Argentina Legislative Elections, November 14

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Just posting a few poll results from a Clarín (the country's largest newspaper and very JxC leaning) article that was posted a few days ago


PASO results: JxC: 39.8% - TODOS: 35.4% - FIT-U: 5.3% - Avz.Libertad: 5.1% Vamos: 3.9% - +Valores: 1.6%
The threshold is usually between 3.5 and 4.5%, FIT and AL would get 2 seats each with the PASO results, while Randazzo wouldn't get into Congress



PASO: JxC: 48.8% - Todos: 25.1% - Libertad Avz.: 13.9% - FIT-U: 6.3% - AyL: 2.7%
Practical threshold around 6-7%, so Bregman's (FIT) seat is at risk, which is pretty clear on some of their more desperate ads

[Edu]

There was a protest today against crime (specifically for a murder of a store owner) in the province of Buenos Aires and the government threw tear gas at the people.

And the government has gone full 1000% clientelism in the past month and a half, basically destroying whatever money the governmet has left, to try and win the elections. The worst thing is that despite polls and common sense I'm still afraid they might win some votes or even win the election outright, not likely but before every election, the feeling of dread intensifies.

The future of the country looks pretty bleak. Ugh, I hate these people so much

[Edu]

If someone wants to know the results of the PASO in any of the polling places, here's this nice thing. You can also see how your actual polling station did. Not sure if there is a paywall or something but you can just enter incognito.

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/antes-de-volver-a-las-urnas-mira-los-resultados-de-las-paso-en-la-escuela-donde-votaste-nid09112021/


The one in which I...uh...didn't vote but plan to this sunday gave Juntos por el Cambio almost a 70%, followed by Millei with 13% and the kirchnerists with 12%

[Edu]

You can even see the resuls of the 6 polling places in Antarctica. I might meddle around with it later and see if there is anything funny anywhere in the country lol

[kaoras]

You can even see the resuls of the 6 polling places in Antarctica. I might meddle around with it later and see if there is anything funny anywhere in the country lol

Base Belgrando 2 in Antártica gave 20% to Partido Obrero (5 votes), lmao. In Chile, in 2013 the communist also received 2 votes from Antártica, but that was 5%. Overall Antártica Argentina seems less right-wing than Antártica Chilena. I'm also surprised at how many polling places you have down there, we just have one in King George Island.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

If someone wants to know the results of the PASO in any of the polling places, here's this nice thing. You can also see how your actual polling station did. Not sure if there is a paywall or something but you can just enter incognito.

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/antes-de-volver-a-las-urnas-mira-los-resultados-de-las-paso-en-la-escuela-donde-votaste-nid09112021/


The one in which I...uh...didn't vote but plan to this sunday gave Juntos por el Cambio almost a 70%, followed by Millei with 13% and the kirchnerists with 12%

Anyway, here's my even more unrepresentative polling station's results:
Juntos: 75%
La Libertad Avanza (Milei): 14.5%
Todos: 6.5%
FIT-U: 1.8%

Unsurprisingly, many of Macri's best results in the whole country came for this part of my neighborhood, including my old polling place which was likely among his top 10 results

[Estrella]

This sounds weird, but I just spent like three hours browsing that map. I couldn't help it, I love going through these micro-level results in places I've never heard of. Random things:

Hipólito Yrigoyen Primary School, Río Gallegos: Cambia Santa Cruz 57%, Frente de Todos 27%. Pablo VI Primary School, Río Gallegos: Cambia Santa Cruz 56%, Frente de Todos 20%. Why these two polling stations? They're both about five minutes' walk from the Néstor Kirchner Mausoleum.

Veintiocho de Noviembre: SER 40%, Todos 35%. Río Turbio: SER 44%, Todos 32%. Paso Dorotea: SER 45%, Todos 35%. Perón will be turning in his grave when he finds out his official successors can't even get all coal miners - the only coal miners in Argentina! - to vote for them.

FIT is fairly strong in Jujuy and Salta, but I have no idea why. In the former, they're very strong in some places. 77 Bernardino Rivadavia, Humahuaca: FIT 38%. 442 Maestro Ricardo Vilca, Humahuaca: FIT 37%. 301 Australia, Ocumazo: FIT 43%. What.

Escuela Secundaria 24: Todos 70%, Juntos 13%. In Caballito, right in the middle of Buenos Aires city, surrounded by 40-60% Juntos territory. Wasn't sure what's going on here. The area looks pretty nice, judging by Streetview. Thought I'd check out the telegrama (the official vote tally sheet), just in case it's actually a mistake... and it is: the header says distrito Buenos Aires, sección electoral Avellaneda. Which explains it, but also wtf.

