Ontario Election 2022

[King of Kensington]

Nate Erskine-Smith votes on the right? He's pretty much as left as you can go as a Liberal before hitting NDP territory

A lot of NDP partisans really dislike NES because he's eaten their lunch in Beaches-East York.  He gets a higher share of the vote than Maria Minna did in the Chretien days.  His personal popularity and the "Brahmin Liberal-ization" of the Beaches has put the federal NDP out of contention there.  And I'm not sure if the seat can be held provincially either.

[mileslunn]

Nate Erskine-Smith votes on the right? He's pretty much as left as you can go as a Liberal before hitting NDP territory

A lot of NDP partisans really dislike NES because he's eaten their lunch in Beaches-East York.  He gets a higher share of the vote than Maria Minna did in the Chretien days.  His personal popularity and the "Brahmin Liberal-ization" of the Beaches has put the federal NDP out of contention there.  And I'm not sure if the seat can be held provincially either.

People also like him because he speaks his mind and is willing to disagree with his party from time to time.  Parties hate people like that, but voters like it.  Same reason Wayne Long has held Tories close to 2015 levels in Saint John-Rothesay unlike rest of Atlantic Canada where big rebound.

[toaster]

Nate Erskine-Smith votes on the right? He's pretty much as left as you can go as a Liberal before hitting NDP territory

A lot of NDP partisans really dislike NES because he's eaten their lunch in Beaches-East York.  He gets a higher share of the vote than Maria Minna did in the Chretien days.  His personal popularity and the "Brahmin Liberal-ization" of the Beaches has put the federal NDP out of contention there.  And I'm not sure if the seat can be held provincially either.

I think it's the faux liberalism approach for me. I think it's weird for you to mention that NDP partisans would be upset because 'he's eaten their lunch', Who would expect any different?  Wealthy white people vote for someone just like them to represent them. That's like saying Liberal partisans in Lanark-Frontenac dislike Randy Hillier for eating their lunch?  The demographics are quite clearly there for him to win. White rich Liberals who want to keep their wealth, don't want to help out those in lower income tax brackets if it means they have to pay.  Campaign on being compassionate, open, wanting to help others, but don't do anything to create pathways to equity (financial or otherwise). The way I see it, that is the unspoken NES and Brad Bradford brand. Understand that it's relevant and beneficial to remain liberal for optics, but to maintain wealth, govern different.

[beesley]

Also curious to know if Kevin Yarde is seeking re-election in Brampton North?  I don't think that has been announced yet.

He's facing a nomination challenge from someone called Sandeep Singh.

I'm quite familiar with the inner workings of the NDP and I can assure that incumbents do not face nominations unless it has the blessing of party HQ.  

Do you have any idea why Yarde in particular would be targeted in that way? He would've been one of the last people I'd expect to receive one; he certainly seemed a stronger MPP than many of his colleagues. So perhaps a personal issue or dispute? Or wanting an Asian candidate in the riding (which would strike me as a pretty poor reason).

[King of Kensington]

No idea, he doesn't seem like anybody who rocked the boat or anything.  Brampton also has a sizeable Black population, and the Ontario NDP did quite well in the Black Canadians last time.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Wait, when did the Ontario Liberals change their logo to...this?



I know logos are pretty meaningless in the grand scheme of things (and bad logos aren't all that uncommon in CanPoli), but good lord, could they not come up with something better?

[King of Kensington]

I think it's the faux liberalism approach for me. I think it's weird for you to mention that NDP partisans would be upset because 'he's eaten their lunch', Who would expect any different?  Wealthy white people vote for someone just like them to represent them. That's like saying Liberal partisans in Lanark-Frontenac dislike Randy Hillier for eating their lunch?  The demographics are quite clearly there for him to win. White rich Liberals who want to keep their wealth, don't want to help out those in lower income tax brackets if it means they have to pay.  Campaign on being compassionate, open, wanting to help others, but don't do anything to create pathways to equity (financial or otherwise). The way I see it, that is the unspoken NES and Brad Bradford brand. Understand that it's relevant and beneficial to remain liberal for optics, but to maintain wealth, govern different.

Don't really get the Randy Hillier comparison.  NES appeals to a lot of people who might be open to voting NDP, I don't think Hillier had an appeal to Liberal voters whatsoever.  

