Most Vulnerable House Incumbents?

[CookieDamage]

Pretty hard to answer considering we haven't seen what redistricting looks like... I'll name one of the vulnerable house incumbents who comes to mind. There are vulnerable people in both parties.

Ron Kind (D-WI-3): His district went from like D+4/D+5 in the 2000s/early 2010s to R+4 now. Biden lost his district and Kind himself only won 51-49. I think the only thing that saves him in 2022 is if WI Republicans draw new districts with incumbent protection in mind.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'd like to see the final district maps before making any determinations.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nelson and Evers winning and beating Johnson should help him, Kind is probably the next Gov of WI in 2026

Last polls of WI 48/44% D

[VAR]

Abigail Spanberger will have a competitive race in her marginal Biden district, but she would be in serious trouble if the redistricting commission draws a fair map, i.e. draws vote-rich exurban Hanover County into her district. Basically any Republican would beat her if that happens.

[If my soul was made of stone]

With Pennsylvania losing a district, Cartwright and Wild will likely end up with a fair bit more hostile turf unless the plan explicitly screws over one to save the other (it's easier to save Wild, but they may care more about Cartwright's seniority). Lamb's district could go a number of different ways depending on how much redder turf they're willing to give to Doyle.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These districts are gonna rain blue since we are expected to retain MI, WI and PA Gubernatorial Election, I am very optimistic about a blue wave next yr, since Rs are becoming more tied to Trump as we speak

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Boss man Mike only won by 333 votes, Biden even won Simi, so that should be the most vulnerable R that's not just having their seat nuked.

[ctherainbow]

With Pennsylvania losing a district, Cartwright and Wild will likely end up with a fair bit more hostile turf unless the plan explicitly screws over one to save the other (it's easier to save Wild, but they may care more about Cartwright's seniority). Lamb's district could go a number of different ways depending on how much redder turf they're willing to give to Doyle.

You are one of the only non-PA avatars here who actually seems to be aware of the nuances of PA’s redistricting landscape.  I’ve seen so many people auto-dooming over Lamb’s district, when the commission is actually... a tiny bit left-leaning this year?  And it’s so easy to actually make Lamb’s district bluer if you just rearrange the Pittsburbs.

Anyway, thank you for not being one of those out-of-state doomers.  It’s extremely refreshing to see.

[NewYorkExpress]

Ron Kind is DOA unless he runs statewide (I think he could beat Ron Johnson easily, and he'd be favored in an open seat race too).

[CookieDamage]

On the GOP side, I think Kim, Steel, Garcia, and Malliotakis are the most vulnerable

[Schiff for Senate]

On the GOP side, I think Kim, Steel, Garcia, and Malliotakis are the most vulnerable

NY-11 is rated by the CPVI as R+7; the only reason Max Rose won in 2018 is because it was a Democratic wave year. However, I do see your point - with a trifecta in New York and the fact that Democrats haven't ceded over redistricting to an independent redistricting commission, the Democrats may strategize to gerrymander Malliotakis out of her seat; outside of Long Island, she's the only NYC area based Republican representative. However this will likely have limits since her district in Staten Island is actually disconnected from the rest of NY. Still, Democrats should give gerrymandering her out of office a try. And I think Kim, Steel and Garcia are safe despite all coming from decisively Biden districts (particularly Kim) - the CA Democrats ceded over their redistricting power over 52 districts to an independent redistricting commission, which likely won't significantly alter any of their three districts. While conventional knowledge says they should lose reelection in such pro-Biden districts (as they currently stand), I think voters in Southern CA may have habit of splitting their votes - Democrats on the northern region of the ballot and Republicans on the southern region of the ballot.

