Ontario Election 2022

[Benjamin Frank]

The NDP achieved the rare result in FPTP of an opposition party whose percent of seats exceeded its percent of votes. The NDP won exactly 25% of the seats (31/124) with 23.7% of the vote.  

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I just love that Ontarians reacting with the normal "I'm leaving" decleration keep naming more right wing places like Alberta or Sasketchwan as their destination.

[Pericles]

The NDP achieved the rare result in FPTP of an opposition party whose percent of seats exceeded its percent of votes. The NDP won exactly 25% of the seats (31/124) with 23.7% of the vote.  

At the moment, the Liberals are on 23.8%. They probably deserve to do so badly seat wise with a decent vote share, I wonder if it will matter at all for the NDP though.

[DC Al Fine]

FPTP is a fickle mistress for the Liberals.

[Flyersfan232]

The Douggler wins again

[toaster]

Timmins: Surprised the polling got it so wrong.  the PCs promised the world to them (return of the ONTC, new French Health Centre, reconstruction of HWY 101).  Ford had it out for Bisson, and threw anything at the riding that would stick and it paid off.

Brampton Ridings: People of Brampton want HWY 413.

Etobicoke-Lakeshore being so close doesn't surprise me, it's a very different riding than it was even 10 years ago. Many renters along the lakeshore, at at Humber Bay. Although I thought the ONDP would be closer, not the Libs.

Thunder Bay: Interesting, although Lise V is cut from the same cloth as Michael Gravelle. Judith MF never really seemed to be a good communicator or naturally born speaker, so not surprised she didn't win again.

Andrea's defeat speech was the best speech she's ever given.  Why didn't she run that way?  Spoke from the heart.  In fact, the way all the candidates were so respectful at the end of the night gives me hope for Ontario Politics in the future.  I wish it would have been like this on the campaign.

[CumbrianLefty]

I just love that Ontarians reacting with the normal "I'm leaving" decleration keep naming more right wing places like Alberta or Sasketchwan as their destination.

Do lots of people still think Sask is innately left wing?

Alberta *is* going that way tbf, but from a distinctly right wing starting point.

[adma]

I'm sure this has been said here already in this thread, but I haven't read the election day comments, and it fits here. I think the NDP shold be very pleased with their seat total, but very disappointed with their vote total, dropping from around 34% to 24% of the vote.

I don't know about "very" disappointed--as I've said before, they're used to this.  And even I was preparing, at the beginning of the writ period, for this kind of low-to-mid-20s "reversion to upper mean", and I stated as much.

Even Andrea's resignation seems to be on an "up" kind of "down note", if a down note is what it is.  As I stated earlier in this thread, even if she lost ground, she was likely to leave her party in a better state than it was in when she assumed the leadership.  And...that's how it played out.  Del Duca was a hard landing; Horwath was a soft landing--she was hardly "humiliated" in the way a lot of naysayers would have it...

Oh sure, but it's still a setback that suggests big time that the NDP upper limits don't include forming a government.

It could, ultimately, *now*, if the OLP implosion (slight return) signals a longer-term paradigm shift.  Particularly as we're dealing with a party w/an eternal deck-stacked-against-it "problem"; which even played out in media coverage this time around--a *lot* of people were invested in the notion of '18 as  a one-time fluke for the NDP, and the way things *actually* turned out carries a bit of a "hey, this wasn't in the script!" about it.  Like, maybe they *should* have taken the NDP seriously--or if not that, maybe they should do so henceforth.  And give up the ghost on the Libs as anything more than a convenient Lib Dem-esque "third leg" where viable.  

On those grounds, I'd claim the result is actually more promising and dynamic for the NDP than it appears.  Heck, early in the race I was speaking of this as a likely "save the furniture, only with a whole lot of furniture" campaign for the NDP--and the result bore that out.  Now with all that furniture saved, it turns out that *they're* in a better position for 2026--a "long game" which the OLP thought was *theirs* to play.

And besides, as I've said time over, putting too many zero-sum eggs in the "form government" basket is the electoral equivalent to letting a programmed-in GPS coordinate substitute for real geographic knowledge, or curiosity about the lay-of-the-land journey.  But programmed GPS coordinates provide the same thing as electoral victory: the satisfaction of "clarity" to those who are bamboozled by ambiguity...

