Ontario Election 2022

[adma]

People can debate the pros and cons of Andrea Horwath but the fact that she has lost three elections (though gaining ground each time) is neither here nor there. Gary Doer lost three elections as NDP leader in Manitoba and was dismissed as a loser who was past his prime, then he won a majority in 1995 on his fourth attempt and went on to win three more elections after that!

Similarly Darrell Dexter lost three times as NDP leader in Nova Scotia and then won a majority in his fourth attempt. 

Dexter became Premier in his third election as leader (official opposition in 2003 and 2006, government in 2009) and at the time of victory he had been NDP leader for eight years, which is significantly less than the timeframe we're talking about. Doer is a reasonable comparison, although his case is obviously rare and in any case I doubt that the Manitoba NDP was in third place in the polls in the year of his fourth election.

In any case, I am not an expert. I do not live in Ontario so I am not exposed to Ontario media and I have no particular inside knowledge. I was merely offering a suggestion for the NDP's poor performance in recent polls. Even if it had made sense, it would obviously be too late to change leaders now, but I would be genuinely interested in hearing an affirmative case for Horwath from the perspective of someone who thinks that the NDP should be trying to win the election. What about Horwath makes her the one to lead the NDP back into government?

I think if one focuses upon the "nice person" part of my "nice person, shame about the party" argument, you get a *bit* of an idea of why she could be such a person.  And as for the "poor performance": it's still not *irretrievably* poor, particularly if one thinks in terms of Jack Layton polling closer to the 10th percentile at this stage of the game in 2011.  And finally, even if she *does* fall short once again, if she does so while leaving the party in good enough shape to live another day (or as I suggested, a "25-seat scenario" as opposed to a Wynne-esque "7-seat scenario"), that's the foundation for somebody who potentially *can*--to "finish the deal", so to speak.  I mean, *already* she's left the party in better shape than it was in when she entered the leadership; so *that* counts for something.  (Plus, there's the ever-looming likelihood of a minority circumstance, where even if she *is* pushed back into 3rd, she'd still be well-positioned to affect government policy.)

Also, there's the technicalities which *could* play out within the writ period, and which indeed often have the NDP outperforming between-election polling at the ballot box (think of Layton, or even Jagmeet Singh in '19): the NDP having a much larger caucus in place to build upon than the Liberals do, the NDP having the Official Party Status infrastructure in place which the Liberals don't, and other imponderables such as campaign and debate performance, and the fact that regardless of their default poll standing, the Liberals don't exactly have a "personable" leader themselves.

And honestly--Horwath's "negatives" have been overstated again and again, a combination of traditional condescension t/w the proverbial can-never-win "socialist hordes" and garden-variety sexism (almost invariably by male commentators).  Even in '18, when she was already polling promisingly, I was reading sniffy eye-rolling "Andrea?  Come now" judgments re her prospects--and then when she *did* outperform as per that promising polling, the attitude was "yeah, but she still lost".  Any opportunity to accentuate the negative will do; and it's that "yeah, but she still lost" attitude that she's been confronting ever since.

So yes--the path ahead of her is poisoned.  Not to the point of being untraversable; however, the nature of electoral politics is *way* too dynamic and multidimensional to be boiled down to nothing more than setting a GPS coordinate of "government" and following a prescribed path to the letter, over and over again, as if the electoral backroads and blue highways and business loops never existed...

[Hatman 🍁]

I can recall the comments at this place back in 2018 before campaign started. Lots of stories about people dismissing the NDP as a joke, despite the fact the Liberals were deeply unpopular at the time. I had a gut feeling the NDP would do well in that election based on the circumstances. I don't share that feeling now, however. I honestly don't know what will happen, really.

[adma]

I can recall the comments at this place back in 2018 before campaign started. Lots of stories about people dismissing the NDP as a joke, despite the fact the Liberals were deeply unpopular at the time. I had a gut feeling the NDP would do well in that election based on the circumstances. I don't share that feeling now, however. I honestly don't know what will happen, really.

Well, I think the Libs have played things well, under the circumstances--candidate selection and all.  Even if their leader looks like that guy in the old Six Flags commercials.

Remember:  the NDP's eternal enemy, in Ontario especially, is Liberal concern trolling.  Whether it be along the lines of "wasted vote", or "a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives (y'know, the federal 2011 and provincial 2018 majorities, or maybe Mike Harris in 1995 as a consequence of Bob Rae in 1990).  And where any evidence of "underperformance" (which might basically just amount to "not winning", even as in 2018) is pounced upon as a fatal weakness and a catastrophe.