[CookieDamage]

On the GOP side, I think Kim, Steel, Garcia, and Malliotakis are the most vulnerable

NY-11 is rated by the CPVI as R+7; the only reason Max Rose won in 2018 is because it was a Democratic wave year. However, I do see your point - with a trifecta in New York and the fact that Democrats haven't ceded over redistricting to an independent redistricting commission, the Democrats may strategize to gerrymander Malliotakis out of her seat; outside of Long Island, she's the only NYC area based Republican representative. However this will likely have limits since her district in Staten Island is actually disconnected from the rest of NY. Still, Democrats should give gerrymandering her out of office a try. And I think Kim, Steel and Garcia are safe despite all coming from decisively Biden districts (particularly Kim) - the CA Democrats ceded over their redistricting power over 52 districts to an independent redistricting commission, which likely won't significantly alter any of their three districts. While conventional knowledge says they should lose reelection in such pro-Biden districts (as they currently stand), I think voters in Southern CA may have habit of splitting their votes - Democrats on the northern region of the ballot and Republicans on the southern region of the ballot.

I think NY Democrats are pretty likely to put Staten Island with much bluer parts of Brooklyn, rendering it a pretty likely DEM pickup.

As for the three Cali Republicans, even with similar districts, I can see Garcia falling as he is so far acting like a Trumpy republican in a Biden district. I think Kim is vulnerable too considering how much Biden won her district. Steel is different considering Biden only won it by one iirc.

What powers do Cali Dems have over redistricting? I know they don't draw the districts but do they have veto power or anything like that?

[Schiff for Senate]

On the GOP side, I think Kim, Steel, Garcia, and Malliotakis are the most vulnerable

NY-11 is rated by the CPVI as R+7; the only reason Max Rose won in 2018 is because it was a Democratic wave year. However, I do see your point - with a trifecta in New York and the fact that Democrats haven't ceded over redistricting to an independent redistricting commission, the Democrats may strategize to gerrymander Malliotakis out of her seat; outside of Long Island, she's the only NYC area based Republican representative. However this will likely have limits since her district in Staten Island is actually disconnected from the rest of NY. Still, Democrats should give gerrymandering her out of office a try. And I think Kim, Steel and Garcia are safe despite all coming from decisively Biden districts (particularly Kim) - the CA Democrats ceded over their redistricting power over 52 districts to an independent redistricting commission, which likely won't significantly alter any of their three districts. While conventional knowledge says they should lose reelection in such pro-Biden districts (as they currently stand), I think voters in Southern CA may have habit of splitting their votes - Democrats on the northern region of the ballot and Republicans on the southern region of the ballot.

I think NY Democrats are pretty likely to put Staten Island with much bluer parts of Brooklyn, rendering it a pretty likely DEM pickup.

As for the three Cali Republicans, even with similar districts, I can see Garcia falling as he is so far acting like a Trumpy republican in a Biden district. I think Kim is vulnerable too considering how much Biden won her district. Steel is different considering Biden only won it by one iirc.

What powers do Cali Dems have over redistricting? I know they don't draw the districts but do they have veto power or anything like that?

Probably not. I don't think they have much leverage in the process now that it's gone to an Independent Redistricting Commission: https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_California#State_process

[SnowLabrador]

Ron Kind is DOA unless he runs statewide (I think he could beat Ron Johnson easily, and he'd be favored in an open seat race too).

So Kind could "easily" beat Ron Johnson, but is DOA if he runs for re-election? How does that make sense?

[lfromnj]

Abigail Spanberger will have a competitive race in her marginal Biden district, but she would be in serious trouble if the redistricting commission draws a fair map, i.e. draws vote-rich exurban Hanover County into her district. Basically any Republican would beat her if that happens.

Yeah It was weird the court map put Hanover in VA01 and gave VA07 some rurals closer to NOVA. I did the math and switching that out would have given Brat and Freitas narrow victories.

[CookieDamage]

Ron Kind is DOA unless he runs statewide (I think he could beat Ron Johnson easily, and he'd be favored in an open seat race too).

So Kind could "easily" beat Ron Johnson, but is DOA if he runs for re-election? How does that make sense?

Because his district is more republican than Wisconsin in general? Not that hard to guess what NYE meant!

[MT Treasurer]

Ron Kind is DOA unless he runs statewide (I think he could beat Ron Johnson easily, and he'd be favored in an open seat race too).