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think it's the faux liberalism approach for me. I think it's weird for you to mention that NDP partisans would be upset because 'he's eaten their lunch', Who would expect any different?  Wealthy white people vote for someone just like them to represent them. That's like saying Liberal partisans in Lanark-Frontenac dislike Randy Hillier for eating their lunch?  The demographics are quite clearly there for him to win. White rich Liberals who want to keep their wealth, don't want to help out those in lower income tax brackets if it means they have to pay.  Campaign on being compassionate, open, wanting to help others, but don't do anything to create pathways to equity (financial or otherwise). The way I see it, that is the unspoken NES and Brad Bradford brand. Understand that it's relevant and beneficial to remain liberal for optics, but to maintain wealth, govern different.

Don't really get the Randy Hillier comparison.  NES appeals to a lot of people who might be open to voting NDP, I don't think Hillier had an appeal to Liberal voters whatsoever.  

"Got I hate that Randy Hillier guy! He steals Liberal votes by sounding like a Liberal but legislating like a Tory!"

- No Liberal voter, ever

[adma]

Nate Erskine-Smith votes on the right? He's pretty much as left as you can go as a Liberal before hitting NDP territory

A lot of NDP partisans really dislike NES because he's eaten their lunch in Beaches-East York.  He gets a higher share of the vote than Maria Minna did in the Chretien days.  His personal popularity and the "Brahmin Liberal-ization" of the Beaches has put the federal NDP out of contention there.  And I'm not sure if the seat can be held provincially either.

If it *can* be held provincially, it'd be in the event that the OLP is still in recovery mode from '18, and the NDP can nominate somebody w/more "moderate appeal" than Rima.

However, the Lib candidate, Mary-Margaret McMahon, is probably as good as it gets *there*, and somebody w/a municipal record to match NES in eating the NDP's lunch...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

A better comparison for NES might actually be Ralph Goodale. The guy just kept winning and winning in a province where being a Liberal candidate usually only wins you a participation trophy. Of course, he kept winning until he lost. Being in Trudeau's cabinet did him no favours in Regina.

Anyway, back to OnPoli. An interesting by-product of the 2018 election is that universal swings are gonna be really bad at predicting Liberal strength. In 2018, personal brand played a big role in the few ridings where the Liberals didn't get absolutely humiliated.

For example, 338Canada says Eglinton-Lawrence will be the 5th most Liberal-friendly seat in the 416, that Mississauga-Lakeshore is the most Liberal-friendly seat in Mississauga, and that Oakville is more likely to go Liberal than Ajax.

Obviously, universal swings are never perfect, but the ridings I mentioned are typically much less Liberal than their surroundings. Expect to see some really bad riding projections this time out.

[King of Kensington]

According to "projections", Del Duca was supposed to one of the Liberals to survive when they lost official party status.

[King of Kensington]

If it *can* be held provincially, it'd be in the event that the OLP is still in recovery mode from '18, and the NDP can nominate somebody w/more "moderate appeal" than Rima.

However, the Lib candidate, Mary-Margaret McMahon, is probably as good as it gets *there*, and somebody w/a municipal record to match NES in eating the NDP's lunch...

Rima is interesting.  She's a "woke" social justice-y academic, but her husband is a banker and a long-time fundraiser for the federal Liberals.

[mileslunn]

A better comparison for NES might actually be Ralph Goodale. The guy just kept winning and winning in a province where being a Liberal candidate usually only wins you a participation trophy. Of course, he kept winning until he lost. Being in Trudeau's cabinet did him no favours in Regina.

Anyway, back to OnPoli. An interesting by-product of the 2018 election is that universal swings are gonna be really bad at predicting Liberal strength. In 2018, personal brand played a big role in the few ridings where the Liberals didn't get absolutely humiliated.

For example, 338Canada says Eglinton-Lawrence will be the 5th most Liberal-friendly seat in the 416, that Mississauga-Lakeshore is the most Liberal-friendly seat in Mississauga, and that Oakville is more likely to go Liberal than Ajax.

Obviously, universal swings are never perfect, but the ridings I mentioned are typically much less Liberal than their surroundings. Expect to see some really bad riding projections this time out.

