The Islamic Republic of Iran and the State of Israel will continue to exist through the 2040s

[PSOL]

It is finally clear to me of the resilience of the two states in continuing to exist even under massive pressure. Both countries have integrated the elites of all their respective problematic regions and ethnic groups and have shown flexibility in doing just enough reforms to get over major hurdles.

With regards to external threats, there is no major near threat. For Israel, recent events among its neighbors has been a boon for its external stability. The Syrian Civil War wiped out, weakened, and divided several Palestinian militant groups—Al-Saiqa, PFLP-GC, the Syrian based PPSF, and I believe a few others were totally dissolved through combat—along with forcefully ending Syrian external capabilities through this Civil war. Ba’athism and internationalist Wahhabi Jihadism and Muslim Brotherhood Islamism is by all accounts dead. The Israeli economy is going to greatly prosper from its new Arab trading partners unless something goes awry.

Iran has a more complicated external situation due to having very real state-based geopolitical opponents, however they are all counterbalanced in some way by other states or Iranian proxies. The GCC is basically nonfunctional due to MbS being a weak leader; being defied openly by the UAE, Qatar, and Oman who want to make $$$$ in Iran and have their own regional delusions ambitions. Somehow they allegedly sank relations with Jordan, which is also weird to me. Any external threat in Afghanistan is a non-factor due to relationship building with Northern Tajik militias and Shia groups. I also seriously doubt that Azerbaijan will annex the north of Iran given that they will face an opportunistic Armenia and a pestered Russia, along with a rally-round-a-flag effect with the birthplace of Iranian nationalism under threat.

See that’s the thing, there’s no real internal pressure in any of these countries. Enough has been said of Israeli internal stability even with its ••••••••• system resembling ••••• •••••• or Malaysia’s Bumipetra system, but that is chump change tbh. Iran is the same, with most of the in-Iran opposition being wholly Iranian nationalists; CPI, National Front, a few liberals, Islamist dissidents. They know now that attempting a Revolution is both unrealistic given their size and not optimal given external circumstances as of this writing. Meanwhile while Iran handles internal opposition with more state sanctioned violence, the welfare system continues to operate to bribe people to just move on. Also the fact that Iran wants to play NATO and the EU against China in an investment war means positive economic metrics are just around the corner.

Both Iran and Israel are unlikely to go to war with one another, and I doubt Israel smuggles in a dirty bomb to Tehran, so I have a feeling that both will outlast the Saudi dynasty into the 2040s. After then, any number of variations of effects are on the table; Turkish territorial ambitions, loss of Russian cooperation, departure of American presence in West Asia, Netanyahu making a new comeback at the dawn of death, Kahanists deciding to throw a hissy fit, and many more.

[CumbrianLefty]

Iran will certainly exist then, for sure (unless it gets obliterated as part of WW3 in the meantime)

Whether it will still be the Islamic Republic......well, let us hope otherwise.

[Samof94]

It is finally clear to me of the resilience of the two states in continuing to exist even under massive pressure. Both countries have integrated the elites of all their respective problematic regions and ethnic groups and have shown flexibility in doing just enough reforms to get over major hurdles.

With regards to external threats, there is no major near threat. For Israel, recent events among its neighbors has been a boon for its external stability. The Syrian Civil War wiped out, weakened, and divided several Palestinian militant groups—Al-Saiqa, PFLP-GC, the Syrian based PPSF, and I believe a few others were totally dissolved through combat—along with forcefully ending Syrian external capabilities through this Civil war. Ba’athism and internationalist Wahhabi Jihadism and Muslim Brotherhood Islamism is by all accounts dead. The Israeli economy is going to greatly prosper from its new Arab trading partners unless something goes awry.

Iran has a more complicated external situation due to having very real state-based geopolitical opponents, however they are all counterbalanced in some way by other states or Iranian proxies. The GCC is basically nonfunctional due to MbS being a weak leader; being defied openly by the UAE, Qatar, and Oman who want to make $$$$ in Iran and have their own regional delusions ambitions. Somehow they allegedly sank relations with Jordan, which is also weird to me. Any external threat in Afghanistan is a non-factor due to relationship building with Northern Tajik militias and Shia groups. I also seriously doubt that Azerbaijan will annex the north of Iran given that they will face an opportunistic Armenia and a pestered Russia, along with a rally-round-a-flag effect with the birthplace of Iranian nationalism under threat.