[adma]

Timmins: Surprised the polling got it so wrong.  the PCs promised the world to them (return of the ONTC, new French Health Centre, reconstruction of HWY 101).  Ford had it out for Bisson, and threw anything at the riding that would stick and it paid off.

It was always more "promiscuously populist", so I was always skeptical about common assumption that Timmins was a lock for the Dippers.

Brampton Ridings: People of Brampton want HWY 413.

Or, the "Jagmeet NDP" phenomenon was, like Orange Crush Quebec, a bit of a built-upon-quicksand illusion--as the federal party's going downhill in its Brampton seats in '21 demonstrated.

Etobicoke-Lakeshore being so close doesn't surprise me, it's a very different riding than it was even 10 years ago. Many renters along the lakeshore, at at Humber Bay. Although I thought the ONDP would be closer, not the Libs.

Sort of surprises me against the "bigger picture" here.  Maybe the emerging B-EY of the West?

Thunder Bay: Interesting, although Lise V is cut from the same cloth as Michael Gravelle. Judith MF never really seemed to be a good communicator or naturally born speaker, so not surprised she didn't win again.

Well, I warned of the "Liberal Lakehead" illusion potentially being just that--an illusion.

Andrea's defeat speech was the best speech she's ever given.  Why didn't she run that way?  Spoke from the heart.  In fact, the way all the candidates were so respectful at the end of the night gives me hope for Ontario Politics in the future.  I wish it would have been like this on the campaign.

In a way, I wonder if she was planning all along for such a speech that evening, even though she maintained leadership through the election as a steady hand on the tiller...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For the NDP it's a bad result but the sort of bad result that leaves them as the only realistic viable alternative government, so may actually position them quite well in the medium term. Last time that happened in Ontario they won the next election. For the Liberals it's a complete catastrophe, a result that calls into question their relevance as a serious force in provincial politics. To an extent this means it's also 1999 with the roles of the opposition parties switched, except that it's a much bigger PC win.

[DL]

For the NDP while winning power obviously would have been nice, this election will sow some seeds for the future. First of all 31 seats is definitely at the high end of expectations and having the Liberla slope official party status again is a major blow to their viability as a party. This is the first time the Ontario NDP or it’s Ccf predecessor has been official opposition in two consecutive elections and the NDP caucus is loaded with viable potential successors to Horwath such as Marit Stiles, Jamie West, Catherine Fife and maybe others. For the OLP it’s a catastrophe. No one in their caucus looks like leadership material and they did so badly and are so broke that no “big name” is likely to want to swoop in from Ottawa to take over the helm

[lilTommy]

Andrea was going to step down regardless of how well the ONDP was going to do; The 31 seats puts them in a fairly strong position especially given what the perceived expectation was.
I also thought Andrea's speech was her best, THIS was the Horwath we needed to see at the debates.

The ONDP can breath a sigh of relief that they held Oshawa and Niagara Centre, they were close but they held on and they needed that! French and Burch should be given more prominent roles in order to boost the ONDP presence among industrial/working ridings. Ford massively pushed in these ridings and it payed off in gaining Essex and Windsor-Tecumseh.
St.Catharines I thought would be weaker for the ONDP, but they gained 3% off the OLP. It was the reverse in Niagara Centre where the NDP dropped 5% and OLP gained. The PCs vote stayed about the same in both seats.

Hamilton East - Paul Miller cost the ONDP the seat, the OLP too, but I think mostly it was Paul's sticking around as an f'u to the ONDP.

