Afghan government collapse.

[urutzizu]

China officially recognizes the Taliban: Hua Chunying MFA spokeswoman says at a press conference that "We respect the Choice of the Afghan people"

Embassy is staying, being treated not as a regime collapse but just a regular change of Government.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-08-16/China-says-respects-Afghan-people-s-choice-amid-changing-situation--12LYPEBkpK8/index.html

There have been many comments in the west that China has a great interest in Afghanistan, that China is likely to fill the power vacuum left by the west, wants to invest in infrastructure there etc., but that is actually...well...not really the case.

There are some contracts for resource extraction (mostly stalled/abandoned, most notably Mes Aynak) and small scale infrastructure, but there aren't really substantial investments nor is there much of an interest in Afghanistan at all actually, besides for having a propaganda field day re the US for Saigon II. It not really remotely comparable to Iran or Pakistan for instance. China will retain cordial relations with the Taliban (like it did with the previous Regime) to ensure stability and avoid the reemergence of terrorism, but the Idea that there is really substantial "Interest" in Afghanistan is largely overblown, for better or for worse.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

China's role is more geostrategic than material: bolsters its growing alliance with Pakistan and also helps avoid overspill into their own borders. In a realist sense, the Taliban - insular and nationalistic - is less of a threat than more revolutionary Islamist movements or an open warzone; and if you have them in your pocket you can allow them to nip ISIS style movements that are interested in international Islamist insurrection in the bud.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

This is a complete fiasco caused entirely by the Biden Administrations poor policies and inability to plan for the withdrawal. The evacuation of interprets and other local staff should have started much earlier and the embassy should have been massively scaled down .I am normally a fan of his administration's policies but he has completely botched the withdrawal process here. There was no need for chaos at the airport or for people to be clutching to the wings of taking off planes, he needs to take responsibility and publicaly outline a plan to evacuate everyone from the aiport. He should also address the nation tonight instead of waiting and take some actual responsibility, suspend the pointless paperwork and formalities.

There was no need for this to become a Saigon but his poor policies have caused it.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/samhusseini/status/1427068129839042564
This.....is.....brutal.

It was indeed a matter of time, and duly happened, but it still took three years.

This time round......three weeks? And before all the troops had even gone!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I guess there were at least a handful of True Believers in Communism, whereas I can't see why anyone would go their grave defending the current government.

[Cassius]

Also, for all that people have been making fun of the Afghan army (and clearly some of that is warranted and that in places cowardice and/or treachery have played a role), the fact is that many (most?) units were under-strength and had no food or ammunition, and in those circumstances you’d have to be mad to expect them to put up any sort of resistance. I suppose the US ‘analysts’ made the assumption that the Afghan army would be at full strength and properly provisioned, hence the ‘shock’ over the speed at which the army has collapsed.

[WMS]

China officially recognizes the Taliban: Hua Chunying MFA spokeswoman says at a press conference that "We respect the Choice of the Afghan people"

Embassy is staying, being treated not as a regime collapse but just a regular change of Government.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-08-16/China-says-respects-Afghan-people-s-choice-amid-changing-situation--12LYPEBkpK8/index.html

How many countries will recognize a Taliban-led Afghanistan?

China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Belarus, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Pakistan, the Russian puppet states, Myanmar, Syria initially and fairly quickly. Then most of the other oppressive governments out there, and some of the less scrupulous semi-democracies and democracies.

It would be nice to be wrong, but I doubt it.

Yup.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/samhusseini/status/1427068129839042564
This.....is.....brutal.

It was indeed a matter of time, and duly happened, but it still took three years.

This time round......three weeks? And before all the troops had even gone!

And in those 3 years, the USSR and eastern Europe communist countries all fell first. Really a much more impressive run than Ghani's joke government.

[Zinneke]

And for that there are a host of US "analysts" that should be fired. And a reshuffle of all the major foreign policy positions.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Angel Merkel has announced that she wants to airlift 10,000 people out of Afghanistan now. The first planes are on their way. Mostly these are people who had worked for the German Armed Forces and other German government agencies during the past 20 years.

Nevertheless, her government currently faces a similar kind of criticism Biden does in America... that the Taliban caught Germany with its pants down etc.

[Middle-aged Europe]

"Safehouses just dissolved. Taliban are going from door to door. If rescue is coming it will be too late. It's over." - Marcus Grotian, German Army captain & chair of the Partnerschaftsnetzwerk Afghanische Ortskräfte ("Partnership network Afghan local employees"), as quoted by news media.

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/1427204628735696898?s=20

Kabul moment

[jaichind]

AP NewsAlert: US Official: US Military Commander Met Face-to-face With Taliban to Seek Non-interference With Kabul Airport

[Sir Mohamed]

While it's clear US forces and the Biden Admin were ill prepared for this, it's too easy to shift the blame only on ourselves and our allies. This situation is equally - if not more - a catastrophic failure of a corrupt Afghan govt that never managed to win enough public support, an incompetent military leadership and outright quitting members of the Afghan forces, who technically are superior to the Taliban militarily.

Another major NATO mistake was clearly not to take roles of other regional players into account, Pakistan in particular. Taliban would have never gotten that strong without political, military and logistical support from outside. Unfortunately, we never went forcefully enough after their supporters. To extinguish a fire, you first need to cut off the oxygen.