So Kind could "easily" beat Ron Johnson, but is DOA if he runs for re-election? How does that make sense?

Because his district is more republican than Wisconsin in general? Not that hard to guess what NYE meant!

His district is precisely the part of the state where he would need to overperform Biden/a generic D rather substantially if he were to easily beat Ron Johnson. I think SnowLabrador took issue with the "easily" part (which is hard to square with the proposition that he would be "DOA" in his district) more than the idea that Kind would be more likely to beat Ron Johnson than to win reelection to his House seat. I also agree with NYE that WI statewide is rapidly becoming less hostile territory for Democrats than Kind's district even in a R-leaning midterm, especially if movements toward Democrats in WOW/Green Bay (especially the former) are more cemented than one might think. However, if those trends decelerate notably in a midterm under a Democratic president (somewhat analogous to R trends in places like ME-02/OH under Trump), he’ll need an overperformance elsewhere. Either way, while coalitions have obviously shifted internally in WI, two reliable urban bases (the more liberal of which has seen steady population growth) and favorable suburban trends provide the Democrats with just as high a floor as a decade ago.

[Chips]

Ron Kind is DOA unless he runs statewide (I think he could beat Ron Johnson easily, and he'd be favored in an open seat race too).

So Kind could "easily" beat Ron Johnson, but is DOA if he runs for re-election? How does that make sense?

Because his district is more republican than Wisconsin in general? Not that hard to guess what NYE meant!

His district is precisely the part of the state where he would need to overperform Biden/a generic D rather substantially if he were to easily beat Ron Johnson. I think SnowLabrador took issue with the "easily" part (which is hard to square with the proposition that he would be "DOA" in his district) more than the idea that Kind would be more likely to beat Ron Johnson than to win reelection to his House seat. I also agree with NYE that WI statewide is rapidly becoming less hostile territory for Democrats than Kind's district even in a R-leaning midterm, especially if movements toward Democrats in WOW/Green Bay (especially the former) are more cemented than one might think. However, if those trends decelerate notably in a midterm under a Democratic president (somewhat analogous to R trends in places like ME-02/OH under Trump), he’ll need an overperformance elsewhere. Either way, while coalitions have obviously shifted internally in WI, two reliable urban bases (the more liberal of which has seen steady population growth) and favorable suburban trends provide the Democrats with just as high a floor as a decade ago.

Unrelated note, welcome back!

[Chips]

I'd like to see the final district maps before making any determinations.

[MT Treasurer]

Unrelated note, welcome back!

Thanks, just dropping by once every few weeks like I said I might, nothing special. A more extended break was/is easier than I thought it would be, but in any case, hope you’re doing well.

[CookieDamage]

Unrelated note, welcome back!

Thanks, just dropping by once every few weeks like I said I might, nothing special. A more extended break was/is easier than I thought it would be, but in any case, hope you’re doing well.

Yeah taking breaks from Atlas is easy tbh and beneficial to mental health

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

With the Dems in control of redistricting in New York, Nicole Malliotakis is almost certainly DOA, maybe even Claudia Tenney. John Katko could also be in a ton of trouble, especially if Trump does follow through with supporting a primary challenge. Outside of New York, I think either Young Kim or Michelle Steel is going to be drawn into a significantly bluer district in California, so one of them might also be on their way out. Andy Harris could be in a lot of trouble as well if the Maryland Dems decide to go for the 8-0 route and nuke his district.

On the Democratic side, I’m not quite sure. I feel like the GOP already picked off their most winnable districts in 2020. We’ll have to see how redistricting goes, but if I head to guess, I’d have to say Jim Cooper and Peter DeFazio.

[Meatball Ron]

Under the current map, I'm quite confident Kind will lose, though it seems like there is a decent shot that his district will be shored up in a compromise with Evers, to prevent the Court drawing a map that could threaten GOP incumbents.

Cartwright would likely lose under the current map and I actually expect his district to get worse with redistricting.