I'm pleasantly surprised at how well the ONDP did in central TO; Incumbency mattered here, although I thought BEY would be a bigger win for the OLP, had the ONDP nominated a stronger, more well known candidate they could have held it maybe. I also thought TSt.Pauls would go Liberal but I'm happy it did not, Andrew's is a very active and likeable person, so held it on her merit I think. I also thought Uni.Rosedale would be tough; a Green star candidate and a huge OLP turf in Rosedale. YSW would have been held by the ONDP had a Ford not run, it was much closer then I thought. I had HRBC also being lost by the ONDP but here we are. SFY being over 45% for the ONDP is a good vote, again the incumbency worked here. TC goes to show that, probably especially Cabbagetown is a strong OLP voting block, even with a star ONDP candidate. ScarboroughSW was the only seat where the ONDP saw a gain, about 2%; TorDan, PHP and Davenport are now plus 55%ish instead of plus 60%ish
Toronto has split though, in the Core you have the ONDP as the main progressive vote but Etobicoke and most of Scarborough and North York swung back to the OLP coming in second. Incumbents and the Core Progressives will much more easily swing OLP-ONDP depending on who looks to win, and with the ONDP and OLP at 23% provincewide, TO is split too.

Ottawa West - awesome, the ONDP gained 5% but the PCs also gained about 2%, this was one of if not the closest riding in 2018. The ONDP ran the same candidate, AND managed to do what they were trying to do provincewide, pull the OLP vote over to win the seat.    

[DistingFlyer]

Safest seat in the province is (once again) Renfrew - Nipissing - Pembroke, John Yakabuski's fiefdom; his majority (44.0%) is down from last time (52.5%), probably due to the two breakaway conservative parties siphoning off some votes (the NDP runner-up's share stayed pretty much the same).

Riding with the highest vote share for a candidate is not Yakabuski's this time, though, but rather Timmins, of all places, where George Pirie took 64.9%.


Best NDP riding - both in margin and vote share - is, for the second time in a row, Hamilton Centre: Andrea Horwath is on 57.3% & a lead of 40.8%. (It was also their best riding in 2011, her first election as party leader.)


Best Liberal riding in terms of majority is Ottawa South, where John Fraser won by 21.4% (and the Tories dropped to third). Best in terms of vote share is neighboring Orleans, won by Stephen Blais with 46.4%; no Liberal got a majority of the vote in this election or the last one.


Should also note that Doug Ford himself improved his share of the vote (52.5% to 55.3%) and majority (27.1% to 31.8%) in Etobicoke Centre. He got the highest share of the vote of any of the leaders, edging out Mike Schreiner's 54.5% in Guelph, but a smaller majority than the Green leader's 34.0%.

[Mike88]

Turnout was dismal, just 43%, a drop of almost 14% compared with 2018. Also, the PC now has a 2/3 majority in the provincial Parliament.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Andrea's defeat speech was the best speech she's ever given.  Why didn't she run that way?  Spoke from the heart.  In fact, the way all the candidates were so respectful at the end of the night gives me hope for Ontario Politics in the future.  I wish it would have been like this on the campaign.

Right? It's kinda sad that the best speech she gave this campaign was the last one of her provincial political career. Although that happens with politicians sometimes, they let their guard down when they realize they got nothing to lose, and speak more from the heart

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I just love that Ontarians reacting with the normal "I'm leaving" decleration keep naming more right wing places like Alberta or Sasketchwan as their destination.

Do lots of people still think Sask is innately left wing?

Alberta *is* going that way tbf, but from a distinctly right wing starting point.

No, and I think those people are uniquely ill-informed. Alberta has a pretty well-known "Canada's Texas" reputation in Ontario - if anything, to the extent of massively overestimating how culturally right-wing Alberta is.

[DL]

I’ve lost count of how many times a politician gives a concession speech and then all the pundits go on and on about how “this was the best speech they ever gave” and “if only they had been like this the whole campaign they could have won the election”. It’s almost becoming a cliche

[MaxQue]

I’ve lost count of how many times a politician gives a concession speech and then all the pundits go on and on about how “this was the best speech they ever gave” and “if only they had been like this the whole campaign they could have won the election”. It’s almost becoming a cliche

Another proof of the nefarious influence of advisers.

[DC Al Fine]

Surprised to see the Liberals barely even budge from their 2018 seat count, let alone not reach official party status. Especially if they're leading the NDP in the popular vote.

Also, who's Bobbi Ann Brady? Equally surprised to see an independent victory.

Employee of the long-term retiring PC MPP. He supports her, as Ford imposed a candidate instead of letting the association choose.