I think looking at history of riding and demographics as well as issues of day probably a better predictor than uniform swing.  Uniform swing largely a British thing anyways where it seemed to work in past although they now use a thing called MRP, but those polls are expensive and usually survey 10K to 20K thus why they can accurately call ridings.  I don't believe anyone is willing to pay a pollster that much.  They probably do this for parties, which cost a lot of money, but never public.

[beesley]

A better comparison for NES might actually be Ralph Goodale. The guy just kept winning and winning in a province where being a Liberal candidate usually only wins you a participation trophy. Of course, he kept winning until he lost. Being in Trudeau's cabinet did him no favours in Regina.

Anyway, back to OnPoli. An interesting by-product of the 2018 election is that universal swings are gonna be really bad at predicting Liberal strength. In 2018, personal brand played a big role in the few ridings where the Liberals didn't get absolutely humiliated.

For example, 338Canada says Eglinton-Lawrence will be the 5th most Liberal-friendly seat in the 416, that Mississauga-Lakeshore is the most Liberal-friendly seat in Mississauga, and that Oakville is more likely to go Liberal than Ajax.

Obviously, universal swings are never perfect, but the ridings I mentioned are typically much less Liberal than their surroundings. Expect to see some really bad riding projections this time out.

I think looking at history of riding and demographics as well as issues of day probably a better predictor than uniform swing.  Uniform swing largely a British thing anyways where it seemed to work in past although they now use a thing called MRP, but those polls are expensive and usually survey 10K to 20K thus why they can accurately call ridings.  I don't believe anyone is willing to pay a pollster that much.  They probably do this for parties, which cost a lot of money, but never public.

MRP is a polling method designed to provide you with those more accurate demographic projections. Uniform Swing doesn't have anything to do with the way the polls are carried out. And on the point of public polls, the YouGov MRP was probably the biggest poll of the 2017 election - and memorable as being the only actual pollster who was remotely correct (other than the Exit Poll itself, if you want to count that).

[adma]

A better comparison for NES might actually be Ralph Goodale. The guy just kept winning and winning in a province where being a Liberal candidate usually only wins you a participation trophy. Of course, he kept winning until he lost. Being in Trudeau's cabinet did him no favours in Regina.

Actually, I don't see it, because being Lib in Toronto isn't anywhere as "weird" as being Lib in Sask is--and particularly in an era when the Justin Libs have been sweeping Toronto much as the Chretien Libs did a generation ago, there's nothing exceptional about NES's electoral performance, he's part of the Justin Lib wallpaper.  Besides, we're further now than we were a generation ago from when East Toronto was Hogtown's WWC hub and hence a hub for old-school CCF/NDP support and infrastructure.  And with that shift away from the NDP left has also come a shift away from the populist right; it's much more of an "urban middle" riding now than it was at any point in the c20.

The truer Ontario version of Ralph Goodale would be somebody like Jim Bradley, who kept winning and winning for the provincial Libs in St Catharines until he lost in '18, and in a riding which otherwise might have gone for Rae/Harris-style waves (and was federally never particularly Lib-exceptional, was Reform/Alliance-targeted and then represented by HarperCon from '06-15).

NES might be astute, but it's jumping the gun to call him Goodale-like.  And besides, there's also the case of the idiosyncratic Lib populism (maybe less NES-like than Rob Ford/Ralph Klein-like) that allowed Dennis Mills to hang on to Broadview-Greenwood/Toronto-Danforth from '88 until Jack Layton unseated him (with difficulty) in '04.

Anyway, back to OnPoli. An interesting by-product of the 2018 election is that universal swings are gonna be really bad at predicting Liberal strength. In 2018, personal brand played a big role in the few ridings where the Liberals didn't get absolutely humiliated.

For example, 338Canada says Eglinton-Lawrence will be the 5th most Liberal-friendly seat in the 416, that Mississauga-Lakeshore is the most Liberal-friendly seat in Mississauga, and that Oakville is more likely to go Liberal than Ajax.

Obviously, universal swings are never perfect, but the ridings I mentioned are typically much less Liberal than their surroundings. Expect to see some really bad riding projections this time out.

I agree about that kind of universal-swingism being a crock.  However, it does touch upon how the '18 Ontario election was much more "UK-like" in that there really was a "Labour vs Lib Dem" dynamic going--and in that sense, the ridings you mention are definitely much more *Lib Dem* than their surroundings, when it comes to strategic anti-Ford options.  So if the OLP are destined to remain a Lib Dem-ish 3rd party (which they already are in seat numbers), they probably *would* be hyperfocussing upon the Oakvilles and Mississauga-Lakeshores. 

