Will Kamala Harris ever be POTUS?

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm just curious about your thoughts on this question. I believe she's more likely than not. That said, I admit, it might be wishful thinking.

[Alben Barkley]

She has a higher chance of being the next POTUS than any other single person, but that chance is still probably below 50%.

[David Hume]

She has a higher chance of being the next POTUS than any other single person, but that chance is still probably below 50%.

DeSantis much more likely.

[Alben Barkley]

She has a higher chance of being the next POTUS than any other single person, but that chance is still probably below 50%.

DeSantis much more likely.

The steps likely required for DeSantis to become president are:

1. Donald Trump does not for re-election. Maybe 50/50 odds on this.

2. DeSantis wins the open Republican nomination. Even if DeSantis starts out with the highest odds of any single candidate, which is no guarantee this far out by any means, they will not be over 50%. Almost nobody but sitting presidents or VPs are THAT heavily favored in an open contest.

3. DeSantis wins the general election after securing the nomination. Likely lower than 50% odds against an incumbent president/party, especially since Democrats are generally favored anyway given that the national partisan lean today is somewhere around D+2-3 rather than completely even.

The paths required for Harris to become president are likely one of the following:

1. Joe Biden dies, resigns, or otherwise leaves the presidency before his term expires. Low but not insignificantly low odds.

2. Joe Biden chooses not to run for a second term. Decent odds, though probably less than 50/50. Harris then runs and will have by far the highest odds of winning the Democratic nomination of any candidate, well above DeSantis for the Republican nomination. She will then have probably at least 50/50 odds of winning the general election, for the same reason DeSantis will probably have slightly less than 50/50 odds as mentioned above.

3. Joe Biden runs for a second term and wins. Then Harris could still become president for the same reasons as in number 1, or number 2 (though her odds of winning both the primary and general would be lower).

There are clearly far more highly plausible ways for Kamala Harris to become the next president than any other single individual on the planet, including DeSantis. That's not just my opinion. It's cold hard fact based on statistical analysis. This does not by any means guarantee she WILL win or that DeSantis very well could not beat her. It just means that as things stand right now, she has more paths with higher odds to become president than anyone else.

[David Hume]

She has a higher chance of being the next POTUS than any other single person, but that chance is still probably below 50%.

DeSantis much more likely.

The steps likely required for DeSantis to become president are:

1. Donald Trump does not for re-election. Maybe 50/50 odds on this.

2. DeSantis wins the open Republican nomination. Even if DeSantis starts out with the highest odds of any single candidate, which is no guarantee this far out by any means, they will not be over 50%. Almost nobody but sitting presidents or VPs are THAT heavily favored in an open contest.

3. DeSantis wins the general election after securing the nomination. Likely lower than 50% odds against an incumbent president/party, especially since Democrats are generally favored anyway given that the national partisan lean today is somewhere around D+2-3 rather than completely even.

The paths required for Harris to become president are likely one of the following:

1. Joe Biden dies, resigns, or otherwise leaves the presidency before his term expires. Low but not insignificantly low odds.

2. Joe Biden chooses not to run for a second term. Decent odds, though probably less than 50/50. Harris then runs and will have by far the highest odds of winning the Democratic nomination of any candidate, well above DeSantis for the Republican nomination. She will then have probably at least 50/50 odds of winning the general election, for the same reason DeSantis will probably have slightly less than 50/50 odds as mentioned above.

3. Joe Biden runs for a second term and wins. Then Harris could still become president for the same reasons as in number 1, or number 2 (though her odds of winning both the primary and general would be lower).

There are clearly far more highly plausible ways for Kamala Harris to become the next president than any other single individual on the planet, including DeSantis. That's not just my opinion. It's cold hard fact based on statistical analysis. This does not by any means guarantee she WILL win or that DeSantis very well could not beat her. It just means that as things stand right now, she has more paths with higher odds to become president than anyone else.

1, The probability that Trump not running in 2024 is higher than Biden.

2, I disagree that Harris has a higher chance than DeSantis to secure nomination.

3, Again, I think DeSantis has a slightly larger chance to beat Harris than the opposite.

4, If Biden wins 2024, it is much more likely for DeSantis than Harris to win in 2028.

[brucejoel99]

Presuming that Biden follows through on his publicly-declared intent to seek re-election & wins (& doesn't die, resign, or get removed from office), the answer to your question depends on the Biden administration's popularity in 2028, in the same way that the Reagan administration's was what propelled Poppy Bush to the GOP's 3rd-consecutive presidential term.

She has a higher chance of being the next POTUS than any other single person, but that chance is still probably below 50%.

DeSantis much more likely.