Escuela Provincial 122, Trelew: Juntos 48%, Todos 17%, Chubut Somos Todos 14%, FIT 10%. It's two blocks from Ysgol yr Hendre, and closest I can get to a Welsh-language school. There are several bilingual Spanish-Welsh schools, but they're all private (and hence don't get polling stations, or so I assume) or too small. I don't think the results would've been any different from others, but it'd've been cool to see how an ysgol Gymraeg votes

EPEP 146, Patiño, Paraguay Formosa: Estamos con Vos 100% (1 vote).

There is exactly one JxC polling station in the province of Santiago del Estero outside the capital city, and it gave 95% to Juntos - yes, 95%, except... it didn't. I checked the telegrama out of curiosity, and it turns out that 1) it's actually right over the border in Catamarca 2) it's about 50-50 Juntos-Todos 3) the presidente de mesa, some guy called Raul Herrera, was too lazy to fill out like half of the form, including the total number of votes, which is probably where the fxckup comes from. What were you doing, Raul? ಠ_ಠ

[Conservatopia]

You can even see the resuls of the 6 polling places in Antarctica. I might meddle around with it later and see if there is anything funny anywhere in the country lol

Base Belgrando 2 in Antártica gave 20% to Partido Obrero (5 votes), lmao. In Chile, in 2013 the communist also received 2 votes from Antártica, but that was 5%. Overall Antártica Argentina seems less right-wing than Antártica Chilena. I'm also surprised at how many polling places you have down there, we just have one in King George Island.

What makes the penguins so leftwing?

[kaoras]

You can even see the resuls of the 6 polling places in Antarctica. I might meddle around with it later and see if there is anything funny anywhere in the country lol

Base Belgrando 2 in Antártica gave 20% to Partido Obrero (5 votes), lmao. In Chile, in 2013 the communist also received 2 votes from Antártica, but that was 5%. Overall Antártica Argentina seems less right-wing than Antártica Chilena. I'm also surprised at how many polling places you have down there, we just have one in King George Island.

What makes the penguins so leftwing?

If I had to guess, scientific researchers with PhDs. Antarctic bases are generally right wing due to military presence, but it seems that the proportion of scientists is higher in Argentinean bases

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

I'm definitely not the best person to talk about Jujuy's politics as I've never understood them all that well

From what I can gather, FIT's results in Jujuy are largely vorrelated with the kirchnerista's pretty bad, to outright attrocious, results in the province in recent years, which began around 2015 during the last year of the Fellner and were largely correlated with the Milagro Sala debacle

Sala had an extremely strong relation with the provincial PJ and held a very firm control over parts of the party and the province, in her rooe as some sort of militant activist who was strongly involved in housing initiatives and general clientelistic and welfare activities through her Tupac Amaru Organization

Sala's power collapsed as Fellner was replaced as governor by the anti-kirchnerista Gerardo Morales, amd many of her scandals, involving corruption, protecting an attempted murderer, threats and acts of violence against journalists, alleged connections to drug trafficking, and strongs authoritarian tendencies, came to light or got renewed attention. This, combined with Fellner's unpopularity, the open intra-PJ conflicts and lack of particularly good candidates made the PJ lose a lot of good will in Jujuy, and for national eclections I guess the FIT was seen as the next best thing for many Anti-Morales voters

Also and idk why, since 2015 the FIT hasn't been successful getting even remotely consistent in Jujuy, performing well only on midterm elections going from 16-18% in the 2017 elections to  2-4% in 2019 and then 23% on the 2021 national paso, but only 7.5% on the provincial elections

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Aside from population density, these kind of dot maps are good at showing socieconomical differences. Compare it to this quality of life map and you can see how poorer areas vote for the FdT and wealthier areas for JxC (this isn't always the case of course, but you get the idea).

It is specially noticeable in urban areas:

Great Buenos Aires


Rosario


San Miguel de Tucumán


San Juan


Córdoba


Córdoba is very antikirchnerist, so it's mostly yellow dots and no blue ones , but you can see in the poorer areas that the peronist Hacemos por Córdoba won (though they're also antikirchnerists)

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Veintiocho de Noviembre: SER 40%, Todos 35%. Río Turbio: SER 44%, Todos 32%. Paso Dorotea: SER 45%, Todos 35%. Perón will be turning in his grave when he finds out his official successors can't even get all coal miners - the only coal miners in Argentina! - to vote for them.