Remember that there's 2 potential Liberal identities--the big-tent macro-identity, and the more "left option where NDP's not viable" micro-identity.  (Which'd also presuppose that the NDP might/should/ought to have the infrastructure to actually be viable in Mississauga, the way they are in Burnaby or Surrey.  Yeah, easier said, etc.  That's how presumptions that Ford has this election in the bag come to roost)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think it's the faux liberalism approach for me. I think it's weird for you to mention that NDP partisans would be upset because 'he's eaten their lunch', Who would expect any different?  Wealthy white people vote for someone just like them to represent them. That's like saying Liberal partisans in Lanark-Frontenac dislike Randy Hillier for eating their lunch?  The demographics are quite clearly there for him to win. White rich Liberals who want to keep their wealth, don't want to help out those in lower income tax brackets if it means they have to pay.  Campaign on being compassionate, open, wanting to help others, but don't do anything to create pathways to equity (financial or otherwise). The way I see it, that is the unspoken NES and Brad Bradford brand. Understand that it's relevant and beneficial to remain liberal for optics, but to maintain wealth, govern different.

Don't really get the Randy Hillier comparison.  NES appeals to a lot of people who might be open to voting NDP, I don't think Hillier had an appeal to Liberal voters whatsoever.  

"Got I hate that Randy Hillier guy! He steals Liberal votes by sounding like a Liberal but legislating like a Tory!"

- No Liberal voter, ever

He's a classical liberal.

[toaster]

I think it's the faux liberalism approach for me. I think it's weird for you to mention that NDP partisans would be upset because 'he's eaten their lunch', Who would expect any different?  Wealthy white people vote for someone just like them to represent them. That's like saying Liberal partisans in Lanark-Frontenac dislike Randy Hillier for eating their lunch?  The demographics are quite clearly there for him to win. White rich Liberals who want to keep their wealth, don't want to help out those in lower income tax brackets if it means they have to pay.  Campaign on being compassionate, open, wanting to help others, but don't do anything to create pathways to equity (financial or otherwise). The way I see it, that is the unspoken NES and Brad Bradford brand. Understand that it's relevant and beneficial to remain liberal for optics, but to maintain wealth, govern different.

Don't really get the Randy Hillier comparison.  NES appeals to a lot of people who might be open to voting NDP, I don't think Hillier had an appeal to Liberal voters whatsoever.  

Was being facetious, the point being that it's not a shock to anyone (including NDPers) that BEY votes Liberal given the demographics of the riding.

[King of Kensington]

For example, 338Canada says Eglinton-Lawrence will be the 5th most Liberal-friendly seat in the 416,

Eglinton-Lawrence is just about the lowest hanging fruit for the OLP.

Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre have voted the same way provincially since the mirroring of federal/provincial in 1999 and federally since Eglinton-Lawrence was established in 1979 (and both Wilson Heights and Lawrence ridings stayed Liberal in 1990 when the NDP won).  But you could see the pulling apart in the last provincial election, where the Libs nearly hung in Eg-Law but York Centre went full on Ford Nation.  The difference of course is that while both contain Jewish/Italian/Filipino/multicultural North York, Eg-Law also has the countervailing North Toronto part.  Mike Colle lost significant ground to Ford Nation in his old base in the western part of the riding, but won the North Toronto polls by a very wide margin which almost saved him.

While both York Centre and Eglinton-Lawrence are around 20% Jewish, York Centre is more commonly thought of as the "Jewish riding" and elected more Jewish politicians for some reason.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I agree about that kind of universal-swingism being a crock.  However, it does touch upon how the '18 Ontario election was much more "UK-like" in that there really was a "Labour vs Lib Dem" dynamic going--and in that sense, the ridings you mention are definitely much more *Lib Dem* than their surroundings, when it comes to strategic anti-Ford options.  So if the OLP are destined to remain a Lib Dem-ish 3rd party (which they already are in seat numbers), they probably *would* be hyperfocussing upon the Oakvilles and Mississauga-Lakeshores. 

