Ontario Election 2022

[CumbrianLefty]

Was the PC candidate in Thornhill even Jewish? Might not be with a name like Smith. Do you think some Jews didn't show up because of this?

There are some Jews named Smith including former Ontario Liberal leader Stuart Smith

It really needs to be remembered that far from all Jews have "obviously" Jewish names.

[DistingFlyer]

Looking at the Tory gains, here's when they last won those ridings (or their nearest equivalents):

Brampton Centre - 1999
Brampton East - 1999 (as Bramalea - Gore - Malton - Springdale)
Brampton North - 1999 (as Brampton Centre)
Essex - 1959 (as Essex South)
Hamilton East - Stoney Creek - 1951 (as Wentworth)
Thunder Bay - Atikokan - 1985 (as Fort William)
Timmins - 1987 (as Cochrane South)
Windsor - Tecumseh - 1929 (as Essex North)
York South - Weston - 1951 (as York South)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though it does depend on which bit as some of those ridings don't have entirely clear predecessors. So a majority of the electorate of Hamilton East-Stoney Creek at the time of the creation of the riding lived in the former riding of Stoney Creek, which last elected a PC MPP in 1999.

[DistingFlyer]

Though it does depend on which bit as some of those ridings don't have entirely clear predecessors. So a majority of the electorate of Hamilton East-Stoney Creek at the time of the creation of the riding lived in the former riding of Stoney Creek, which last elected a PC MPP in 1999.

Quite true; I went with the earlier result as the 1999 Tory margin in Stoney Creek (5.6%) was far smaller than the Liberal lead in Hamilton East (31.5%).

[Krago]

Dumb question.  Where I can I find the most up-to-date Ontario election results by riding and candidate?

I downloaded each riding from Elections Ontario, but Canadian Press seems to have more polls reporting (e.g. Burlington).  But CP is missing data for some minor party candidates.

Any suggestions?

[DistingFlyer]

Looking back to 1934, these are what the different parties' best regions were at each election (in terms of their vote lead, not vote share, though the two usually went together):

[The definitions of each region are not exactly strict, and have changed over time, so others may come up with slightly different figures from those below - just wanted to point that out myself before a bunch of others did!]

Tories
1934 - GTA (-2.1%)
1937 - GTA (-2.4%)
1943 - East (+4.6%)
1945 - GTA (+18.1%)
1948 - East (+16.1%)
1951 - East (+19.8%)
1955 - East (+21.1%)
1959 - East (+16.7%)
1963 - East (+17.7%)
1967 - East (+19.8%)
1971 - East (+21.0%)
1975 - East (+9.0%)
1977 - East (+10.0%)
1981 - GTA (+21.4%) - their best regional lead in the last 90 years
1985 - North (+12.2%)
1987 - North (-13.4%) - their 'worst best' in the last 90 years
1990 - East (+12.2%)
1995 - GTA (+18.0%)
1999 - GTA (+7.9%)
2003 - East (-9.8%)
2007 - East (-5.9%)
2011 - East (+5.6%)
2014 - East (-1.2%)
2018 - East (+14.1%)
2022 - East (+14.4%)


Liberals
1934 - North (+17.9%)
1937 - West (+20.6%)
1943 - West (+0.0%)
1945 - North (-4.5%)
1948 - West (-4.5%)
1951 - North (-9.3%)
1955 - West (-9.3%)
1959 - West (-5.4%)
1963 - West (-9.4%)
1967 - West (-5.7%)
1971 - West (-7.0%)
1975 - West (+8.7%)
1977 - West (+7.6%)
1981 - West (+3.8%)
1985 - West (+10.6%)
1987 - GTA (+22.9%)
1990 - East (+8.6%)
1995 - North (+0.2%)
1999 - North (+12.4%)
2003 - North (+23.7%) - their best regional lead in the last 90 years
2007 - GTA (+15.2%)
2011 - GTA (+12.9%)
2014 - GTA (+17.8%)
2018 - GTA (-15.9%) - their 'worst best' in the last 90 years
2022 - GTA (-9.5%)


