2012 MO/IN races without rape comments?

[Tekken_Guy]

How would the senate races in Missouri and Indiana have gone without the controversial rape comments from Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

It probably did move 6 points in Indiana, but it probably did not move 16 points in Missouri.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama and Biden were very popular and Romney wasn't, he was attacked as a flip flopper, Romney only became popular in the Senate because he knew McCain died and he took on the Maverick label

[Tekken_Guy]

It probably did move 6 points in Indiana, but it probably did not move 16 points in Missouri.

Well, Akin’s comments were far more publicized than Mourdock’s.

[tmthforu94]

I'm inclined to say both. Akin's comment happened so early in the election that his campaign was never able to recover from it, it dominated the headlines and kept his fundraising and support down. He was slightly leading in the polls before the scandal and was running close with Romney, so assuming he went through the campaign gaffe-free, he likely would have won.

Mourdock was also leading prior to his comment, I was in Indiana at the time and you could see a clear shift in polling/momentum as soon as it happened. That race was going to come down to the wire either way, though. Mourdock was just so unlikeable.

[DaleCooper]

It probably did move 6 points in Indiana, but it probably did not move 16 points in Missouri.

I don't know about that. Akin was practically treated like the Roy Moore of 2012. Besides that 2012 was a different world in terms of ticket-splitting, so I could easily see McCaskill narrowly winning or narrowly losing against Akin had he been a normal person.

[kyc0705]

For what it's worth, the polling from Missouri shows Akin leading by 11 points (51-40) in the last poll released before the "legitimate rape" comments on August 19. That poll, from SUSA, is uncommonly good for Akin, but a) he had still led in every poll listed here since March, and b) SUSA's last poll of this race ended up almost exactly right on the final margin. McCaskill takes a lead within a week of the comments, and Akin's best poll after that is a 5 point lead, with McCaskill ahead in every poll after mid-October.

With all of that being said, I'm inclined to say it's entirely possible Akin could have won, or at least kept it within a few points, if he hadn't said it. (Granted, I was only a kid when it happened, but I recall absolutely overwhelming backlash to that interview and it being basically all anyone knew him for.)

[Schiff for Senate]

The GOP would take both - Indiana certainly; Missouri most probably.

[Pollster]

Mourdock probably wins as he was already an established statewide figure, but its closer than the Presidential because Donnelly was obviously no pushover.

I remain firmly convinced that Akin was a uniquely poor fit for Missouri statewide and that his congressional district (now Wagner's) is a career dead end for Republicans with statewide ambitions. I'd wager McCaskill by low to mid single digits.