Remember that there's 2 potential Liberal identities--the big-tent macro-identity, and the more "left option where NDP's not viable" micro-identity.  (Which'd also presuppose that the NDP might/should/ought to have the infrastructure to actually be viable in Mississauga, the way they are in Burnaby or Surrey.  Yeah, easier said, etc.  That's how presumptions that Ford has this election in the bag come to roost)

The "UK-like dynamic" was certainly there in 2018, but it wasn't that clear-cut. Just in the 416, there were some "Lib Dem"-type ridings like DVW, Eglinton Lawrence, St. Paul's, where the Libs did well, but they also had good numbers in lower-income Liberal strongholds - Scarborough-Guildwood, York South-Weston, Humber River-Black Creek, and DVE come to mind.

Outside the 416, Liberals were relatively strong in more "bourgeois professional class" places like Mississauga Lakeshore, Oakville, Orleans, etc. But they still did pretty well in the likes of St. Catharines, Peterborough-Kawartha, Ottawa-Vanier, and the Thunder Bay ridings, which have more of a "Labour" demographic than "Lib Dem" (Orleans and Ottawa-Vanier are weird though, a lot of their loyal Liberalism comes from the francophone presence - but certainly there is a notable class difference between those two ridings).

The common thread between the ridings where the Libs did well were strong incumbents. Indeed, Wynne's last minute gambit of "I'm not going to be premier" might have helped those incumbents. That factor won't be present in this election.

I guess you're right that if the Liberals were to resign themselves to being the third-place party in OnPoli, they'd do well to go for the "Lib Dem" niche, which neither the Tories nor the NDP have a natural appeal to. But I think the OLP would be really stupid to limit themselves like that when they're basically neck-and-neck with the NDP in the polls

[CumbrianLefty]

A better comparison for NES might actually be Ralph Goodale. The guy just kept winning and winning in a province where being a Liberal candidate usually only wins you a participation trophy. Of course, he kept winning until he lost. Being in Trudeau's cabinet did him no favours in Regina.

Anyway, back to OnPoli. An interesting by-product of the 2018 election is that universal swings are gonna be really bad at predicting Liberal strength. In 2018, personal brand played a big role in the few ridings where the Liberals didn't get absolutely humiliated.

For example, 338Canada says Eglinton-Lawrence will be the 5th most Liberal-friendly seat in the 416, that Mississauga-Lakeshore is the most Liberal-friendly seat in Mississauga, and that Oakville is more likely to go Liberal than Ajax.

Obviously, universal swings are never perfect, but the ridings I mentioned are typically much less Liberal than their surroundings. Expect to see some really bad riding projections this time out.

I think looking at history of riding and demographics as well as issues of day probably a better predictor than uniform swing.  Uniform swing largely a British thing anyways where it seemed to work in past although they now use a thing called MRP, but those polls are expensive and usually survey 10K to 20K thus why they can accurately call ridings.  I don't believe anyone is willing to pay a pollster that much.  They probably do this for parties, which cost a lot of money, but never public.

MRP is a polling method designed to provide you with those more accurate demographic projections. Uniform Swing doesn't have anything to do with the way the polls are carried out. And on the point of public polls, the YouGov MRP was probably the biggest poll of the 2017 election - and memorable as being the only actual pollster who was remotely correct (other than the Exit Poll itself, if you want to count that).

Survation says hi.

Most notable is that both were openly laughed at in public by certain other pollsters - at least a few of whom almost went out of business due to the scale of their polling failure then.

[adma]

I agree about that kind of universal-swingism being a crock.  However, it does touch upon how the '18 Ontario election was much more "UK-like" in that there really was a "Labour vs Lib Dem" dynamic going--and in that sense, the ridings you mention are definitely much more *Lib Dem* than their surroundings, when it comes to strategic anti-Ford options.  So if the OLP are destined to remain a Lib Dem-ish 3rd party (which they already are in seat numbers), they probably *would* be hyperfocussing upon the Oakvilles and Mississauga-Lakeshores. 

Remember that there's 2 potential Liberal identities--the big-tent macro-identity, and the more "left option where NDP's not viable" micro-identity.  (Which'd also presuppose that the NDP might/should/ought to have the infrastructure to actually be viable in Mississauga, the way they are in Burnaby or Surrey.  Yeah, easier said, etc.  That's how presumptions that Ford has this election in the bag come to roost)

The "UK-like dynamic" was certainly there in 2018, but it wasn't that clear-cut. Just in the 416, there were some "Lib Dem"-type ridings like DVW, Eglinton Lawrence, St. Paul's, where the Libs did well, but they also had good numbers in lower-income Liberal strongholds - Scarborough-Guildwood, York South-Weston, Humber River-Black Creek, and DVE come to mind.

