Argentina Legislative Elections, November 14

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The early projections in CABA have Vidal holding reasonably well around 48%, Santoro below expectations in the low 20s while Milei and Bregman both overperformed at around 20% and 8% respectively.

[Edu]

argentina.txt

lol

Turnout has increased significantly from the Paso, the turnout at 14:00 went from 36% to 44%

15:00 update, 51% turnout (43.5% on the Paso)

Apparently it ended up like 71% or 72% up from about 67% in the PASO. Still, it was one of the lowest turnouts for an election since 1983 (and maybe the worst? I don't know).

Kristina already said that she wasn't going to go to the Frente de Todos headquarters because she needs to rest after her surgery last week. Maybe she shouldn't have gone to the final campaign act a few days ago

Yesterday, I forgot like an idiot to buy my beers or wine, so I'm waiting the 1 hour and 10 minutes left before I can legally buy again. Just in time for the results!

[Edu]

I read that 46% of the results are already counted. guess we'll basically know almost every winner in the next 45 minutes or so

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

I read that 46% of the results are already counted. guess we'll basically know almost every winner in the next 45 minutes or so

Yeah, they're counted the results quite fast

First official results

Buenos Aires Province, 76.55% of votes counted
  -Juntos: 40.05% (16 seats)
  -Todos: 38.41%(15)
  -Avanza Libertad: 7.48% (2)
  -FIT: 6.75% (2)
  -Vamos: 4.36% (0)
A relatively strong performance for Todos in the largest province, when compared to the Paso, even if it's a very weak election for them overall

Buenos Aires City, 92.47% counted
  -Juntos: 47.03% (7)
  -Todos: 24.6%(3)
  -La Libertad Avanza: 17.07% (2)
  -FIT: 7.75% (1)

Córdoba, 94.79% counted
  -Juntos: 54.06% (6)
  - Hacemos por Córdoba 25% (2)
  -Todos: 10.51 %(1)

Santa Fe, 77.5% counted
  -Juntos: D: 40.41% (5), S: 40.49% (2)
  -Todos: D: 31.17%(3), S: 32.04% (1)
  -F.A. Progresista: 12.07% (1), S: 12.36%

Mendoza, 90.31% counted
  -Cambia Mendoza: 49.84% (3)
  -Todos: 25.07% (2)
  -P Verde: 9.10% (0)

[jman123]

Looks like JxC is making some gains tonight

[Edu]

Looks like JxC is making some gains tonight

Doing better in some places, doing worse in others as far as I can see.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Looks like JxC is making some gains tonight

I'm not sure about the popular vote but the seats are probably going to end with them winning slightly fewer than the PASO. FdT improved slightly in PBA, FIT flipped the 2nd seat in Jujuy and a few other marginal seats are close.

Best guess would be going from 120 to 118

[Edu]

Tierra del Fuego, are you ok?

[Edu]

Also, every province is more than 80% reporting, most are 90%+ reporting and Formosa is still at 30%. Gift to Paraguay, please.

Are they still using the "Ley de lemas" there?

[Edu]

Tucumán hilariously close, but not enough for the overtaking.

Jorge "Jesus Christ" Capitanich really turned those sinners into voters!

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

From La Nación's projection

In the chamber of deputies:
FdT: 118
JxC:117
Left front: 4 (good result for them)
Espert and Milei's lists: 4 (really good result for them)
Provincial parties (MPN, JSRN, FRCM, HpC, PS) and independents: 14

In the senate:
FdT: 35
JxC: 34
Provincial parties (JSRN, FRCM and HpC): 3

[kaoras]

Tierra del Fuego, are you ok?

Penguins seem very sensitive to clientelism. You can give it to us though (maybe keep all the beaches so we don't break that absurd treaty that Chile can't have coast in the Atlantic nor Argentina in the Pacific)

[Edu]

Will the Rodriguez Saa feudal mafia be able to steal the province again or will they fail? Stay tuned to know!

San Juan is really close, whoever ends of on top will get 2 out of the 3 deputies. JxC not going to make it I believe.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Seems like the plan "just throw a ton of money into welfare so that poor people will feel any motivation to come out and vote for us" didn't give the government a win in Buenos Aires, but it allowed them to close the gap quite a bit.

[Edu]

5000 vote diference in San Juan, 8000 vote difference in Chaco and Salta, less than 20000 vote difference in Tucuman. So close, yet so far away.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I was expecting the mysterious box of late arriving overwhelmingly Peronist ballots falling off the back of a truck would happen in La Pampa but instead the award for "most suspicious election" goes to Formosa!

All in all for how unexpected the PASO was this is basically right in line with expectations: Juntos mostly held on and in a few places nearly flipped close seats but with how many marginal seats they had it only took a small recovery in a few provinces for Todos to win some back.