See that’s the thing, there’s no real internal pressure in any of these countries. Enough has been said of Israeli internal stability even with its ••••••••• system resembling ••••• •••••• or Malaysia’s Bumipetra system, but that is chump change tbh. Iran is the same, with most of the in-Iran opposition being wholly Iranian nationalists; CPI, National Front, a few liberals, Islamist dissidents. They know now that attempting a Revolution is both unrealistic given their size and not optimal given external circumstances as of this writing. Meanwhile while Iran handles internal opposition with more state sanctioned violence, the welfare system continues to operate to bribe people to just move on. Also the fact that Iran wants to play NATO and the EU against China in an investment war means positive economic metrics are just around the corner.

Both Iran and Israel are unlikely to go to war with one another, and I doubt Israel smuggles in a dirty bomb to Tehran, so I have a feeling that both will outlast the Saudi dynasty into the 2040s. After then, any number of variations of effects are on the table; Turkish territorial ambitions, loss of Russian cooperation, departure of American presence in West Asia, Netanyahu making a new comeback at the dawn of death, Kahanists deciding to throw a hissy fit, and many more.

Will the Saudis survive this??? It would be truly chilling if Daesh controlled Mecca.

[PSOL]

^^^

No, either in the 2030s or early 2040s the economy will collapse from a downturn in tech stocks from the next stock market crash. The Saudis have rapidly invested in the American stock exchanges in lucrative tech stocks and ETFs lately, a bit too irresponsibly given the lack of infrastructure for a good economy at home. In such a weak position, I’m sure the new external and internal enemies will take advantage of the situation breaking up Saudi Arabia apart. Given as I have said before that Daesh and the Muslim brotherhood types are a nonfactor, due to less disposable income from the donors due to the then collapse in oil price and Daesh wiping out a generation of two of fighters, the opposition will be more secular and royal in character.

The tears are already there. While islamists are out of fashion and the intellectual middle class is useless, no one should forget the Shaikhs and Saudi royal family lines wholly alienated and thrown out of the spoils lately; Bin Talal and Bin Nayef especially. There is also the fact that the UAE is forging its own imperial army to be the best in the region, and invading the Arabian coast seems like a better investment than taking Bandar Abbas. With one sign of weakness, we could see an invasion by Oman and Jordan depending on how opportunistic they become.

[beaver2.0]

I'm almost certain Iran will remain in existence.  I see the possibility of some reform to meet future economic troubles  I'm less certain about Israel but ultimately I do think it will survive in the near future.

[Vosem]

I agree with your thesis, but parts of this are ridiculously insanely specific.

^^^

No, either in the 2030s or early 2040s the economy will collapse from a downturn in tech stocks from the next stock market crash.

Have you bet on this?

[PSOL]

I agree with your thesis, but parts of this are ridiculously insanely specific.

^^^

No, either in the 2030s or early 2040s the economy will collapse from a downturn in tech stocks from the next stock market crash.

Have you bet on this?

I’m being extremely cautious and betting on a moderate downturn.

[MATTROSE94]

Israel I think survives into at least the 2040s or later now that Benjamin Netanyahu is out of power. The Iranian government, on the other hand, I think is going to collapse by the end of this decade and that Reza Pahlavi is going to be installed into power by the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UK.

[CumbrianLefty]

Israel I think survives into at least the 2040s or later now that Benjamin Netanyahu is out of power. The Iranian government, on the other hand, I think is going to collapse by the end of this decade and that Reza Pahlavi is going to be installed into power by the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UK.

How about.........NO??

[Samof94]

Israel I think survives into at least the 2040s or later now that Benjamin Netanyahu is out of power. The Iranian government, on the other hand, I think is going to collapse by the end of this decade and that Reza Pahlavi is going to be installed into power by the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UK.

How about.........NO??

Iran does have a timer on it and will likely fall(or reform) in the next few decades.

[CumbrianLefty]

Very plausible, but they won't be going back to Pahlavi rule regardless.