Outside the 416, Liberals were relatively strong in more "bourgeois professional class" places like Mississauga Lakeshore, Oakville, Orleans, etc. But they still did pretty well in the likes of St. Catharines, Peterborough-Kawartha, Ottawa-Vanier, and the Thunder Bay ridings, which have more of a "Labour" demographic than "Lib Dem" (Orleans and Ottawa-Vanier are weird though, a lot of their loyal Liberalism comes from the francophone presence - but certainly there is a notable class difference between those two ridings).

The common thread between the ridings where the Libs did well were strong incumbents. Indeed, Wynne's last minute gambit of "I'm not going to be premier" might have helped those incumbents. That factor won't be present in this election.

I guess you're right that if the Liberals were to resign themselves to being the third-place party in OnPoli, they'd do well to go for the "Lib Dem" niche, which neither the Tories nor the NDP have a natural appeal to. But I think the OLP would be really stupid to limit themselves like that when they're basically neck-and-neck with the NDP in the polls

Which is why I didn't couch my "Lib Dem" analysis in terms of concrete recommendation--more as a combination of "worst case scenario/low end realism" (a la what's traditionally guided the NDP in *its* 3rd-party-marginal years) and as a second-guessing of the logic behind those doing the projecting.  Which also has its echoes in various low points in other provinces (i.e. Manitoba, where they're a provincial rump viably confined to River Heights-type places, a few Lamoureux-type mavericks, and sometimes Francophone St Boniface), or the way the federal Libs *looked to be* going in some eyes after the '11 Iggy disaster, as opposed to where they actually *did* go under Justin.  So if there's a Lib Dem analogy, it's more w/where the Lib Dems had come by the Kennedy/Clegg cusp when they were still firmly 3rd party at least when it came to seat potential, but a whole lot of weird random "next tier up" looked within reach.

Under the circumstance, I don't see a lot of the "good numbers" situations you list as being good *enough*, as opposed to vestigial from long-term or incumbent advantage--3rd place in HRBC and YSW could just as well be read as being on a down-periscope trajectory, and hanging on in Scarborough-Guildwood might be seen as more of an exceptional "Sarah Teather" thing.  DVE is also more "middle" than "lower" in overall profile (i.e. not precisely as far down the bourgeois-professional road as DVW, but simply not "Tory" or "Dipper" enough to counteract the "safe middle"), while even St Kitts & Peterborough have their bourgeois/professional undercurrent through being central-city ridings with a campus/educated-class element.  And both Francophone and TB could be argued in terms of "Celtic fringe" exceptionality.

So again: as I said, *if* '18 were not only reflective of, but foretelling of, a Lab vs Lib Dem dynamic (and "foretelling of" is what knocks some of those '18 "good numbers" out of the picture).  But *also*, as I indicated, it'd require the ONDP to actually have a stronger Labour-esque machine in place; and there's no evidence so far that the NDP's poised to Orange Crush the non-Lakeshore Mississauga seats, which is *really* what's required if the OLP is truly in eclipse and the PCs have any chance of defeat.  Yet if one went through '18's figures w/a fine-toothed comb, one could surmise some of these "paths potentially followable", regardless of whether the parties in question are up to it.  (Plus, monkey-in-the-middle political forces like Lib Dems are notoriously difficult to account for through conventional "swing projection"--a lot of 2010's most bone-headed UK prognoses came through misreadings of Lib Dem strength due to redistribution-skewed notional 2005 figures.)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I agree about that kind of universal-swingism being a crock.  However, it does touch upon how the '18 Ontario election was much more "UK-like" in that there really was a "Labour vs Lib Dem" dynamic going--and in that sense, the ridings you mention are definitely much more *Lib Dem* than their surroundings, when it comes to strategic anti-Ford options.  So if the OLP are destined to remain a Lib Dem-ish 3rd party (which they already are in seat numbers), they probably *would* be hyperfocussing upon the Oakvilles and Mississauga-Lakeshores. 