The amount of spending the government had to do for even marginal clawbacks is clearly unsustainable so I wouldn't be surprised if officials start jumping ship soon.

In other news, some of the interesting third party results include:

* In Jujuy FIT not only won a seat but beat out FdT for second. However because of wacky D'Hondt distribution this actually helped the government by taking a seat away from Juntos.

* In Tucuman the daughter of former governor/military dictator (not sure the official title) Antonio Dominigo Bussi won 11%, which is a lot considering how Tucuman was among the closest provinces this election

* In La Rioja UCeDe somehow won almost 10%. Pretty weird that such a feudal province (JxC only won 28%) would have a liberal surge but I won't question it

[Mike88]

The results seem to be very similar with the primaries in September. Also, is it true that the "Peronists" have lost the majority in the Senate for the first time in democracy? I heard it on a live feed and I was surprised.

[Edu]

I'm not sure about the popular vote but the seats are probably going to end with them winning slightly fewer than the PASO. FdT improved slightly in PBA, FIT flipped the 2nd seat in Jujuy and a few other marginal seats are close.

Best guess would be going from 120 to 118

Not sure how much it can change, but the PASO projections from La Nación two month ago was FdT 117 and JxC 116. Their projection right now is FdT 118 and JxC 117. So, uh, basically the same lol

[Edu]

I was expecting the mysterious box of late arriving overwhelmingly Peronist ballots falling off the back of a truck would happen in La Pampa but instead the award for "most suspicious election" goes to Formosa!

Formosa has always been it's special kind oh sh*thole

The amount of spending the government had to do for even marginal clawbacks is clearly unsustainable so I wouldn't be surprised if officials start jumping ship soon.

You really have to be here to just experience how much money they spent and how many populist government actions they took over the last couple of months. They still lost. Hell, even in the Province of Buenos Aires, the results will most certainly be the same as the PASO (16 deputies for JxC and 15 for FdT, unless I'm mistaken) regardless of how much they improved.

In Jujuy FIT not only won a seat but beat out FdT for second. However because of wacky D'Hondt distribution this actually helped the government by taking a seat away from Juntos.

Looking at updated results, FdT overtook them, just barely, like 1000 votes

In Tucuman the daughter of former governor/military dictator (not sure the official title) Antonio Dominigo Bussi won 11%, which is a lot considering how Tucuman was among the closest provinces this election

Actually Josefina Bussi is the grandaughter of the military governor. Her father is Ricardo Bussi, who is also running this year, but for the senate. Her father is running slightly ahead of her

In La Rioja UCeDe somehow won almost 10%. Pretty weird that such a feudal province (JxC only won 28%) would have a liberal surge but I won't question it

La Rioja has been weird these past few years. Peronist stronghold, then in 2013, the opposition did great and in 2015 Macri almost won it and Cambienos won the legislative elections. They also won the deputies and the senate elections in 2017. Now they are fighting for 2nd place with Formosa as the most kirchnerist province.

[Edu]

Nationally it seems that both JxC and FdT improved about 2.5%. FdT closer to 3% and JxC closer to 2%.

FIT barely improved but still, good result from them.


Province of Buenos Aires is getting closer because of the metro area. most likely not enough for the FdT to change the situation.

[PSOL]

Hopefully FIT takes the lead in Jujuy, but otherwise this has been a fantastic electoral streak for them since the abortion ruling.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Turns out the projection wasn't as set as they thought. Espert apparently set to take a third seat off JxC, bringing the provincial tally to 15-15-3-2 and boosting the liberals to 5 seats nationally.

What I really don't get is how Randazzo doesn't win a seat. If just under 40% gets the two major parties 15 seats each then how is 4.4% not enough for one seat? Is he expected to be underrepresented in the late votes?

[Edu]

Turns out the projection wasn't as set as they thought. Espert apparently set to take a third seat off JxC, bringing the provincial tally to 15-15-3-2 and boosting the liberals to 5 seats nationally.

What I really don't get is how Randazzo doesn't win a seat. If just under 40% gets the two major parties 15 seats each then how is 4.4% not enough for one seat? Is he expected to be underrepresented in the late votes?

I just did a quick calculation (could be worng) using some D'hondt thing online and I also got that Randazzo should be getting a seat. I have no idea honestly.

[Edu]

Reporting is slowing down at almost 98% nationally and most results are already set in stone. At least in my case, I think I'm donde here for today. Those beers aren't going to drink themselves!

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Hopefully FIT takes the lead in Jujuy, but otherwise this has been a fantastic electoral streak for them since the abortion ruling.

They have a decent, if small, chance of getting tbe second place over Todos, but they're definitely not on the (non-existent) race for the first place
97.67% counted
Cambia Jujuy (JxC): 49.01% (1)
Todos: 25.77% (1)
FIT-U: 25.21% (1)

Still, definitely a great election for the Left in Jujuy