Lol no. Just statistically speaking, the vice presidency is the most-reliable stepping stone to the presidency. Full stop, because that's just a fact, not only because the VP literally assumes the presidency in the event that the incumbent ceases to be President, but because current & former VPs are statistically likelier to win their party's nomination - & thus, by extension, the presidency - than any given Governor, Senator, etc. Harris already has a greater shot at being President right now than DeSantis does simply by virtue of the facts that she's the incumbent VP & that the incumbent first-year President is already 78, & said odds - however small they may be - gradually increase the longer that they remain in office.

[Schiff for Senate]

I am confident she will. She's a relatively young woman of colour who ran for president in 2020 and was able to get the VP slot. It is possible that Biden might die in office (as the oldest person elected president), in which case Harris is president. Or he might decide to retire after one term, in which case I think Harris would be the presumptive nominee. Otherwise, in 2028 when Biden retires (obviously assuming he wins reelection in 2024), it seems likely Harris will be the Democratic nominee - as a (relatively) young woman of color who ran for president and has (presumably - Biden might remove her from the ticket in 2024, but that's very, very unlikely) served as Vice-President for eight years. And given recent trends, there's no reason to assume Harris would necessarily lose in the general election, especially not if GA and AZ are blue-ish states by then, and definitely not if TX is in play (possible given current trends) - because then the GOP will need to focus completely on TX, without which it becomes impossible for them to win.

[TDAS04]

She has a higher chance of being the next POTUS than any other single person, but that chance is still probably below 50%.

This.

[David Hume]

[/quote]

Lol no. Just statistically speaking, the vice presidency is the most-reliable stepping stone to the presidency. Full stop, because that's just a fact, not only because the VP literally assumes the presidency in the event that the incumbent ceases to be President, but because current & former VPs are statistically likelier to win their party's nomination - & thus, by extension, the presidency - than any given Governor, Senator, etc. Harris already has a greater shot at being President right now than DeSantis does simply by virtue of the facts that she's the incumbent VP & that the incumbent first-year President is already 78, & said odds - however small they may be - gradually increase the longer that they remain in office.
[/quote]

By this logic, the VP of Carter was more likely than Reagan to be President.

[brucejoel99]

Lol no. Just statistically speaking, the vice presidency is the most-reliable stepping stone to the presidency. Full stop, because that's just a fact, not only because the VP literally assumes the presidency in the event that the incumbent ceases to be President, but because current & former VPs are statistically likelier to win their party's nomination - & thus, by extension, the presidency - than any given Governor, Senator, etc. Harris already has a greater shot at being President right now than DeSantis does simply by virtue of the facts that she's the incumbent VP & that the incumbent first-year President is already 78, & said odds - however small they may be - gradually increase the longer that they remain in office.

By this logic, the VP of Carter was more likely than Reagan to be President.

Are you just deliberately being obtuse or something? Yes, on July 5th, 1977, Mondale - just by virtue of his position alone - was statistically more likely to end up being a future President than Reagan, given the non-zero possibility of Carter just dropping dead at any moment, compared to the far-from-guaranteed odds that Reagan would not only go on to win the GOP nomination in 1980, but then wrest the presidency away from the not-yet-unpopular incumbent. Until the next elections & the dynamics thereof actually end up playing out, all we ever have to work with - unless one has a crystal-ball showing them exactly what the future is - are the relevant stats here, & it's an objective truth that, statistically speaking, an incumbent Vice President is just more likely to end up being a future President than any given incumbent Governor is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, Climate change and Pandemic had changed things, we must liy fracking to keep the Environment safe and sound that Reagan left to his grandchildren a global warming Environment, not limits to Fracking. Also, in a Pandemic, Reagan, Bush W and Trump gave 3T in tax cuts in an income inequality life in the aftermath of Great Recession.

The Rs don't have any answers for these but keep the Election theory that 2020 was somehow stolen

[bagelman]

I sure hope not, but it's too early to say.

[SWE]

Only if Biden dies. It would take an exceptional combination of bad luck and incompetence on the GOP's end for her to win an election in her own right

[Del Tachi]

Probably only if Biden resigns/dies; I don't think she would beat Trump or DeSantis in 2024, and if Biden's reelected in 2024 then we're due for a party change in 2028 anyway 

[Senator-elect Spark]

It's totally inevitable.

[Schiff for Senate]

She has a higher chance of being the next POTUS than any other single person, but that chance is still probably below 50%.

DeSantis much more likely.

The steps likely required for DeSantis to become president are:

1. Donald Trump does not for re-election. Maybe 50/50 odds on this.

2. DeSantis wins the open Republican nomination. Even if DeSantis starts out with the highest odds of any single candidate, which is no guarantee this far out by any means, they will not be over 50%. Almost nobody but sitting presidents or VPs are THAT heavily favored in an open contest.