Remember that there's 2 potential Liberal identities--the big-tent macro-identity, and the more "left option where NDP's not viable" micro-identity.  (Which'd also presuppose that the NDP might/should/ought to have the infrastructure to actually be viable in Mississauga, the way they are in Burnaby or Surrey.  Yeah, easier said, etc.  That's how presumptions that Ford has this election in the bag come to roost)

The "UK-like dynamic" was certainly there in 2018, but it wasn't that clear-cut. Just in the 416, there were some "Lib Dem"-type ridings like DVW, Eglinton Lawrence, St. Paul's, where the Libs did well, but they also had good numbers in lower-income Liberal strongholds - Scarborough-Guildwood, York South-Weston, Humber River-Black Creek, and DVE come to mind.

Outside the 416, Liberals were relatively strong in more "bourgeois professional class" places like Mississauga Lakeshore, Oakville, Orleans, etc. But they still did pretty well in the likes of St. Catharines, Peterborough-Kawartha, Ottawa-Vanier, and the Thunder Bay ridings, which have more of a "Labour" demographic than "Lib Dem" (Orleans and Ottawa-Vanier are weird though, a lot of their loyal Liberalism comes from the francophone presence - but certainly there is a notable class difference between those two ridings).

The common thread between the ridings where the Libs did well were strong incumbents. Indeed, Wynne's last minute gambit of "I'm not going to be premier" might have helped those incumbents. That factor won't be present in this election.

I guess you're right that if the Liberals were to resign themselves to being the third-place party in OnPoli, they'd do well to go for the "Lib Dem" niche, which neither the Tories nor the NDP have a natural appeal to. But I think the OLP would be really stupid to limit themselves like that when they're basically neck-and-neck with the NDP in the polls

Which is why I didn't couch my "Lib Dem" analysis in terms of concrete recommendation--more as a combination of "worst case scenario/low end realism" (a la what's traditionally guided the NDP in *its* 3rd-party-marginal years) and as a second-guessing of the logic behind those doing the projecting.  Which also has its echoes in various low points in other provinces (i.e. Manitoba, where they're a provincial rump viably confined to River Heights-type places, a few Lamoureux-type mavericks, and sometimes Francophone St Boniface), or the way the federal Libs *looked to be* going in some eyes after the '11 Iggy disaster, as opposed to where they actually *did* go under Justin.  So if there's a Lib Dem analogy, it's more w/where the Lib Dems had come by the Kennedy/Clegg cusp when they were still firmly 3rd party at least when it came to seat potential, but a whole lot of weird random "next tier up" looked within reach.

Under the circumstance, I don't see a lot of the "good numbers" situations you list as being good *enough*, as opposed to vestigial from long-term or incumbent advantage--3rd place in HRBC and YSW could just as well be read as being on a down-periscope trajectory, and hanging on in Scarborough-Guildwood might be seen as more of an exceptional "Sarah Teather" thing.  DVE is also more "middle" than "lower" in overall profile (i.e. not precisely as far down the bourgeois-professional road as DVW, but simply not "Tory" or "Dipper" enough to counteract the "safe middle"), while even St Kitts & Peterborough have their bourgeois/professional undercurrent through being central-city ridings with a campus/educated-class element.  And both Francophone and TB could be argued in terms of "Celtic fringe" exceptionality.

So again: as I said, *if* '18 were not only reflective of, but foretelling of, a Lab vs Lib Dem dynamic (and "foretelling of" is what knocks some of those '18 "good numbers" out of the picture).  But *also*, as I indicated, it'd require the ONDP to actually have a stronger Labour-esque machine in place; and there's no evidence so far that the NDP's poised to Orange Crush the non-Lakeshore Mississauga seats, which is *really* what's required if the OLP is truly in eclipse and the PCs have any chance of defeat.  Yet if one went through '18's figures w/a fine-toothed comb, one could surmise some of these "paths potentially followable", regardless of whether the parties in question are up to it.  (Plus, monkey-in-the-middle political forces like Lib Dems are notoriously difficult to account for through conventional "swing projection"--a lot of 2010's most bone-headed UK prognoses came through misreadings of Lib Dem strength due to redistribution-skewed notional 2005 figures.)

