How does the British Labour Party regain power?

[Suburbia]

One of the world's oldest socialist parties; what does Labour do?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Traditionally this is done by means of winning an election. Of course the Labour Party is not very good at this and only very rarely has been, but hope springs eternal.

[parochial boy]

This may be the most lukewarm of hot takes, but might it not be helpful to drop the image of having to have some sort of ideological "project" and basically just go something like - hey guys, if you vote for us, we'll invest in public services so that you have good schools and good hospitals and good public transport and social housing and all the rest of it. Knowing full well that most people basically appreciate those things, and most people know that the Tories aren't very good at those things and most people aren't fundementally very interested in whether the centrists or the soft left or whoever control the party.

[mileslunn]

I think biggest challenge for Labour is Tories are very good at re-inventing themselves.  The Cameron style party was popular at first, but probably by now people would have fatigued of it and being ready for change.  Johnson Tories are very different than Cameron Tories so almost feels like new government not continuation thus challenges.

Main thing for them is really two fold:

1.  Play up the Tory mess ups to drive up the negatives of Tories.  As long as people are happy with Tories, Labour is going nowhere
2.  Stay away from culture wars and focus on pragmatic policies to help people.  And more importantly define what you stand for, like have a coherent vision.  One that is realistic (not pie in the sky like Corbyn), but also consistent (not try to please everyone like Starmer is doing now).

[Conservatopia]

This may be the most lukewarm of hot takes, but might it not be helpful to drop the image of having to have some sort of ideological "project" and basically just go something like - hey guys, if you vote for us, we'll invest in public services so that you have good schools and good hospitals and good public transport and social housing and all the rest of it. Knowing full well that most people basically appreciate those things, and most people know that the Tories aren't very good at those things and most people aren't fundementally very interested in whether the centrists or the soft left or whoever control the party.

This works until the public perceives the Tories at being good at delivering public services.  Now of course the Tories will never miss an opportunity to screw up public services but the danger for Labour when following that strategy is that the Tories could in theory become competent.  Sure that's seems far-fetched but it could happen.

[Blair]

It needs to find a balance between a programme that is both credible enough to survive a tough general election but equally offers enough to get its existing coalition of voters out. A lot of people on the right of the Labour party have forgotten that the 97, 2001 & 2005 election were ran on an extremely popular & expensive set of policies that voters liked!

The most obvious venue for this is a rather large policy change on social care; I really can't see how you can argue that the £££ spent on energy nationalisation is more electorally potent than social care reform for Labour.

[CumbrianLefty]

Is "by winning enough votes in the right places" an acceptable answer?

[Gary JG]

Is "by winning enough votes in the right places" an acceptable answer?

Winning enough votes in the right places, is a self evidently right proposition. It does nothing to identify where and how.

There has been a realignment in Scotland, which seems unlikely to be reversed in the near future. A realignment may be underway in some hitherto relatively strongly Labour rural and small town areas in northern England and the midlands. If the 2019 general election is not just a one off blip, Labour may find it difficult to accumulate the number of seats in such areas that it had for most of the past century.

Labour in Parliament may be increasingly dependent upon its support in large urban areas. It may have some capacity to win a few more seats in southern England, but it is weak in most of the non urban south. It may also find that large scale advances in the south are blocked by the existence of Green Party and Liberal Democrat areas of relative strength.

My suspicion is that Labour are too strong to not be the largest element of any possible anti-Tory majority. However it will not be strong enough to get close to a single party majority and may well block other non-Tory parties from making major advances in England.

I fear that we face a period like the inter-World War years, where Conservative (or Conservative dominated coalition) governments with large majorities alternate with weak minority governments which can achieve little.

The long term hope is a more fundamental realignment, either to a normal continental style multi party democracy with proportional representation or to a new stable two party system using first past the post elections. Hopefully a World War will not be required to bring about such changes.

[brucejoel99]

Offer legitimate, substantive, economic materialist policies & put them up-front a lot more than they do in the status quo.

[CumbrianLefty]

Is "by winning enough votes in the right places" an acceptable answer?

Winning enough votes in the right places, is a self evidently right proposition. It does nothing to identify where and how.

There has been a realignment in Scotland, which seems unlikely to be reversed in the near future. A realignment may be underway in some hitherto relatively strongly Labour rural and small town areas in northern England and the midlands. If the 2019 general election is not just a one off blip, Labour may find it difficult to accumulate the number of seats in such areas that it had for most of the past century.