CCF/NDP
1934 - GTA (-29.8%)
1937 - GTA (-31.7%) - their 'worst best' in the last 90 years
1943 - North (+21.0%) - their best regional lead in the last 90 years
1945 - North (+4.5%)
1948 - GTA (-1.6%)
1951 - GTA (-17.6%)
1955 - GTA (-19.0%)
1959 - GTA (-18.1%)
1963 - North (-13.2%)
1967 - GTA (-7.1%)
1971 - North (-3.7%)
1975 - North (+4.5%)
1977 - North (-5.7%)
1981 - North (-14.6%)
1985 - GTA (-9.9%)
1987 - North (-4.3%)
1990 - West (+13.6%)
1995 - North (-4.8%)
1999 - North (-16.2%)
2003 - North (-23.7%)
2007 - North (-7.8%)
2011 - North (+7.5%)
2014 - North (+4.9%)
2018 - North (+12.0%)
2022 - North (-7.1%)

[DistingFlyer]

Dumb question.  Where I can I find the most up-to-date Ontario election results by riding and candidate?

I downloaded each riding from Elections Ontario, but Canadian Press seems to have more polls reporting (e.g. Burlington).  But CP is missing data for some minor party candidates.

Any suggestions?

Strange - the Elections Ontario figures were up-to-date yesterday (that is, each seat had all of its polls accounted for) but they don't seem to be now, although the links to the data are different.

My spreadsheet does have the riding information as complete as it can be right now (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=453425.msg8630731#msg8630731) though the minor parties (i.e. not PC, Liberal, NDP or Green) are all lumped into the 'other' column, which may not be what you want.

EDIT: Can also look here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16Yuhrvny4nC9oKoT-0lnAmS3Lhg1Qnm5/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=102460231885619043601&rtpof=true&sd=true); you can see the individual candidates' votes in the 'other' column, but not their party names.

[DistingFlyer]

Two new charts - first, the parties' vote share from 1934 to the present:



Second, the number of members elected over the same timeframe:

[King of Kensington]

There were two Jews elected:

https://thecjn.ca/news/michael-kerzner-will-be-the-newest-jewish-politician-at-queens-park-after-winning-a-seat-as-part-of-the-ontario-pc-election-sweep/

Remarkably, neither the Liberals or the PCs ran Jewish candidates in Thornhill.  

The most high profile Jewish candidate running for the Liberals, Nathan Stall in St. Paul's, lost to NDP incumbent Jill Andrew.  That riding looked like a no-brainer pickup, but the Liberal vote had tanked so significantly that they couldn't even win there and Jill Andrew's election proved to more than a fluke.

I don't think there's anything particularly distinct about the Jewish vote at the provincial level.   Suburban and more religious Jews vote PC, but there's obviously a large number of urban, liberal and progressive minded Jews who vote Liberal, NDP and Green.

[DistingFlyer]

Looking at the Tory gains, here's when they last won those ridings (or their nearest equivalents):

Brampton Centre - 1999
Brampton East - 1999 (as Bramalea - Gore - Malton - Springdale)
Brampton North - 1999 (as Brampton Centre)
Essex - 1959 (as Essex South)
Hamilton East - Stoney Creek - 1951 (as Wentworth)
Thunder Bay - Atikokan - 1985 (as Fort William)
Timmins - 1987 (as Cochrane South)
Windsor - Tecumseh - 1929 (as Essex North)
York South - Weston - 1951 (as York South)

Here are the other five ridings to flip:

NDP to Lib (2)
Beaches - East York (won by the Liberals in 2014; otherwise NDP since 1975)
Kingston & the Islands (won by the NDP only in 1990 & 2018; Liberal from 1995 through 2014)

Lib to NDP (1)
Thunder Bay - Superior North (last won by the NDP in 1990)

PC to NDP (1)
Ottawa West - Nepean (never held by the CCF or NDP before, but the UFO won there in 1919 - this breaks a longer losing streak than any of the Tory gains do)

PC to Ind (1)
Haldimand - Norfolk (held by the Tories since 1995)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Interesting to see the NDP lose in Timmins, Windsor-Tecumseh and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek but hold on in Oshawa and in Niagara Region.