Should also note that the PC candidate was active in the local Liberal association until shortly before being appointed as the PC candidate and had a failed run at the Liberal nomination some years back. That race was ripe territory for an Indy win.

[DL]

Its impressive how much incumbency helped the NDP. The only incumbents to lose were York South-Weston against a Ford - and even there it was very close in the end, a weak incumbent in TB-Atikokan and two in Brampton where you clearly had a bit of a wave happening - and Bisson in Timmins who was sidelined the whole campaign after having a heart attack and was clearly past his prime... Several seats the NDP lost would likely have been retained had incumbents reoffered or not left under a cloud (e.g. Windsor-Tecumseh, Hamilton East, Beaches-East York maybe even Kingston).

I don't think it can be overemphasized just how catastrophic it is for the Ontario Liberals to lose official party status for a second straight election and to have the NDP win downtown Toronto Liberal heartland seats a second time. Having NDP MPPs in Toronto-Centre, Spadina-Fort York, University-Rosedale and even ST. PAUL'S is no longer a fluke - these seats now have two term incumbents (plus a virtual incumbent with KWT).

After the 2018 election one could have imagined some talented people wanting to take over the OLP leadership reasoning that that party has no where to go but up and that 2018 was a once in a lifetime wave election. But after a second consecutive election of the OLP being demolished and left with just 8 seats - who the hell would want to lead that party? and if you look at the 8 people elected as OLP MPPs none of them look like leadership material at all.

The NDP on the other hand has a wealth of potential successors to Horwath who could do very well.   

[DistingFlyer]

The last polls for Kiiwetinoong have come in, turning it into the best riding for the NDP as far as vote share goes (57.6%).

Those last four polls were pretty lopsided: 197 NDP votes, ten Liberal ones, four Tory ones, and two each for the Greens & New Blues.

[King of Kensington]

Since the list is so short, here are the OLP seats:

Beaches-East York
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Kingston and the Islands
Orleans
Ottawa South
Ottawa-Vanier
Scarborough-Guildwood

[DistingFlyer]

Since the list is so short, here are the OLP seats:

Beaches-East York
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Kingston and the Islands
Orleans
Ottawa South
Ottawa-Vanier
Scarborough-Guildwood

Three in Toronto (specifically the 416), three in Ottawa and only one in the rest of the province (Kingston).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Beaches-East York just loves being represented by a member of the third party in the legislature!

_{(Yes, yes, it was a very different area even twenty years ago, I'm aware of that. Still funny!)}

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I’ve lost count of how many times a politician gives a concession speech and then all the pundits go on and on about how “this was the best speech they ever gave” and “if only they had been like this the whole campaign they could have won the election”. It’s almost becoming a cliche

Fair enough, but I will say that about Horwath's speech as a PC voter, certainly not an NDP advisor. I wouldn't say the same about Del Duca's concession speech.

The tragedy of Andrea Horwath I think is that she tries too hard. She comes off very stiff and stringent when giving speeches, and I think that makes it hard for people to be energized by her. Most Ontarians don't hate her (I don't know why the internet is so particularly hostile towards her, polls show that her favourability in Ontario has never been that bad), in my experience people tend to like her as a person, but politicians who don't feel comfortable in their skin don't gain voters' trust. Last night, when Horwath let her guard down, you got to see that she can actually be passionate and energetic in a way she hasn't always been, and passion+energy are needed to energize left-wing voters.

I do think gender plays somewhat of a role in her guardedness though. I mean, women politicians have a lot less leeway when it comes to being seen as "too emotional".

That said, Horwath's legacy isn't a complete failure. In her first three elections as leader, she strengthened the NDP's position in the Ontario legislature. And in her last one, while the NDP lost votes and seats, it was not as bad as expected. She wasn't able to hold off the inevitable blue wave, but she held off the Liberals, a more achievable goal for the NDP in an environment where about 40% of Ontarians approved of the status quo, and many others were either too apathetic to turn out, or ambivalent enough that they were willing to shrug and say "okay, PC it is I guess."

I think Andrea Horwath has a lot to be proud of. Steven Del Duca, not so much.