Labour in Parliament may be increasingly dependent upon its support in large urban areas. It may have some capacity to win a few more seats in southern England, but it is weak in most of the non urban south. It may also find that large scale advances in the south are blocked by the existence of Green Party and Liberal Democrat areas of relative strength.

My suspicion is that Labour are too strong to not be the largest element of any possible anti-Tory majority. However it will not be strong enough to get close to a single party majority and may well block other non-Tory parties from making major advances in England.

I fear that we face a period like the inter-World War years, where Conservative (or Conservative dominated coalition) governments with large majorities alternate with weak minority governments which can achieve little.

The long term hope is a more fundamental realignment, either to a normal continental style multi party democracy with proportional representation or to a new stable two party system using first past the post elections. Hopefully a World War will not be required to bring about such changes.

Alternative scenario, of course, is that the Tory advances in former Labour areas first get stalled and then go into reverse when a) it becomes clear they have little intention of really doing anything for these places, as opposed to offering empty culture war slogans, and b) the people who most adore the culture war stuff - home owning boomers - start to die off in significant numbers.

Seriously, the Tory vote in many of these areas still has a distinctly "instrumental" feel to it.

[Cassius]

Thinking about it, the Conservative governments of the interwar years really are by far the best analogy for the Conservative governments of the last eleven years, right down to Cameron/May/Johnson being s*** versions of Baldwin/Chamberlain/Churchill.

[CumbrianLefty]

So who is Attlee (even a rubbish version) going to be in this analogy?

[Cassius]

So who is Attlee (even a rubbish version) going to be in this analogy?

Tough one. I guess John Healey fits the bill of an older, long-serving MP with government experience and a generally low-key personal style whom the factions could probably unite around as a stop gap… but obviously he’s not going to become leader. Of course, Starmer himself is a barrister (like Attlee) with a somewhat low-key personal style, so it could be him if he becomes PM in 2023-4, but I very much doubt he’ll ever win an Attlee style landslide (and he’s become very polarising to a degree that Attlee wasn’t, even if Attlee was never that popular when he was Labour leader).

[CumbrianLefty]

Attlee was definitely not popular as Labour leader in the 1935-39 period, there were plots against him and all.

[FrancoAgo]

never, at best they get the government in few decades
social democratic party not go to power just to the government

[Blair]

Attlee was definitely not popular as Labour leader in the 1935-39 period, there were plots against him and all.

And in 1945- I think Hebert Morrison tried to get rid of him through some sort of PLP vote.

[mileslunn]

never, at best they get the government in few decades
social democratic party not go to power just to the government

Social democracy is in big trouble in Europe, but most European countries are PR systems and multi party so most still have centre-left parties form government at some point but centre-left tend to have much shorter times in government than do centre-right.  With no other centre-left party that could replace Labour, that means eventually they should win as parties don't stay in power forever.  It just probably means future is long Tory rule with brief Labour interregnums.

I actually think for social democracy, future may be in New World.  While I don't see it going far in US, I am somewhat surprised that you haven't had social democratic governors in some solid blue states as GOP so toxic in some states I think there is potential for ones to win at state level.  At national level obviously not. 

New Zealand looks good now but whether that is a strong shift to Labour long term or more Jacinda Ardern phenomenon hard to say, but I tend to think latter rather than former.  Australia may not be great for social democratic parties but at least Labor hasn't imploded like most European social democratic parties.  Always competitive, just seem to each time fall a bit short.

Canada is another possibility.  While nationally things may not look great, Liberal party of Canada under Trudeau is in many ways a social democratic one, just less ideological than most so sort of combines progressive ideals with pragmatism needed to win.  At same time he is super woke and I think his wokeness wouldn't sell in UK or anywhere in Europe.  One possibility though is in 2025, you have provincial NDP governments from BC through Ontario.  That could help create situation where NDP wins nationally.  I think BC, Alberta, and Manitoba having NDP in 2025 is a strong likelihood, but Ontario possible but not likely and Saskatchewan probably the toughest of the five provinces.

Still I do agree UK for social democracy is seeing what much of the rest of Europe is.  But I think unlike rest of Europe, lack of alternative means they do win eventually when people fatigue of Tories, but being successful over the long term is going to be hard.

[Alben Barkley]

Bring back Tony Blair.