You make a good point, if the Ontario Liberals are really destined for third place in Ontario, their best might be the Lib Dem coalition of brahmin liberals and unique minorities like Francophones, along with places where they have strong local organizations. I just have a hard time seeing that as a necessity, because the Liberal brand is still a strong one in Ontario. The Ashdown/Kennedy/Clegg formula for Lib Dem seats came about after many decades of playing third fiddle to the Tories and Labour, and like you mentioned, Labour always being able to finish comfortably in second when they lost elections. The NDP is not there yet in Ontario, and may never be, so the Grits should still put in the effort to go for more Labour-esque voters in this year's election.

[King of Kensington]

So again: as I said, *if* '18 were not only reflective of, but foretelling of, a Lab vs Lib Dem dynamic (and "foretelling of" is what knocks some of those '18 "good numbers" out of the picture).  But *also*, as I indicated, it'd require the ONDP to actually have a stronger Labour-esque machine in place; and there's no evidence so far that the NDP's poised to Orange Crush the non-Lakeshore Mississauga seats, which is *really* what's required if the OLP is truly in eclipse and the PCs have any chance of defeat. 

Yeah, if we're thinking BC-ization of Ontario politics, the NDP were able to take the Point Grey-esque St. Paul's, but they still can't break into the "regular" middle income suburbs like Coquitlam.

[adma]

You make a good point, if the Ontario Liberals are really destined for third place in Ontario, their best might be the Lib Dem coalition of brahmin liberals and unique minorities like Francophones, along with places where they have strong local organizations. I just have a hard time seeing that as a necessity, because the Liberal brand is still a strong one in Ontario. The Ashdown/Kennedy/Clegg formula for Lib Dem seats came about after many decades of playing third fiddle to the Tories and Labour, and like you mentioned, Labour always being able to finish comfortably in second when they lost elections. The NDP is not there yet in Ontario, and may never be, so the Grits should still put in the effort to go for more Labour-esque voters in this year's election.

And there's an additional Ontario constituency that doesn't neatly fall into the UK dynamic, i.e. that which Del Duca once represented and may well bid for again--the "York Region ethnoburb", the kind that in UK terms would be too aspirational for Labour, too polyglot for the Tories, and too un-Brahmin for the Lib Dems, and whose present park within the PC camp still feels more conditional than permanent-condition...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

You make a good point, if the Ontario Liberals are really destined for third place in Ontario, their best might be the Lib Dem coalition of brahmin liberals and unique minorities like Francophones, along with places where they have strong local organizations. I just have a hard time seeing that as a necessity, because the Liberal brand is still a strong one in Ontario. The Ashdown/Kennedy/Clegg formula for Lib Dem seats came about after many decades of playing third fiddle to the Tories and Labour, and like you mentioned, Labour always being able to finish comfortably in second when they lost elections. The NDP is not there yet in Ontario, and may never be, so the Grits should still put in the effort to go for more Labour-esque voters in this year's election.

And there's an additional Ontario constituency that doesn't neatly fall into the UK dynamic, i.e. that which Del Duca once represented and may well bid for again--the "York Region ethnoburb", the kind that in UK terms would be too aspirational for Labour, too polyglot for the Tories, and too un-Brahmin for the Lib Dems, and whose present park within the PC camp still feels more conditional than permanent-condition...

True, but Ford's Ontario is a different context. UK Tories are more nativist than Canadian (especially Ontarian) Tories, so the "too polyglot for the Tories" isn't as big a factor. In 2018, York was the quintessential Ford Nation region. Some of their strongest numbers were in York Region, Tory support in York RM was comparable to rural counties like Dufferin and Huron.

But York Region is interesting this time out. For one, the Liberal leader is from and running in Vaughan--Woodbridge. A "new money" car-centric Italian-Canadian suburb, you could hardly make up a more stereotypical "Ford Nation" riding than Woodbridge. But now Del Duca is running there as a leader, which spices things up.

The Markham ridings and Richmond Hill, along with Scarborough Agincourt/North and Don Valley North in the 416 will be interesting for a different reason. These places swung Liberal HARD in 2021, following the pattern of the Chinese-Canadian vote. But Chinese-Canadians were a key Ford bloc in 2018. Now I doubt the idiosyncrasies of the Chinese vote will translate cleanly between the federal and provincial levels, but I'm curious to see if there is evidence of a lasting damage to the Tory brand with this community. If there is, that's another unnecessary headache for the Tories in York Region and Scarborough.