PA 13

[krazen1211]

The PA Delegation will be all male if Boyle wins, so somebody from Emily's list and company might back the last woman standing.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm hearing Arkoosh might actually be legit. She supposedly has Schwartz's support, a great reputation as an activist and a ton of money.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'm hearing Arkoosh might actually be legit. She supposedly has Schwartz's support, a great reputation as an activist and a ton of money.

In which I could see a split liberal base with Boyle picking up the union and Reagan Dems similar to the 2000 PA Dem Senate primary.

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz stated that she doesn't intend to make an endorsement here.

[TeePee4Prez]

Schwartz stated that she doesn't intend to make an endorsement here.

I would find it as hard as her to make one as well!   Basically for me it's let's hear them out.  As hard as it would be to go against Brendan Boyle personally, I have some disagreements with him on policies I agree with Daylin Leach on.  Choice and marijuana legalization are 2 issues I'm not going to look the other way on.  That said it would not behoove Brendan to agree with those positions looking at his potential base of support.  In the end I think it will come down to Leach vs. Boyle with Arkoosh being the last liberal holdout ultimately backing Leach results Leach 64- Boyle 36.  Boyle will win Fox Chase, Mayfair, and blocks near parishes easily, but it won't be enough to overcome Leach's national support (NY + MA + CA + IL $$$$) and the rest of the district which is generally secular.  The airwaves will decimate Boyle.

[Keystone Phil]

And it should be noted that Leach will do well in certain areas of the NE. Losing areas like mine to PA 1 really hurts Boyle.

[TeePee4Prez]

And it should be noted that Leach will do well in certain areas of the NE. Losing areas like mine to PA 1 really hurts Boyle.

Losing the river Wards to Brady hurts Boyle BADLY hence my prediction.  We'd be talking a much closer race, possibly a 50-50 split with Holmesburg, Tacony, Bridesburg, and Port Richmond in the district.  Fox Chase, Mayfair, and the heavily Catholic parts of Somerton will be Boyle's strenghts.  Elsewhere not so much.

[TeePee4Prez]

Definitely don't want to take away from Brendan Boyle here especially on Sandusky, gun control and labor which are areas where he's awesome on.  I know he has a ton of future potential, but let's just say this was not the right office for him nor Schwartz running for Gov. 

[Keystone Phil]

And it should be noted that Leach will do well in certain areas of the NE. Losing areas like mine to PA 1 really hurts Boyle.

Losing the river Wards to Brady hurts Boyle BADLY hence my prediction.  We'd be talking a much closer race, possibly a 50-50 split with Holmesburg, Tacony, Bridesburg, and Port Richmond in the district.  Fox Chase, Mayfair, and the heavily Catholic parts of Somerton will be Boyle's strenghts.  Elsewhere not so much.

Brendan would also do well in Torresdale (my area). Not nearly as blue collar as the other neighborhoods you mentioned but that actually might have suited him better. Boyle has a lot of support from labor but his style isn't that of a Bob Brady. A lot of areas in Torresdale are like Somerton.

In other news, per his Twitter, long time State Representative Mark Cohen said he's considering a run. He was briefly a candidate in 2004 trying to run a Howard Dean-esque campaign (right down to the logo design) despite being very well established. This would make things even more complicated for Boyle but Cohen would also run best in Leach areas so who knows.

[TeePee4Prez]

Cohen- Another guy I like personally.  Leach still strikes me better for some reason. Cohen would definitely help Boyle if he ran in that Boyle might only need to eke out 30% and win.  Leach would definitely come on top of the progressives, but a sharp vote split is likely. Are we looking at 2000 PA Senate Race v 2.0 here? 

Million dollar question is who would be GOP nominee be?

Tauben
       berger!

[Keystone Phil]

Million dollar question is who would be GOP nominee be?

Tauben
       berger!

No, he won't run for that again. 

[Keystone Phil]

Saidel has dropped out, specifically citing Margolies' interest in running.

[Keystone Phil]

In a sign of Philly Dems rallying around their lone candidate as Saidel drops out, Dem Chairman/Congressman Bob Brady has endorsed Boyle.

[krazen1211]

Bob Brady dropped the hammer.

[Keystone Phil]

State Representative Mark Cohen is now in so Boyle isn't the only Philly candidate. He's going to be a real wildcard as his brand is more Montco (hurting Leach, Arkoosh and maybe Margolies) but he's been a State Representative in the NE since 1974 and has a base.

The city machine and labor will be with Boyle but Cohen will peel some of that away.

[TeePee4Prez]

State Representative Mark Cohen is now in so Boyle isn't the only Philly candidate. He's going to be a real wildcard as his brand is more Montco (hurting Leach, Arkoosh and maybe Margolies) but he's been a State Representative in the NE since 1974 and has a base.

The city machine and labor will be with Boyle but Cohen will peel some of that away.

This is gonna be a sh**t show.  I just know it.  Then again the seat is now soooo Democratic the primary will determine the winner.  You will basically need a William Jefferson hiding money in the freezer for the GOP to take this seat.  That's probably why so many Dems feel emboldened to run.