In Windsor-Tecumseh and Hamilton East-SC, the NDP lost their incumbents (well in the latter he was kicked out and chose to run as an indy, so in a sense an even worse situation for the Dippers there). A common theme of the election was that incumbency really came in clutch for the NDP. In most ridings with NDP incumbents (not all, not in Brampton for example), the PC vote stayed relatively constant, but the Liberals failed to make gains and actually lost support in many cases, helping the NDP.

Timmins was a very, very exceptional one. With the popular mayor running for the PCs, and Ford putting an effort into winning the north, I could have imagined Bisson narrowly losing, which itself would have been somewhat of an upset seeing as he's held that seat for 32 straight years, even during the Howard Hampton years. I absolutely did not expect him to go down in such a landslide, or that somehow Oshawa would stay orange while Timmins goes blue. But again, northern Ontario is kind of a world of its own.

[DistingFlyer]

Swings for the 2022 election:



And for the 2018 election:

[adma]

It seems like a lot of these swings to/from reflect the nature of the opposition party--like, Whitby standing out as a "blue" seat owing something to the technicality of the diminished NDP remaining the 2nd place party there, as opposed to other 905 seats where the Libs dead-cat-bounced back into 2nd or a more robust 2nd place position than in '18.

And that Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke is orange might be a bit the Tories coming down a bit from the 70+ stratosphere and a bit of bolstered NDP energy from their surprise 2nd place federal run last year.  And in the latter case:  who knows if there *is* still life in NDP-style "frontier populism", countering the red wall attrition and all.  (Though speaking of that: for all the political "deficits" ascribed to Andrea Horwath, who knows if the Steeltown Scrapper would wind up the party's last true "labour leader" if the party winds up going further in an urban-left direction.)

[mileslunn]

Anyone have breakdown of how regions voted?

I was thinking for main regions

416 - Toronto
905 belt
Hamilton-Niagara
Central Ontario
Southwestern Ontario
Northern Ontario
Eastern Ontario

For sub-regions

Durham
York
Peel
Halton
Hamilton
Niagara
Waterloo
London
Essex County
Ottawa
Eastern Ontario outside Ottawa

[DistingFlyer]

It seems like a lot of these swings to/from reflect the nature of the opposition party--like, Whitby standing out as a "blue" seat owing something to the technicality of the diminished NDP remaining the 2nd place party there, as opposed to other 905 seats where the Libs dead-cat-bounced back into 2nd or a more robust 2nd place position than in '18.

You can see the same thing in the 2018 map, where the darkest ridings are 2014 Liberal ones (and the swings illustrated are the large Lib-PC or Lib-NDP ones); in contrast, seats already held by the Tories or NDP usually have PC-NDP swings (unless the Liberals managed to hold on to second place), which tended to be smaller as the two parties grew at a similar rate in that election.

I did make separate 2018 maps for the Lib-NDP, Lib-PC and PC-NDP swings; once the 2022 results have been finalized I might do the same for that election.

[DistingFlyer]

. . . and here are those maps illustrating the different kinds of swing in 2018:

Lib-PC


Lib-NDP


PC-NDP

[DistingFlyer]

Anyone have breakdown of how regions voted?