I looked at the 2019 map (which might also interest you), and there doesn't seem to have been any significant change in the peronist vote share, it's just that this time around there were two lists vying for that electorate, the official one as you say and the dissident one from Claudio Vidal's SER. And from what i understand Vidal is only at odds with the local PJ, he still supports the national government.
Also i'm sure Perón would be much more pissed at the fact that the left wing of the PJ (which he once referred to as "marxists and fagg*ts") is now in charge of his movement.
 

Escuela Secundaria 24: Todos 70%, Juntos 13%. In Caballito, right in the middle of Buenos Aires city, surrounded by 40-60% Juntos territory. Wasn't sure what's going on here. The area looks pretty nice, judging by Streetview. Thought I'd check out the telegrama (the official vote tally sheet), just in case it's actually a mistake... and it is: the header says distrito Buenos Aires, sección electoral Avellaneda. Which explains it, but also wtf.

Yeah, every blue dot not located in the south of the city (save from the one in Villa 31) seems to be a mistake from the mapmakers.

Escuela Provincial 122, Trelew: Juntos 48%, Todos 17%, Chubut Somos Todos 14%, FIT 10%. It's two blocks from Ysgol yr Hendre, and closest I can get to a Welsh-language school. There are several bilingual Spanish-Welsh schools, but they're all private (and hence don't get polling stations, or so I assume) or too small. I don't think the results would've been any different from others, but it'd've been cool to see how an ysgol Gymraeg votes

At least here in CABA private schools are used as polling stations, maybe smaller towns that  require less stations only use public schools, or it just varies by jurisdiction, i don't know. In any case, given how close the two schools are, the people assigned to vote at EP 122 would probably be the same ones assigned at Ysgol yr Hendre if it were used for voting, so results would likely be the same.

There is exactly one JxC polling station in the province of Santiago del Estero outside the capital city, and it gave 95% to Juntos - yes, 95%, except... it didn't. I checked the telegrama out of curiosity, and it turns out that 1) it's actually right over the border in Catamarca 2) it's about 50-50 Juntos-Todos 3) the presidente de mesa, some guy called Raul Herrera, was too lazy to fill out like half of the form, including the total number of votes, which is probably where the fxckup comes from. What were you doing, Raul? ಠ_ಠ

There are (that i could find) three more yellow dots outside Santiago capital: one across the river in La Banda (which is also a mistake, that polling station is from Chaco), one in Bandera and one in Selva. This two towns are located in the south eastern corner of the province, an area where JxC does pretty decently (Macri actually won here in 2015), i assume due to being richer and more economically connected to the rural areas of neighbouring Santa Fe.

[Estrella]

Veintiocho de Noviembre: SER 40%, Todos 35%. Río Turbio: SER 44%, Todos 32%. Paso Dorotea: SER 45%, Todos 35%. Perón will be turning in his grave when he finds out his official successors can't even get all coal miners - the only coal miners in Argentina! - to vote for them.

I looked at the 2019 map (which might also interest you), and there doesn't seem to have been any significant change in the peronist vote share, it's just that this time around there were two lists vying for that electorate, the official one as you say and the dissident one from Claudio Vidal's SER. And from what i understand Vidal is only at odds with the local PJ, he still supports the national government.
Also i'm sure Perón would be much more pissed at the fact that the left wing of the PJ (which he once referred to as "marxists and fagg*ts") is now in charge of his movement.

Thanks! Very interesting.

[Edu]

Yep, the map has several errors with those dots unfortunately, but who can blame them? there are more than 15.000 dots lol

Sala's power collapsed as Fellner was replaced as governor by the anti-kirchnerista Gerardo Morales, amd many of her scandals, involving corruption, protecting an attempted murderer, threats and acts of violence against journalists, alleged connections to drug trafficking, and strongs authoritarian tendencies, came to light or got renewed attention. This, combined with Fellner's unpopularity, the open intra-PJ conflicts and lack of particularly good candidates made the PJ lose a lot of good will in Jujuy, and for national eclections I guess the FIT was seen as the next best thing for many Anti-Morales voters

My guess would be something like that. An extremely corrupt province with Milagro Sala being the head of a sort of "parallel state", all of which sort of came tumbling down made the people distrust the kirchnerists a lot more than other provinces. I wish to think that Formosa is experiencing/will experience something similar but I think I'm too optimistic.

Someone told me, not sure how much to put into it, but Córdoba became so antikirchnerists in 2013 after the police strikes that affected first the province and then almost the entire country. Those strikes basically left entire provinces in a state of anarchy where neighbours had to set up barricades and stuff to block streets and houses from criminals that were ransacking like viking raiders. Córdoba was the place where  the national conflict started so I'm guessing they were the ones that ended up being angrier. But again, that's what someone told me.