[Keystone Phil]

It's a very comfortable Democratic seat, no doubt, but I wouldn't say that it takes a Jefferson type scandal for the GOP to win it. That's what it took to win one of the most Democratic seats in the nation. I think it would require a little less for the 13th to flip.

[Keystone Phil]

Former Congresswoman and Clinton in law Marjorie Margolies is officially in. Should be a real battle.

[TeePee4Prez]

Former Congresswoman and Clinton in law Marjorie Margolies is officially in. Should be a real battle.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

Gotta say this is great news for Brendan Boyle.  Boyle is my 2nd choice in this behind Daylin Leach as of now.  MM would be my LAST choice.  She needs to go away.  I don't think MM will do all that great, BUT she will get enough a percentage to possibly make the eventual winner win with far less than 50%.  If I have to say this about Brendan Boyle, he has possibly the highest floor % in the field due to his strong union support and neighborhood ties.  Some of his views however cause a low ceiling % for him.  Him vs. say Leach alone, he gets clobbered.  A messy primary, like the 2000 US Senate race in PA, could bode well for him.  

I HOPE primary voters will get turned off by the whole Bob Brady/SOCon machine backing (Boyle)vs. Bill Clinton (Margolies) backing to send Leach to Congress.  Voters sent Nutter to the mayor's office despite Brady being on the ballot so one can hope!

[Mr.Phips]

It's a very comfortable Democratic seat, no doubt, but I wouldn't say that it takes a Jefferson type scandal for the GOP to win it. That's what it took to win one of the most Democratic seats in the nation. I think it would require a little less for the 13th to flip.

It probably would require a Jefferson type scandal for Republicans to win here.  This is a seat that even Dan Onorato won by double digits in 2010.

[Keystone Phil]

It's a very comfortable Democratic seat, no doubt, but I wouldn't say that it takes a Jefferson type scandal for the GOP to win it. That's what it took to win one of the most Democratic seats in the nation. I think it would require a little less for the 13th to flip.

It probably would require a Jefferson type scandal for Republicans to win here.  This is a seat that even Dan Onorato won by double digits in 2010.

...that isn't really shocking. Onorato wasn't some horrific candidate and he wasn't clobbered statewide.

[TeePee4Prez]

It's a very comfortable Democratic seat, no doubt, but I wouldn't say that it takes a Jefferson type scandal for the GOP to win it. That's what it took to win one of the most Democratic seats in the nation. I think it would require a little less for the 13th to flip.

It probably would require a Jefferson type scandal for Republicans to win here.  This is a seat that even Dan Onorato won by double digits in 2010.

...that isn't really shocking. Onorato wasn't some horrific candidate and he wasn't clobbered statewide.

If I could compare PA-13 to any other district I'd say NY-9 but slightly more Democratic.  It would take a Weiner-like scandal to make it close.

[Keystone Phil]

It's a very comfortable Democratic seat, no doubt, but I wouldn't say that it takes a Jefferson type scandal for the GOP to win it. That's what it took to win one of the most Democratic seats in the nation. I think it would require a little less for the 13th to flip.

It probably would require a Jefferson type scandal for Republicans to win here.  This is a seat that even Dan Onorato won by double digits in 2010.

...that isn't really shocking. Onorato wasn't some horrific candidate and he wasn't clobbered statewide.

If I could compare PA-13 to any other district I'd say NY-9 but slightly more Democratic.  It would take a Weiner-like scandal to make it close.

I think that's a lot more fair.

[Keystone Phil]

Remember how I said Leach would be another Alan Grayson in Congress?

Leach also scored an endorsement for another well-known progressive, Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL).

http://www.politicspa.com/q2-a-closer-look-at-pa-13-reports/49564/

Margolies had a surprisingly weak quarter as she finished at the bottom of the four person field. It has led to rumblings about just how much her in-laws will be doing for her even though prominent Clintonistas still contributed to her. Despite being the political outsider (compared to Margolies, Boyle and Leach), Arkoosh had the strongest showing and is clearly ready to play ball.

Stay tuned. This one is going to be fun.

[TeePee4Prez]

Remember how I said Leach would be another Alan Grayson in Congress?

Leach also scored an endorsement for another well-known progressive, Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL).

http://www.politicspa.com/q2-a-closer-look-at-pa-13-reports/49564/

Margolies had a surprisingly weak quarter as she finished at the bottom of the four person field. It has led to rumblings about just how much her in-laws will be doing for her even though prominent Clintonistas still contributed to her. Despite being the political outsider (compared to Margolies, Boyle and Leach), Arkoosh had the strongest showing and is clearly ready to play ball.

Stay tuned. This one is going to be fun.

I think this only helps Boyle out.  Remember I said he has the lowest ceiling, but the highest floor.  While Boyle will struggle mightily in Montgomery Co., he can consolidate his NE Philly/Union GOTV support and have the rest of them in a bloodbath.  He may come out on top with winning less than 35% of the vote.