I was thinking for main regions

416 - Toronto
905 belt
Hamilton-Niagara
Central Ontario
Southwestern Ontario
Northern Ontario
Eastern Ontario

For sub-regions

Durham
York
Peel
Halton
Hamilton
Niagara
Waterloo
London
Essex County
Ottawa
Eastern Ontario outside Ottawa

I have figures for some of those:

Metro Toronto (416)
PC - 12 MPPs (+1), 32.2% (-0.6%)
NDP - 9 MPPs (-2), 27.9% (-8.6%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 31.9% (+5.7%)

Rest of GTA (905)
PC - 29 MPPs (+3), 46.8% (+1.1%)
NDP - 1 MPP (-3), 14.4% (-12.3%)
Lib - 30.3% (+7.6%)

Eastern
PC - 13 MPPs (-1), 41.2% (-1.4%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 26.8% (+3.7%)
NDP - 2 MPPs, 21.9% (-6.6%)

Northern
NDP - 7 MPPs (-1), 33.4% (-10.9%)
PC - 6 MPPs (+2), 40.5% (+8.3%)
Lib - 11.4% (-4.2%)

The Tory vote dropped the most in Eastern Ontario, as Ottawa continues to drift away from them and the New Blue & Ontario Parties took a bite out of their rural vote.

The Tory vote rose the most in Northern Ontario; in 2018 they went up more than the provincial average (though not the most of any region), illustrating the trend that I've discussed on federal-themed threads here about that region beginning to trend towards the Tories after many years of being weak for them.


Looking at the two biggest blocs, the GTA and the rest, they break down thus:

GTA
PC - 41 MPPs (+4), 40.5% (+0.4%)
NDP - 10 MPPs (-5), 20.2% (-10.7%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 31.0% (+6.8%)

Rest of Ontario
PC - 42 MPPs (+3), 41.1% (+0.3%)
NDP - 21 MPPs (-4), 26.3% (-9.4%)
Lib - 4 MPPs, 18.6% (+2.6%)

[Central Lake]

Looking at the Tory gains, here's when they last won those ridings (or their nearest equivalents):

Brampton Centre - 1999
Brampton East - 1999 (as Bramalea - Gore - Malton - Springdale)
Brampton North - 1999 (as Brampton Centre)
Essex - 1959 (as Essex South)
Hamilton East - Stoney Creek - 1951 (as Wentworth)
Thunder Bay - Atikokan - 1985 (as Fort William)
Timmins - 1987 (as Cochrane South)
Windsor - Tecumseh - 1929 (as Essex North)
York South - Weston - 1951 (as York South)

Interesting. Taking note of adma's post When did the following ridings (or nearest equivalents) last go Tory provincially?
Niagara Falls
Niagara Centre
Nickel Belt
Timmins Cochrane
Algoma Manitoulin

[adma]

Looking at the Tory gains, here's when they last won those ridings (or their nearest equivalents):

Brampton Centre - 1999
Brampton East - 1999 (as Bramalea - Gore - Malton - Springdale)
Brampton North - 1999 (as Brampton Centre)
Essex - 1959 (as Essex South)
Hamilton East - Stoney Creek - 1951 (as Wentworth)
Thunder Bay - Atikokan - 1985 (as Fort William)
Timmins - 1987 (as Cochrane South)
Windsor - Tecumseh - 1929 (as Essex North)
York South - Weston - 1951 (as York South)

Interesting. Taking note of adma's post When did the following ridings (or nearest equivalents) last go Tory provincially?
Niagara Falls
Niagara Centre
Nickel Belt
Timmins Cochrane
Algoma Manitoulin

Of course, a lot of these are amalgams which might have aligned differently under certain circumstances in the past.  But Niagara Falls was Harris Tory; the S part of Niagara Centre was Tim Hudak's toehold into the legislature under Mike Harris (the N part was Tory before Mel Swart claimed it for the NDP in '75--ironically, the S part was *Liberal* under Ray Haggerty then); Nickel Belt was last Tory in '67; virtually the entire Timiskaming-Cochrane stretch was Tory as late as '81; and the Algoma-Manitoulin part of present-day Algoma-Manitoulin last went Tory in '85...