Also and idk why, since 2015 the FIT hasn't been successful getting even remotely consistent in Jujuy, performing well only on midterm elections going from 16-18% in the 2017 elections to  2-4% in 2019 and then 23% on the 2021 national paso, but only 7.5% on the provincial elections

Not sure what happened in 2019. In all of those elections, the FIT ran the same candidate, some guy named Alejandro Vilca, that from what I can see is also a part of a the indigenous Coya community, whihc may explain why he does so well in places like Humahuaca and Jujuy in general.

Also i'm sure Perón would be much more pissed at the fact that the left wing of the PJ (which he once referred to as "marxists and fagg*ts") is now in charge of his movement.

lol yeah, Perón would be livid that the "useful idiots" he promoted during his exile so he could create chaos to laid the foundations of his return to the country, and whom he promptly "disowned" once he got into power, have for the past 2 decades taken over a big chunk of the party apparatus.

[Edu]

lol, there is a school in Tupungato, Mendoza where the FIT won (Escuela Domingo Lucas Bombal). Only 4 of those votes were valid and while Frente de Todos and Compromiso Federal won 1 vote each, the winner was the FIT that had 2 votes. Hilariously it was because one guy voted for one of the PASO lists while another guy voted for the other. I like to imagine that these 2 persons know each other and have some sort of feud reminiscent of the Life of Brian scene of the Judean's People Front and the Popular Front of Judea


Interestingly in the polling place that is nearest my house (which is not the one I'm supposed to vote in), the results were JUntos por el Cambio just 48% and second was kirchnerists with 22%. The FIT didn't end up third but they did pretty well with almost 8%. Funny the disparity in just a couple of blocks.

The polling place I usually went at my last house in south Palermo gave Juntos por el Cambio 42%, then comes the kirchnerists at 29% and then milei at 12%. Probably one of the most kirchnerist friendly polling places in Palermo.

EPEP 146, Patiño, Paraguay Formosa: Estamos con Vos 100% (1 vote).

lmao, 2 people to control the ballots and run the election smoothly, only 1 voter. That must have been a really exciting day at the polling place. That town has like 600 inhabitants, what the hell? did just one guy bothered to vote?

[Edu]

Not really useful but whatever I have free time


Results in the northernmost populated town: El Angosto, Jujuy. Escuela N°369 (Kirchnerists 56%, Juntos por el Cambio 38%, FIT 6%)

In the southernmost town (not counting antactica and whatnot): Puerto Almanza, Tierra del Fuego. Uh, no polling places there, so I guess I just have to use the southernmost in Ushuaia which is the Colegio Nacional Ushuaia (Juntos por el Cambio 42%, kirchnerists 26%, Somos Fueguinos 22%, other bullcrap around 10%)

Easternmost town: Bernardo De Irigoyen, Misiones. Not sure which polling place is the easternmost one but I'm going with Escuela N°569 (Juntos por el Cambio 33%, Kirchnerists 28.3%, Frente de la Concordia which is the actual governing party there 28.23%)

Westernmost town: El Chaltén, Santa Cruz. Escuela Primaria N°59 (Juntos por el Cambio 32%, Kirchnerists 30%, SER 22%, FIT 14%)

[jman123]

I am having a feeling Juntos por el cambio will be having a good day on Sunday. Do you think they will get a majority in diputados and the Senado?

[kaoras]

Someone told me, not sure how much to put into it, but Córdoba became so antikirchnerists in 2013 after the police strikes that affected first the province and then almost the entire country. Those strikes basically left entire provinces in a state of anarchy where neighbours had to set up barricades and stuff to block streets and houses from criminals that were ransacking like viking raiders. Córdoba was the place where  the national conflict started so I'm guessing they were the ones that ended up being angrier. But again, that's what someone told me.

I have also heard this but Córdoba antikirchnerism predates 2013. In 2007 Cristina got 23% there, half of her nationwide share, and she also underperformed badly in 2011. Though it does seem it got worse after 2013. Before that, Córdoba was slightly less anti-k than CABA, after that is clearly the most anti-k territory.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

EPEP 146, Patiño, Paraguay Formosa: Estamos con Vos 100% (1 vote).

lmao, 2 people to control the ballots and run the election smoothly, only 1 voter. That must have been a really exciting day at the polling place. That town has like 600 inhabitants, what the hell? did just one guy bothered to vote?

