Ontario Election 2022

[DistingFlyer]

The grimly predictable landslide. Still, the a clear second place finish (it's seats that matter) for the NDP, which positions them better for the future, but they'll need to change a few things to make anything of it.

On this point Horwath has resigned.

And now Del Duca has too.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Strange to see the NDP losing the one Thunder Bay seat they had and picking up the other Thunder Bay seat.

TB (and northern Ontario in general) does weird things sometimes. In the seat they had (Superior North), the incumbent Liberal MPP had to step down because of healthcare issues and they had to find a new candidate last-minute, so their organization may have been weak.

[Central Lake]

If not for Oshawa the 905 would have been aesthetic to look at. Almost a PC sweep.

[Holmes]

Gilles Bisson has lost in Timmins with an absolutely monster swing to the PC.

What's the reason for that? Timmins might be the single largest swing in the province.

A community that's been invaded by drugs will of course vote for the party whose leader obviously does crack.

[DistingFlyer]

Those last two northern ridings (Kiiwetinoong & Algoma - Manitoulin) should start reporting their results in a few minutes; on the basis of the other northern results I'd guess the NDP will keep both but with sharply reduced margins.

With the Grits cleaned out of the north, that leaves Kingston as their only seat outside Ottawa & Metro Toronto.

[Logical]

~30 seats despite losing almost a third of their vote and only 23.5% of the pop vote is incredibly efficient for the ONDP. The federal party can learn a lot from them lol.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Ridings I found interesting:

1. Barrie--Springwater: Surprisingly close, I guess the mayor really is popular. I thought the natural PC-ness of Barrie would make it a pretty easy win.

2. Brampton (all ridings): Very strong PC showing, much stronger than I expected.

3. Eglinton-Lawrence: I honestly didn't buy that this riding would be so close. I thought without Mike Colle, the natural Toryness (by Toronto standards) would make this a decent PC win.

4. Etobicoke-Lakeshore: Surprisingly strong Liberal showing, just called for the PCs though.

5. Haldimand-Norfolk: ...what?

6. Nepean: Liberals are coming surprisingly close here. Between Lisa MacLeod's penchant for controversy and the Liberal candidate Tyler Watt having a compelling personal story and social media game, I can see what happened here

7. Niagara Centre, Oshawa, Toronto-St Paul's: Good on the NDP for holding these, I thought they were goners

8. Ottawa Centre: Wow, Joel Harden really did something here

9. Ottawa West-Nepean: Looks like NDP will pick this up. Between this, Harden winning big in Centre, McLeod not doing super well and Nepean, and the PCs failing to compete in Orleans, we can say for sure that Ottawa has moved much further left from where it used to be just ten years ago.

10. SSM: I thought this was gonna be a much bigger PC win.

11. Scarborough-Rouge Park: Surprisingly big PC win.

12. Scarborough SW: Surprisingly solid PC NDP hold.

13. Both Thunder Bay Ridings: PCs could potentially win both, but it's looking like Superior will be PC and Atikokan will be NDP. Very bad for the Libs to be losing these.

14. Timmins: Wow. Not much more to say than that. I know the PCs had a strong candidate here, but to rout an incumbent like this in a traditional NDP area is insane.

15. Toronto Centre: Still not called. I know TC has a Liberal tradition, but between Rosedale being districted out, the NDP flipping it in 2018, KWT running for the NDP, and the Liberals underperforming, you'd think this one would have been a relatively easy NDP win.

16. Toronto-St. Paul's: Good on Jill Andrew, NDP winning this in 2018 felt like a bit of a fluke, and the Liberals had a decent candidate here.

17. Vaughan-Woodbridge: Ha. Hahaha. Hahahahaha.

18. Windsor-Tecumseh: Similar reaction as Timmins, I'm not surprised to see it go PC but I thought it would at least be close.

19. York South-Weston: Michael Ford won, but Faisal Hassan for the NDP had a pretty good night, coming very close. I thought he would finish third.

[adma]

If not for Oshawa the 905 would have been aesthetic to look at. Almost a PC sweep.

And as proof of the power of incumbency, for Oshawa *and* Niagara Centre to hang on for the NDP despite their being low-hanging blue-collar-Con fruit shows that maybe "worker Dipperism" isn't *completely* down for the count.  (But yeah, incumbency.)

[adma]

Given the Lib Dem-ness of a lot of the second-place Liberal results, I was thinking of Del Duca as the Jo Swinson of Ontario politics...

[Central Lake]

Bit surprised by how well CONs did in Windsor Tecumseh

[Benjamin Frank]

If not for Oshawa the 905 would have been aesthetic to look at. Almost a PC sweep.

They swept in 1995 and 1999.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, a very good night for the NDP considering expectations. It really helps to have the power of incumbency. Except if you're Gilles Bisson, or in Brampton.