[DistingFlyer]

Looking at the Tory gains, here's when they last won those ridings (or their nearest equivalents):

Brampton Centre - 1999
Brampton East - 1999 (as Bramalea - Gore - Malton - Springdale)
Brampton North - 1999 (as Brampton Centre)
Essex - 1959 (as Essex South)
Hamilton East - Stoney Creek - 1951 (as Wentworth)
Thunder Bay - Atikokan - 1985 (as Fort William)
Timmins - 1987 (as Cochrane South)
Windsor - Tecumseh - 1929 (as Essex North)
York South - Weston - 1951 (as York South)

Interesting. Taking note of adma's post When did the following ridings (or nearest equivalents) last go Tory provincially?
Niagara Falls
Niagara Centre
Nickel Belt
Timmins Cochrane
Algoma Manitoulin

Algoma - Manitoulin: one could say 1985 (the last time a riding of that name voted Tory), but a better answer might be 1971 (when they won both Algoma & Algoma - Manitoulin, which together account for most of the current riding)
Niagara Centre: 1971 (as Welland)
Niagara Falls: 1999
Nickel Belt: 1967
Timiskaming - Cochrane: 1981 (as two ridings: Timiskaming and Cochrane South)


Looking at Northern Ontario as a whole, the last time the Tories topped the polls there before 2022 was 1985 (when, I assume, Muskoka member Frank Miller being the party's leader helped them there, and their vote actually stayed the same as in 1981). That's still the last time they elected the most MPPs there, as the NDP stayed ahead in seats in 2022.

Other times they won the north were 1948 (albeit only 33.6% in a close three-way race), 1951 (43.4%, with the Liberals second), 1955 (46.8%), 1959 (42.2%), 1963 (44.0%), 1967 (40.6%, with the NDP back ahead of the Liberals for the first time since 1948), 1971 (40.7%), 1977 (42.8%) and 1981 (44.8%). They also nearly did so in 1995 (34.3% to the Liberals' 34.5%).

[Krago]

Dumb question.  Where I can I find the most up-to-date Ontario election results by riding and candidate?

I downloaded each riding from Elections Ontario, but Canadian Press seems to have more polls reporting (e.g. Burlington).  But CP is missing data for some minor party candidates.

Any suggestions?

Strange - the Elections Ontario figures were up-to-date yesterday (that is, each seat had all of its polls accounted for) but they don't seem to be now, although the links to the data are different.

My spreadsheet does have the riding information as complete as it can be right now (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=453425.msg8630731#msg8630731) though the minor parties (i.e. not PC, Liberal, NDP or Green) are all lumped into the 'other' column, which may not be what you want.

EDIT: Can also look here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16Yuhrvny4nC9oKoT-0lnAmS3Lhg1Qnm5/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=102460231885619043601&rtpof=true&sd=true); you can see the individual candidates' votes in the 'other' column, but not their party names.

Thank you very much.

In the second spreadsheet, it looks like Paul Miller's 2,411 votes in Hamilton East--Stoney Creek were missed.

[DistingFlyer]

Dumb question.  Where I can I find the most up-to-date Ontario election results by riding and candidate?

I downloaded each riding from Elections Ontario, but Canadian Press seems to have more polls reporting (e.g. Burlington).  But CP is missing data for some minor party candidates.

Any suggestions?

Strange - the Elections Ontario figures were up-to-date yesterday (that is, each seat had all of its polls accounted for) but they don't seem to be now, although the links to the data are different.

My spreadsheet does have the riding information as complete as it can be right now (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=453425.msg8630731#msg8630731) though the minor parties (i.e. not PC, Liberal, NDP or Green) are all lumped into the 'other' column, which may not be what you want.

EDIT: Can also look here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16Yuhrvny4nC9oKoT-0lnAmS3Lhg1Qnm5/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=102460231885619043601&rtpof=true&sd=true); you can see the individual candidates' votes in the 'other' column, but not their party names.

Thank you very much.

In the second spreadsheet, it looks like Paul Miller's 2,411 votes in Hamilton East--Stoney Creek were missed.