There are 2 polling sites that share the same name according to the LN map, and the other one has 476 votes, I'm not really sure what happened with the one with only 1 vote, but I doubt the fiscales and polling workers stayed at this station for very long, it was likely pre-established as some sort of Cuarto oscuro accesible (accesible voting booth) or a special station for the very few people who couldn't go to the regular polling station due to living far away from it

[Edu]

There are 2 polling sites that share the same name according to the LN map, so I'm pretty sure that the one with only 1 vote is actually the Cuarto Oscuro Accesible (accesible voting booth, for people with disabilities or the elderly, unlike the regular voting booths and "mesas" you choose to go to one of this instead of the one you're assigned to) from the "larger school" and it's been reported incorrectly as being a completely different polling station

Haha, you might be right, in fact if you zoom at that dot you can see that there is a blue dot under the grey dot and then it just fuses itself in a weird color.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

I am having a feeling Juntos por el cambio will be having a good day on Sunday. Do you think they will get a majority in diputados and the Senado?

Based on september's results, no and no. An optimistic but also realistic target for JxC would be 120 seats, which would make them the largest bloc in chamber, not a majority (they'd need 129 for that), but enough to obstruct/pressure the ruling coalition.

In the senate they couldn't get a majority even if they won all eight provinces, whch isn't happening anyway. Best case scenario JxC and their senate allies reach 34 seats, only one fewer than the FdT.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

On the one hand, Todos has run a pretty pathetic campaign and most of their major figures are acting less like they have a cunning comeback plan and more like they're getting ready to flee the sinking ship. CFK of all people has been reduced to trying to pass as a capitalist like it's 1991. Massa looks like he might go back to being Massa.

But then they are engaging in the most blatant kinds of electoral bribery, right up to "send us a picture of your vote and we'll send you 10,000 pesos". If anything having to go so far seems like a sign that they're weaker than ever, though. Before if they gave someone a fridge or polentas they'd actually get their vote whereas these days people will take their free stuff and vote against the government.

JxC also hasn't exactly run a stellar campaign either of course. At Vidal's penultimate campaign event the CC-ARI and UCR militants identified the real enemy: Patricia Bullrich, who was giving a speech endorsing Vidal, for the crime of being too friendly to Milei.

https://twitter.com/Alerta140/status/1458604987353817088

The latter laughed merrily until she realized that it's 2021, not 2024

https://twitter.com/blasullua/status/1458898331514683399

One weird thing about the results from the PASO that isn't obvious if you don't go province by province with a D'Hondt calculator is that there actually isn't that much room for JxC seat gains with anything short of an overwhelming shift of the vote in their favour. The marginal deputy seats in the smaller provinces mostly went their way (with the exception of San Juan) so there's little room for growth there. In the realistic best case scenario even in the big provinces they'd be limited to 2 in PBA and 1 each in Entre Ríos, Santa Fe, Córdoba and Mendoza. Add a few seats that Juntos can't win going third way like the FdT seat in Jujuy flipping to FIT and their third seat in CABA being lost to LLA or Bregman and while JxC would be just short of a majority the government would have no legislative path at all.

Whereas it would take less than a 5% uniform shift in votes towards the government to win them back 9 seats, and most of those seats are in small provinces so really it would take far less to win most of them back. They could easily come out of this with a lower share of the overall vote but more seats than the PASO as a result.

It's also worth considering that it's hard for JxC to form a majority with this election because the half of the legislature up for election is that half that was elected in 2017, a year that was (until this election anyway) an unprecedented anti-Peronist blowout, so there wasn't much room for improvement. If the PASO results repeated in these elections and then again in 2024 it would produce a Juntos supermajority of deputies and a strong majority of senators too.

[Edu]

I have no idea if the last protocols were too strict or whatever but despite an increase in turnout, my polling station was almost empty. Between leaving my home, voting and returning to home it must have taken me 15-20 minutes.

I was going to vote for my usual candidate which is communist Luis Zamora, but I want the scum kirchnerists to end up 3rd here, so I ended up voting for Javier Milei lol

in 4 hours and 17 minutes or so the polls will close. We will apparently start geting results 3 hours after that and, 3 hours after that, at midnight, we'll probably know basically all the results.

Like I said before, I don't have my hopes up and I'll probably end the night drunk regardless of what happens

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Turnout has increased significantly from the Paso, the turnout at 14:00 went from 36% to 44%

15:00 update, 51% turnout (43.5% on the Paso)

[Estrella]

I was going to vote for my usual candidate which is communist Luis Zamora, but I want the scum kirchnerists to end up 3rd here, so I ended up voting for Javier Milei lol

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