3. DeSantis wins the general election after securing the nomination. Likely lower than 50% odds against an incumbent president/party, especially since Democrats are generally favored anyway given that the national partisan lean today is somewhere around D+2-3 rather than completely even.

The paths required for Harris to become president are likely one of the following:

1. Joe Biden dies, resigns, or otherwise leaves the presidency before his term expires. Low but not insignificantly low odds.

2. Joe Biden chooses not to run for a second term. Decent odds, though probably less than 50/50. Harris then runs and will have by far the highest odds of winning the Democratic nomination of any candidate, well above DeSantis for the Republican nomination. She will then have probably at least 50/50 odds of winning the general election, for the same reason DeSantis will probably have slightly less than 50/50 odds as mentioned above.

3. Joe Biden runs for a second term and wins. Then Harris could still become president for the same reasons as in number 1, or number 2 (though her odds of winning both the primary and general would be lower).

There are clearly far more highly plausible ways for Kamala Harris to become the next president than any other single individual on the planet, including DeSantis. That's not just my opinion. It's cold hard fact based on statistical analysis. This does not by any means guarantee she WILL win or that DeSantis very well could not beat her. It just means that as things stand right now, she has more paths with higher odds to become president than anyone else.

Very trye analysis. For the reasons you described, I don't think there's been a single Vice-President since George H.W. Bush by late 1988 where it's clearer that they will be president. I'd say that there's a close to 60% chance (maybe higher) that Harris has been president by January 3, 2029.

[MarkD]

Yes, I think Biden wins re-election in 2024, then Harris wins in 2028, and wins re-election in 2032. Democrats are obviously in a rut when it comes to nominating their sitting or former Vice Presidents. Republicans will eventually win 2036. It will take them that long to get over their worship of Trump.

[Mister Mets]

She has a higher chance of being the next POTUS than any other single person, but that chance is still probably below 50%.

I'd agree here. The four scenarios that lead to her becoming President (Biden is unable to serve, She wins an open election in 2024, She wins an open election in 2028 after two terms of Biden, She wins an open election in 2028 after Biden loses in '24) probably don't equal 50 percent, but do get close.

[Real Texan Politics]

Depends on who runs against her.

[EastwoodS]

Yes, I think Biden wins re-election in 2024, then Harris wins in 2028, and wins re-election in 2032. Democrats are obviously in a rut when it comes to nominating their sitting or former Vice Presidents. Republicans will eventually win 2036. It will take them that long to get over their worship of Trump.

Lmao

[HAnnA MArin County]

I sure hope not, but it's too early to say.

[DC Guy]

I doubt it

I don't think the country will elect a women president in the near future. Look at how much undeserved hate Hillary got.

While Harris will get a lot of unfair hate by virtue of being a female POC, she does have geninue reasons to dislike her. She is a flip flopper and over ambitious. During the primaries, she struggled to find a reason for folks to vote for her other than "making history". And she can be akward and cringly. Remember "I know your watching Mr. President" ugh

[Mister Mets]

She has a higher chance of being the next POTUS than any other single person, but that chance is still probably below 50%.

I'd agree here. The four scenarios that lead to her becoming President (Biden is unable to serve, She wins an open election in 2024, She wins an open election in 2028 after two terms of Biden, She wins an open election in 2028 after Biden loses in '24) probably don't equal 50 percent, but do get close.

I've been thinking about this a little bit more.

I'd put the odds at Biden being unable to serve at about 10 percent. I'm open to other viewpoints. This takes into account the possibility he'll run for a second term in his 80s.

My guess is that Biden's chances of not running for a second term are 60%, Harris' chances of winning the Democratic primary are 80% and her chances of winning the General Election are around 50%, partly because she's a weak candidate. This makes the odds she's elected in 2024 at 24 percent.

If Biden runs again (40% odds), his chances of winning are 70%, Harris' chances of winning the primary are around 75% and her chances of winning the general election are around 30% (weak candidate + historical tendency to kick parties out of the White House.) This makes the odds she's elected to follow a two-term Biden at just over 6 percent.

Biden also has a 30% chance of losing. I think Harris would have a 50% chance of being the next presidential nominee (name recognition + favorable media + Democrats would be suspicious of anyone challenging a frontrunner who is a woman of color) and a 30% chance of winning the General Election. So the odds of this scenario are under 2 percent.

The combined odds of these scenarios are around 42 percent.

Your mileage may vary. You may think she'll be a stronger general election candidate, or that she's weaker in primaries, or whatever.

[GregTheGreat657]

No, she has zero working class appeal, which would cost her the Rust Belt states the Biden narrowly flipped.

[THG]

Probably only if Biden resigns/dies; I don't think she would beat Trump or DeSantis in 2024, and if Biden's reelected in 2024 then we're due for a party change in 2028 anyway