Which is, in the end, as silly as calling Jimi Hendrix's "All Along The Watchtower" a flop and a disaster, because it only reached #20 on Billboard rather than spending 9 weeks at #1 like the Beatles' "Hey Jude".

[adma]

And in a way, much of what I say about the ONDP also presently pertains to the OLP--after all, they're going into this election in far worse parliamentary shape than the NDP was going into 2018, and Del Duca would seem to be far less personable a leader than Horwath is.  I'm making no bold claims for them expecting to win *now* (unless they are)--they're playing a longer game.

Elections aren't standalones; they're part of a chain.  So if Horwath fails and yet leaves her party in good enough shape that it can be passed on to the next set of able hands, no problem.  And ditto with Del Duca.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The PCs' "budget but not really a budget" budget is a ballsy move on their part. Bethlenfalvy was pretty unconvincing when asked if the PCs will pass the same budget if re-elected, which leaves a line of attack open for the Liberals/NDP (they're only making these promises to get re-elected, they won't follow through on them, etc). And I can't imagine fiscal conservatives are too happy about the level of spending proposed either.

I guess the PC strategy is to coast on a decent economy, right-wing voters not wanting a Liberal/NDP government, and moderate suburbanites being happy about spending on highways, etc. But by not passing this budget, they've opened themselves up to a lot of attacks on their credibility

[DistingFlyer]

On election night four years ago I'd never have believed that Doug Ford would be in a position to win a second term, but here we are and it looks like he just might.

Here's a graph of provincewide polls from the 2018 election to now; as the campaign continues I'll put one up that just shows data from that period:

[Continential]

If the Ontario Libs do well and get in first, what would their cabinet be given how many of their more experienced members have moved federally or have retired after 2018?

[beesley]

If the Ontario Libs do well and get in first, what would their cabinet be given how many of their more experienced members have moved federally or have retired after 2018?

Remember Rachel Notley's 2015 cabinet? Only 4/12 ministers (the only 4 incumbents, including herself) had served in the legislature before. The cabinet would expand throughout her term. Also, Del Duca made a big thing about diversity for his candidates - 50% women and a substantial number of visible minorities, so that would be a factor. There are a few people who have a very strong chance if they get in - Kate Graham in London North Centre and former MP Ted Hsu in Kingston springs to mind.

[LabourJersey]

Who has the momentum in Ontario right now? Ford, the Liberals, NDP or no one?

This seems like it *could* be a very fluid and unpredictable race, but I don't know enough about Ontarian politics to know that for certain

[adma]

*Could*.  But the initial indications seem to be Ford by status quo autopilot, barring something big jolt midcampaign.  (Yet because this is Ontario, such big jolts can never be ruled out.)

[toaster]

Should we play the shocking predictions game?

I'll go first..  Del Duca loses in his riding of Vaughan-Woodbridge.

[adma]

As things begin, Nanos is showing PC 36.9, Lib 30.4, NDP 23.7, Green 4.3--fairly consistent with recent figures.  (It'd be interesting if the Tories get more seats on less share, due to Lib inefficiency.)

[Hatman 🍁]

Should we play the shocking predictions game?

I'll go first..  Del Duca loses in his riding of Vaughan-Woodbridge.

That would not be shocking.

[King of Kensington]

York Region is the most Conservative region of the GTA now and Ford is popular among Italians, so it wouldn't be a shocker.  Plus the wealthier, more exurban and also very Italian King-Vaughan is very safe given that it flipped Conservative in the federal election.  So a Del Duca loss wouldn't be a shocker though he does have the advantage of better Liberal polling numbers and being a potential Premier that weren't there before plus the PC MPP incumbent's star faded long ago.

Remember too that Vaughan has been the bankroller of the Fords going even back to municipal days.

[toaster]

Shocking in the sense that even Kathleen Wynne won her seat as Liberal leader in the last election despite the party's dismal finish.  Has there ever been an Ontario Liberal leader (provincially) who has not won their own riding?  That would be pretty remarkable, at least historic. I would call those things shocking, but guess we all interpret things differently.

[DistingFlyer]

Shocking in the sense that even Kathleen Wynne won her seat as Liberal leader in the last election despite the party's dismal finish.  Has there ever been an Ontario Liberal leader (provincially) who has not won their own riding?  That would be pretty remarkable, at least historic. I would call those things shocking, but guess we all interpret things differently.

David Peterson in 1990 immediately springs to mind; I think you have to go back to Mitchell Hepburn in 1945 to find another one.