[brucejoel99]

Bring back Tony Blair.

Presumably a joke, but the guy's approval ratings, at 22/48, are literally worse than Starmer's, at 24/35. Even if you're just saying that they should bring "3rd-way Blairism" back, that'd also be a big mistake given how far the Overton window has shifted since then. Granted, there's a lot that modern-day Labour can learn from Blair's message management abilities of once-upon-a-time, but a return to Blairism in & of itself is emphatically not the path to a new Labour (lol) government.

[mileslunn]

Bring back Tony Blair.

Presumably a joke, but the guy's approval ratings, at 22/48, are literally worse than Starmer's, at 24/35. Even if you're just saying that they should bring "3rd-way Blairism" back, that'd also be a big mistake given how far the Overton window has shifted since then. Granted, there's a lot that modern-day Labour can learn from Blair's message management abilities of once-upon-a-time, but a return to Blairism in & of itself is emphatically not the path to a new Labour (lol) government.

I think Labour could benefit from someone who was same age Tony Blair was in 1997 and had the charisma.  Generally young leaders tend to be a huge asset for progressive parties.  See Jacinda Ardern, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron and to lesser extent Sanna Marin.  Anna Baerbock in Germany also got similar bump but that seems to be going away as more scrutiny.  And also Mette Fredericksen in Denmark.

[Ancestral Republican]

Wait out the natural lifespan of the average British human? Do that and you return to power in 10-12 years, tops.

[CumbrianLefty]

Bring back Tony Blair.

Presumably a joke, but the guy's approval ratings, at 22/48, are literally worse than Starmer's, at 24/35. Even if you're just saying that they should bring "3rd-way Blairism" back, that'd also be a big mistake given how far the Overton window has shifted since then. Granted, there's a lot that modern-day Labour can learn from Blair's message management abilities of once-upon-a-time, but a return to Blairism in & of itself is emphatically not the path to a new Labour (lol) government.

I think Labour could benefit from someone who was same age Tony Blair was in 1997 and had the charisma.  Generally young leaders tend to be a huge asset for progressive parties.  See Jacinda Ardern, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron and to lesser extent Sanna Marin.  Anna Baerbock in Germany also got similar bump but that seems to be going away as more scrutiny.  And also Mette Fredericksen in Denmark.

Not the most charismatic maybe, but Lisa Nandy certainly fits the above from an age perspective.

[Alben Barkley]

Bring back Tony Blair.

Presumably a joke, but the guy's approval ratings, at 22/48, are literally worse than Starmer's, at 24/35. Even if you're just saying that they should bring "3rd-way Blairism" back, that'd also be a big mistake given how far the Overton window has shifted since then. Granted, there's a lot that modern-day Labour can learn from Blair's message management abilities of once-upon-a-time, but a return to Blairism in & of itself is emphatically not the path to a new Labour (lol) government.

It was a joke (mostly…), but I think Labour could learn a lot from both Blair’s messaging abilities and moderation. They don’t have to go all the way back to his “Third Way,” but nonetheless need to crack down on their more extreme elements that are dragging them down and play more to the center. Honestly could in some ways be closer to what Biden has done than what Blair/Clinton did back in the day: Stay solidly center-left, but more emphasis on the CENTER.

[Blair]

Yes there’s a weird problem in that the Labour right seem to have taken all their Blair related lessons from the 2005 and beyond era (more charitably know as ‘god isn’t everything falling apart) rather than the much more populist and successful earlier years when the party was actually doing well.

[CumbrianLefty]

Bring back Tony Blair.

Presumably a joke, but the guy's approval ratings, at 22/48, are literally worse than Starmer's, at 24/35. Even if you're just saying that they should bring "3rd-way Blairism" back, that'd also be a big mistake given how far the Overton window has shifted since then. Granted, there's a lot that modern-day Labour can learn from Blair's message management abilities of once-upon-a-time, but a return to Blairism in & of itself is emphatically not the path to a new Labour (lol) government.

It was a joke (mostly…), but I think Labour could learn a lot from both Blair’s messaging abilities and moderation. They don’t have to go all the way back to his “Third Way,” but nonetheless need to crack down on their more extreme elements that are dragging them down and play more to the center. Honestly could in some ways be closer to what Biden has done than what Blair/Clinton did back in the day: Stay solidly center-left, but more emphasis on the CENTER.

The point is, these "elements" are mostly online noise.