2020 if Trump supported strict lockdown measures

[wimp]

What if in early 2020 (when COVID-19 had yet to reach any western cities), Trump started supporting strict lockdowns, masking, and quarantining?

[Chips]

No real impact.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Trump wins

[Agonized-Statism]

Anti-maskers would be a much smaller problem, and the election would focus less on them. We may never know what specifically swayed individual voters in Georgia and Arizona, but I suspect a lot of them flipped due to Trump botching COVID, so maybe results there get closer.

[Vice President Christian Man]

By going hard on Covid, Trump might've lost some libertarian support to Jorgenson, but I think most of his supporters would've gone lockstep and supported him, so the response would not have been as politicized and I think he would've gained some Trump-Biden voters. In the end, NE-2, Georgia, and Wisconsin would've flipped to Trump, but he would've still lost. In the politically charged atmosphere, we were in, I think that both Clinton and Trump would've been one-term presidents.  Trump was never popular outside his base initially and with the possible exception of Nevada and Maine at large, I wouldn't have seen him flip other states if COVID never happened.  Minnesota was gone due to the George Floyd protests, Michigan would've been close, but Biden lacked the lack of Dem turnout compared to Clinton, so that wouldn't have been an issue, Biden was essentially PA's third senator and it was surprising he won it as narrowly as he did, although I initially thought Trump would narrowly win it for a second time, and he basically ticked off most voters in Arizona by insulting McCain and in New Hampshire when he referred to it as a drug-infested den.  If anything, I think COVID helped Trump because Biden had less of an opportunity to present himself, as he spent much of the latter part of his campaign social distancing, while Trump was hosting in-person rallies. This probably cost Biden NC, FL, and maybe even TX.

[S019]

He probably wins honestly

[TML]

Look at how voters in New Zealand rewarded their ruling party with an increased majority in the 2020 election there as a result of how its government responded to the pandemic. Trump would almost certainly have won reelection against Biden had he done what the government in NZ did during 1Q2020. (Note that Biden was essentially the same kind of establishment Democratic candidate that Hillary was, so if Trump had used his 2016 campaign playbook on Biden, he could have taken Biden down the same way he did with Hillary).

[DabbingSanta]

Trump loses by a much larger margin.  In Ontario, the Conservative Party supported strict lockdown measures, and they received massive backlash from their base as a result.  I don't see how it's any different in the states.  People like Trumpism, but they don't necessarily take everything Trump says verbatim.  It would be comparable to Trump randomly announcing he supports gun confiscation, or that he wants to open abortion clinics at every corner.  People would think he lost it.

[OBD]

Trump loses by a much larger margin.  In Ontario, the Conservative Party supported strict lockdown measures, and they received massive backlash from their base as a result.  I don't see how it's any different in the states.  People like Trumpism, but they don't necessarily take everything Trump says verbatim.  It would be comparable to Trump randomly announcing he supports gun confiscation, or that he wants to open abortion clinics at every corner.  People would think he lost it.

I mean you'd think that storming the Capitol would be more of a turnoff for voters than *gasp*, strict COVID-19 regulations!

That said, I think this could definitely have flipped the election narrowly to Trump.

[Continential]

Trump loses by a much larger margin.  In Ontario, the Conservative Party supported strict lockdown measures, and they received massive backlash from their base as a result.  I don't see how it's any different in the states.  People like Trumpism, but they don't necessarily take everything Trump says verbatim.  It would be comparable to Trump randomly announcing he supports gun confiscation, or that he wants to open abortion clinics at every corner.  People would think he lost it.

I thought that the Tories were still leading in Ontario?

[NewYorkExpress]

The Republican base turns dramatically on Trump. In addition, assuming the George Floyd situation and Trump's reaction is the same, most NeverTrump Republicans openly vote for Biden.

Most stay home, with some voting for Jorgenson.

Joe Biden/Kamala Harris (D) 53%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 39%
Jo Jorgenson/Spike Cohen (L) 7%

[DabbingSanta]

Trump loses by a much larger margin.  In Ontario, the Conservative Party supported strict lockdown measures, and they received massive backlash from their base as a result.  I don't see how it's any different in the states.  People like Trumpism, but they don't necessarily take everything Trump says verbatim.  It would be comparable to Trump randomly announcing he supports gun confiscation, or that he wants to open abortion clinics at every corner.  People would think he lost it.

I thought that the Tories were still leading in Ontario?

Narrowly, but I have the sense the polls are very wrong or Ford is getting support from unusual places (former liberals maybe).  I don't know a single conservative that would vote for him again, except maybe my 83 year old uncle.  When you lose your base you lose the election.  I am confident Ford will lose in 2022.