnati district.

OH-2 Safe R outer Cincinnati.

OH-3: Safe R rural west. OTL population 1.2 million.

OH-4: 1/5th black, narrow GOP win by about 200 votes.

OH-5: Rural south and southeast. Safe R, OTL population 1.3 million

OH-6: Southeast Columbus and Athens. 25% black. Sorry Not Sorry Zanesville.

OH-7: Toledo based district remains blue for Kaptur but Republicans will compete here

OH-8: Safe R Canton and other small cities.

OH-9: Wester Columbus and OSU

OH-10: Northeast Columbus and Delaware. 25% black.

OH-11: Rural north central. OTL population 1 million.

OH-12: Lorain and western Cuyahoga. Republicans will compete here.

OH-13: Akron-Kent and north. My home.

OH-14: Cleveland. 25% black.

OH-15: Eastern Cleveland. 60% black.

OH-16: Republican northeastern district. Joyce defeats Ryan, at least he does if he moves away from Chagrin Falls (13th). Regardless Ryan loses. Youngstown was put into a GOP leaning district on purpose tbh.