Ontario Election 2022

[jaichind]

The polling looks pretty good for PC but what are the chances of OLP-NDP tactical voting denying PC a majority?

[jaichind]

How much of a problem are New Blue Party and Ontario Party for PC?    Namely are they stronger in PC strongholds (which would mean no problem for PC) or are they stronger in marginal districts (which would mean plenty of problems for PC)?

[jaichind]

PC - 79 (37%)
NDP - 28  (24%)
Lib - 16 (27%)
GP - 1 (5%)

[jaichind]

It seems a surprise, to me, that the late minute polls seems to have broken in favor of PC.  My impression of Canada elections is that usually last minute breaks, if any, are in favor of an opposition party at the expense of the ruling party or at the expense of another opposition party.

[jaichind]

It seems a surprise, to me, that the late minute polls seems to have broken in favor of PC.  My impression of Canada elections is that usually last minute breaks, if any, are in favor of an opposition party at the expense of the ruling party or at the expense of another opposition party.

They can be, but just as often it's the incumbent party that does better than expected (ON 2014, BC 2013, SK 2020, etc.) or the (non-incumbent) perceived frontrunner (ON 2018, AB 2019, etc.).

I guess it must be where there are cases where the is a last minute pro-opposition surge are more memorable

[jaichind]

Toward the end of the campaign I expected either the Libs or NDP to collapse to the benefit of the other.  I guess it did not happen much to the benefit of PC.

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

It seems a PC rebel is ahead in Haldimand-Norfolk

[jaichind]

Jagmeet Singh's brother lost

[jaichind]

Libs finally ahead of NDP in vote share