Malinowski, Axne, Underwood, Spanberger, Craig, Stevens, Lee, O'Halleran, Slotkin, Wild, and Golden would be the next most vulnerable Dems under the current map. Some of these folks (e.g., Underwood and Lee, maybe Axne) are likely to get better seats; others (e.g., O'Halleran and Malinowski) are likely to get worse seats. Some, like VA-07 and MN-02, could really go in either direction or potentially even stay mostly the same. Pappas is vulnerable-ish under the current lines but things could get worse for him with redistricting.

On the GOP side, under the current map, Mike Garcia, Young Kim, and Beth Van Duyne strike me as the most vulnerable; Garcia's district will likely get even worse, while Van Duyne's gets much better, and Kim's is TBD. Steel and Salazar could also be vulnerable under either old or new lines. I think Bacon's personal popularity would save him under current lines though the district more generally is obviously liable to flip; we'll have to see what happens with redistricting here.

As for incumbents who are safe under current lines, but may be screwed under new lines, you of course have Cooper, Mrvan, Malliotakis, Yvette Herrell, Rodney Davis and/or Adam Kinzinger (who is also vulnerable in a primary), likely one other New York Republican, and an outside shot at Cleaver / Yarmuth / Davids (though less likely based on the recent Politico article). One of the two newly elected Dems in NC, and one of either McBath or Bordeaux is also likely screwed. The GOP will likely also nab one seat in the RGV, though it could be the open seat so unclear which incumbent if any will be defeated.

Cheney, Rice, and Gonzalez are also vulnerable in a primary, as are potentially Maloney and Cuellar.

I'm sure I've missed some but I think this covers the bases.

[Mr.Phips]

Under the current map, I'm quite confident Kind will lose, though it seems like there is a decent shot that his district will be shored up in a compromise with Evers, to prevent the Court drawing a map that could threaten GOP incumbents.

Cartwright would likely lose under the current map and I actually expect his district to get worse with redistricting.

Malinowski, Axne, Underwood, Spanberger, Craig, Stevens, Lee, O'Halleran, Slotkin, Wild, and Golden would be the next most vulnerable Dems under the current map. Some of these folks (e.g., Underwood and Lee, maybe Axne) are likely to get better seats; others (e.g., O'Halleran and Malinowski) are likely to get worse seats. Some, like VA-07 and MN-02, could really go in either direction or potentially even stay mostly the same. Pappas is vulnerable-ish under the current lines but things could get worse for him with redistricting.

On the GOP side, under the current map, Mike Garcia, Young Kim, and Beth Van Duyne strike me as the most vulnerable; Garcia's district will likely get even worse, while Van Duyne's gets much better, and Kim's is TBD. Steel and Salazar could also be vulnerable under either old or new lines. I think Bacon's personal popularity would save him under current lines though the district more generally is obviously liable to flip; we'll have to see what happens with redistricting here.

As for incumbents who are safe under current lines, but may be screwed under new lines, you of course have Cooper, Mrvan, Malliotakis, Yvette Herrell, Rodney Davis and/or Adam Kinzinger (who is also vulnerable in a primary), likely one other New York Republican, and an outside shot at Cleaver / Yarmuth / Davids (though less likely based on the recent Politico article). One of the two newly elected Dems in NC, and one of either McBath or Bordeaux is also likely screwed. The GOP will likely also nab one seat in the RGV, though it could be the open seat so unclear which incumbent if any will be defeated.

Cheney, Rice, and Gonzalez are also vulnerable in a primary, as are potentially Maloney and Cuellar.

I'm sure I've missed some but I think this covers the bases.

Either Slotkin or Stevens probably gets a better district in redistricting.  One of them likely picks up Pontiac.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Assuming their districts remain relatively similar, and that they run for re-election:

GOP- Garcia, Katko, Malliotakis.

Democrats- Allred, Axne, Cartwright, Craig, Fletcher, Golden, Kind, Malinowski, Schrier, Slotkin, maybe Spanberger?, Underwood, Wild.

I would have included Bustos, Lamb, and Ryan as well but they're already confirmed to not be running for re-election.