[Middle-aged Europe]

German planes are reported to have trouble landing in Kabul because the runways aren't cleared (of people).

CDU Chancellor-candidate Armin Laschet has called the current situation "the greatest debacle in the history of NATO". German parliament is expected to vote on the authorization of the use of military force for the purposes of the evacuation mission soon, a legal formality to give soldiers the proper clearance to protect the mission and evacuees if necessary.

[Storebought]

Even the Russians were taken aback at how quickly the Afghan defense forces folded...

I also recognize that the Taliban, for the brief time being, are a reasonable party -- if they wanted a CNN primetime bloodbath, they would easily have one. NATO should request access to a second airport since the one at Kabul is manifestly overburdened and the Taliban don't want to frighten Russia and China off with too overt a show of violence against mostly unarmed people.

[MATTROSE94]

I guess there were at least a handful of True Believers in Communism, whereas I can't see why anyone would go their grave defending the current government.

I know that Iran had a strong communist movement from the 1940s until the 1980s, so maybe the same thing was true regarding its neighbor to the east?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tbh now that I think of the timeline, it's probably less ideology more that our friend Dostum  was affiliated with the communists in name so the "Communist forces" were just a bunch of Uzbeks loyal to their leader. I think any true Communism was stamped out in the brutal purges after the Saur Revolution.

[PSOL]

I guess there were at least a handful of True Believers in Communism, whereas I can't see why anyone would go their grave defending the current government.

I know that Iran had a strong communist movement from the 1940s until the 1980s, so maybe the same thing was true regarding its neighbor to the east?

Proportionally the socialist movement was smaller but less divided. There were three main factions; Khalqists, Parchamists, and a Maoist faction in several big universities. The previous two were apart of the same party until the Soviets conducted a coup and wiped out the faction not as willing to be subservient to Soviet Leadership.

The communist movement is currently dead. Outside of a small reformist party, irrelevant Maoists, and a few independents—the remaining people associated with the communist government chose to opportunistically back the American-created government. However, with the huge urbanization that I doubt is all that irreversible since 2001 especially, there theoretically is a larger base of an urban working class along with overlapping “unemployed” declassed and precarious youths used as surplus Labour for temporary informal work. The latter faction, especially those who join the army out of desperation, have been susceptible in getting life crises and being sympathetic to the “revolutionary” Taliban who promise an accountable government governed by Pashtun norms.

Given I no doubt suspect the Taliban to be unstable and f••• up, and have nasty proxy conflicts destabilize the government, the chances are high for progressive forces to sneak through the cracks and build power in the long term once they fail and are weak in 20-30 years.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tbh now that I think of the timeline, it's probably less ideology more that our friend Dostum  was affiliated with the communists in name so the "Communist forces" were just a bunch of Uzbeks loyal to their leader.

Yes, this is correct. The Najibullah government was entirely dependent on Dostum and when he eventually switched sides the end followed extremely rapidly. It is also the case that the situation was completely different to the present in other ways: the country had just been destroyed by nearly a decade of Total War, its cities and many towns and villages were rubble, at least a tenth of the population had been killed and more had fled across the border into Pakistan. And the Mujahiddin were divided between multiple groups with different ideological positions, ethnic profiles and long-term ambitions. None of that applies to the present.

[Red Velvet]

While it's clear US forces and the Biden Admin were ill prepared for this, it's too easy to shift the blame only on ourselves and our allies. This situation is equally - if not more - a catastrophic failure of a corrupt Afghan govt that never managed to win enough public support, an incompetent military leadership and outright quitting members of the Afghan forces, who technically are superior to the Taliban militarily.

Another major NATO mistake was clearly not to take roles of other regional players into account, Pakistan in particular. Taliban would have never gotten that strong without political, military and logistical support from outside. Unfortunately, we never went forcefully enough after their supporters. To extinguish a fire, you first need to cut off the oxygen.

You’re overthinking it. US never really cared about ending terrorism in the region so why would they do that? lol

There was a specific group of people who benefited from the extension of this unnecessary war. What’s the point of producing war guns, planes and equipments if you’re not involved in a war?

[WMS]

How many countries will recognize a Taliban-led Afghanistan?

China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Belarus, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Pakistan, the Russian puppet states, Myanmar, Syria initially and fairly quickly. Then most of the other oppressive governments out there, and some of the less scrupulous semi-democracies and democracies.

It would be nice to be wrong, but I doubt it.

Judging by the remarks of leaders in Iran and Pakistan it’s time to add them to the list.

[WMS]

On a separate note there’s one province the Taliban haven’t taken: Panjshir. The birthplace, home, and resting place of the only truly decent Afghan warlord, Ahmad Shah Massoud. I’m sure the Taliban would love to desecrate Massoud’s tomb but that might be one bridge too far even for them.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/1427204628735696898?s=20

Kabul moment

https://twitter.com/Rajput_ctn/status/1427242329518141440?fbclid=IwAR1aOp9G2b-Z5...

[Crumpets]

Had a minor heart attack when I saw this tweet. It's not the same person.

https://twitter.com/CSIS/status/1427290403477274630