Well spotted! Have fixed both files.

[adma]

Looking at Northern Ontario as a whole, the last time the Tories topped the polls there before 2022 was 1985 (when, I assume, Muskoka member Frank Miller being the party's leader helped them there, and their vote actually stayed the same as in 1981). That's still the last time they elected the most MPPs there, as the NDP stayed ahead in seats in 2022.

What also helped through '85 were strong long-term incumbents like Leo Bernier and Alan Pope, and the vestigial vote of others defeated that year.  Then they in their turn started to retire or be defeated in '87, and by '90 only Harris & Eves were left, while a lot of that erstwhile diehard Northern Tory vote defaulted to Confederation of Regions, who finished ahead of the PCs in 6 and nearly 7 seats.  Harris shifted the equilibrium back to the Tories in '95, but not enough to win because of the damage done over the previous decade...

[DistingFlyer]

Looking at Northern Ontario as a whole, the last time the Tories topped the polls there before 2022 was 1985 (when, I assume, Muskoka member Frank Miller being the party's leader helped them there, and their vote actually stayed the same as in 1981). That's still the last time they elected the most MPPs there, as the NDP stayed ahead in seats in 2022.

What also helped through '85 were strong long-term incumbents like Leo Bernier and Alan Pope, and the vestigial vote of others defeated that year.  Then they in their turn started to retire or be defeated in '87, and by '90 only Harris & Eves were left, while a lot of that erstwhile diehard Northern Tory vote defaulted to Confederation of Regions, who finished ahead of the PCs in 6 and nearly 7 seats.  Harris shifted the equilibrium back to the Tories in '95, but not enough to win because of the damage done over the previous decade...

Agreed - look at what happened in Cochrane South when Alan Pope retired: from 42% in 1987 to 4.2% in 1990.

[mileslunn]

Anyone have breakdown of how regions voted?

I was thinking for main regions

416 - Toronto
905 belt
Hamilton-Niagara
Central Ontario
Southwestern Ontario
Northern Ontario
Eastern Ontario

For sub-regions

Durham
York
Peel
Halton
Hamilton
Niagara
Waterloo
London
Essex County
Ottawa
Eastern Ontario outside Ottawa

I have figures for some of those:

Metro Toronto (416)
PC - 12 MPPs (+1), 32.2% (-0.6%)
NDP - 9 MPPs (-2), 27.9% (-8.6%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 31.9% (+5.7%)

Rest of GTA (905)
PC - 29 MPPs (+3), 46.8% (+1.1%)
NDP - 1 MPP (-3), 14.4% (-12.3%)
Lib - 30.3% (+7.6%)

Eastern
PC - 13 MPPs (-1), 41.2% (-1.4%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 26.8% (+3.7%)
NDP - 2 MPPs, 21.9% (-6.6%)

Northern
NDP - 7 MPPs (-1), 33.4% (-10.9%)
PC - 6 MPPs (+2), 40.5% (+8.3%)
Lib - 11.4% (-4.2%)

The Tory vote dropped the most in Eastern Ontario, as Ottawa continues to drift away from them and the New Blue & Ontario Parties took a bite out of their rural vote.

The Tory vote rose the most in Northern Ontario; in 2018 they went up more than the provincial average (though not the most of any region), illustrating the trend that I've discussed on federal-themed threads here about that region beginning to trend towards the Tories after many years of being weak for them.


Looking at the two biggest blocs, the GTA and the rest, they break down thus:

GTA
PC - 41 MPPs (+4), 40.5% (+0.4%)
NDP - 10 MPPs (-5), 20.2% (-10.7%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 31.0% (+6.8%)

Rest of Ontario
PC - 42 MPPs (+3), 41.1% (+0.3%)
NDP - 21 MPPs (-4), 26.3% (-9.4%)
Lib - 4 MPPs, 18.6% (+2.6%)

What was Southwestern Ontario?