[DL]

Shocking in the sense that even Kathleen Wynne won her seat as Liberal leader in the last election despite the party's dismal finish.  Has there ever been an Ontario Liberal leader (provincially) who has not won their own riding?  That would be pretty remarkable, at least historic. I would call those things shocking, but guess we all interpret things differently.

Has there ever been an Ontario Liberal leader who had no seat going into an election and had to win a seat away from another party?

[DistingFlyer]

Shocking in the sense that even Kathleen Wynne won her seat as Liberal leader in the last election despite the party's dismal finish.  Has there ever been an Ontario Liberal leader (provincially) who has not won their own riding?  That would be pretty remarkable, at least historic. I would call those things shocking, but guess we all interpret things differently.

Has there ever been an Ontario Liberal leader who had no seat going into an election and had to win a seat away from another party?

Not until now.

[adma]

Shocking in the sense that even Kathleen Wynne won her seat as Liberal leader in the last election despite the party's dismal finish.  Has there ever been an Ontario Liberal leader (provincially) who has not won their own riding?  That would be pretty remarkable, at least historic. I would call those things shocking, but guess we all interpret things differently.

David Peterson in 1990 immediately springs to mind; I think you have to go back to Mitchell Hepburn in 1945 to find another one.

John Wintermeyer, 1963.

Of course, there's no reason to fixate upon this being a "Liberal thing"; think of John Tory in 2007 (versus one Kathleen Wynne--and of course, then there's his subsequent HKLB byelection disaster)

[DistingFlyer]

Shocking in the sense that even Kathleen Wynne won her seat as Liberal leader in the last election despite the party's dismal finish.  Has there ever been an Ontario Liberal leader (provincially) who has not won their own riding?  That would be pretty remarkable, at least historic. I would call those things shocking, but guess we all interpret things differently.

David Peterson in 1990 immediately springs to mind; I think you have to go back to Mitchell Hepburn in 1945 to find another one.

John Wintermeyer, 1963.

Quite right - not sure how I missed him.

[adma]

Another fabled Conservative leader to lose his own seat:  Premier George Drew in 1948 (to CCF temperance crusader Bill Temple).  And of course, the hapless Larry Grossman in 1987.

The NDP, though, hasn't seen defeated leadership since Ted Jolliffe (twice over) in the 40s and 50s.

[King of Kensington]

In every federal and provincial election since the reconfiguration of the map, the "downtown three" (Spadina-Fort York, Toronto Centre, University-Rosedale) have all voted the same way.  Will the streak continue?

[DistingFlyer]

Another fabled Conservative leader to lose his own seat:  Premier George Drew in 1948 (to CCF temperance crusader Bill Temple).  And of course, the hapless Larry Grossman in 1987.

The NDP, though, hasn't seen defeated leadership since Ted Jolliffe (twice over) in the 40s and 50s.

1948 was that very rare bird: a party winning the election but the leader losing personally. Other examples off the top of the head are Mackenzie King in 1945 (federal), Sir John A. Macdonald in 1878 (also federal), Don Getty in 1989 (Alberta) & Clyde Wells in 1989 (Newfoundland). No doubt there are plenty more.

Macdonald's loss in 1878 was perhaps the most curious: the Tories didn't just win that election, they went from opposition to government in one of their (then) biggest victories, up from one of their (then) biggest defeats in 1874, in which Macdonald had held his riding.

[King of Kensington]

1948 was that very rare bird: a party winning the election but the leader losing personally. Other examples off the top of the head are Mackenzie King in 1945 (federal), Sir John A. Macdonald in 1878 (also federal), Don Getty in 1989 (Alberta) & Clyde Wells in 1989 (Newfoundland). No doubt there are plenty more.

Macdonald's loss in 1878 was perhaps the most curious: the Tories didn't just win that election, they went from opposition to government in one of their (then) biggest victories, up from one of their (then) biggest defeats in 1874, in which Macdonald had held his riding.

And Christy Clark in 2013.

[DistingFlyer]

1948 was that very rare bird: a party winning the election but the leader losing personally. Other examples off the top of the head are Mackenzie King in 1945 (federal), Sir John A. Macdonald in 1878 (also federal), Don Getty in 1989 (Alberta) & Clyde Wells in 1989 (Newfoundland). No doubt there are plenty more.

Macdonald's loss in 1878 was perhaps the most curious: the Tories didn't just win that election, they went from opposition to government in one of their (then) biggest victories, up from one of their (then) biggest defeats in 1874, in which Macdonald had held his riding.

And Christy Clark in 2013.

Indeed; a leader's loss coinciding with an increased majority for the government is also pretty unusual.