Obviously Thunder Bay is the biggest shocker of the night. Huge win in Ottawa West-Nepean, too. Less of a surprise. The NDP continues to do better in Ottawa every election. The NDP hasn't won more than 1 seat in Ottawa since 1977. I'm also ecstatic the NDP is headed for second place in my riding of Ottawa South. First time since 1990 (when the riding had more left wing neighbourhoods). Toronto was also a pleasant surprise, holding on to St. Paul's and Humber River-Black Creek.

Sad to see the Singhs lose in Brampton.

Obviously there are some concerns for the NDP going ahead. Any riding where an incumbent steps down is automatically vulnerable. I guess Hamilton East and Windsor-Tecumseh are no longer tier 1 NDP seats.  

[Benjamin Frank]

Ridings I found interesting:

1. Barrie--Springwater: Surprisingly close, I guess the mayor really is popular. I thought the natural PC-ness of Barrie would make it a pretty easy win.

Lehman won the mayoralty in both 2014 and 2018 with around 90% of the vote.

[Benjamin Frank]

Wow, a very good night for the NDP considering expectations. It really helps to have the power of incumbency. Except if you're Gilles Bisson, or in Brampton.

Obviously Thunder Bay is the biggest shocker of the night. Huge win in Ottawa West-Nepean, too. Less of a surprise. The NDP continues to do better in Ottawa every election. The NDP hasn't won more than 1 seat in Ottawa since 1977. I'm also ecstatic the NDP is headed for second place in my riding of Ottawa South. First time since 1990 (when the riding had more left wing neighbourhoods). Toronto was also a pleasant surprise, holding on to St. Paul's and Humber River-Black Creek.

Sad to see the Singhs lose in Brampton.

Obviously there are some concerns for the NDP going ahead. Any riding where an incumbent steps down is automatically vulnerable. I guess Hamilton East and Windsor-Tecumseh are no longer tier 1 NDP seats.  

I'm sure this has been said here already in this thread, but I haven't read the election day comments, and it fits here. I think the NDP shold be very pleased with their seat total, but very disappointed with their vote total, dropping from around 34% to 24% of the vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ridings I found interesting:

1. Barrie--Springwater: Surprisingly close, I guess the mayor really is popular. I thought the natural PC-ness of Barrie would make it a pretty easy win.

Lehman won the mayoralty in both 2014 and 2018 with around 90% of the vote.

I know we like to sh*t on riding polls, but there were a couple that showed Lehman winning. Of course, I didn't believe them because the Liberals have never won either cracked Barrie seat before, and I know the area tends to over-poll for the Liberals.

[Benjamin Frank]

Ridings I found interesting:

1. Barrie--Springwater: Surprisingly close, I guess the mayor really is popular. I thought the natural PC-ness of Barrie would make it a pretty easy win.

Lehman won the mayoralty in both 2014 and 2018 with around 90% of the vote.

I know we like to sh*t on riding polls, but there were a couple that showed Lehman winning. Of course, I didn't believe them because the Liberals have never won either cracked Barrie seat before, and I know the area tends to over-poll for the Liberals.

Wiki mentioned that he declined running for the Liberal leadership in 2020. Irrespective of all else, the P.Cs winning because they morphed into centrist liberals and all the other theories, I have to think electing a leader who was both part of the previous government and did not hold a seat to be seen in opposition in the legislature, was the worst choice the Liberals could have made.

[DL]

The biggest losers of the night:

Riding polls by Mainstreet and Forum. Many were wildly off
Polly sh**t the bed

[Hatman 🍁]

More on the NDP in Ottawa.... Joel Harden beat Paul Dewar's high mark in 2011, winning 54% of the vote (Dewar only got 52% then). Looks like turnout made the difference. Ottawa Centre is known for very large turnouts (especially in federal elections), but only 55% showed up. Liberals stayed home.

[DL]

More on the NDP in Ottawa.... Joel Harden beat Paul Dewar's high mark in 2011, winning 54% of the vote (Dewar only got 52% then). Looks like turnout made the difference. Ottawa Centre is known for very large turnouts (especially in federal elections), but only 55% showed up. Liberals stayed home.

Someone said to me “Liberals only vote when they are either enthusiastic or scared” and this time they were neither

This was one night when the NDp managed to run the tables on close races. They won the vast majority of close races they were involved in

[Hatman 🍁]

More on the NDP in Ottawa.... Joel Harden beat Paul Dewar's high mark in 2011, winning 54% of the vote (Dewar only got 52% then). Looks like turnout made the difference. Ottawa Centre is known for very large turnouts (especially in federal elections), but only 55% showed up. Liberals stayed home.

Someone said to me “Liberals only vote when they are either enthusiastic or scared” and this time they were neither

This was one night when the NDp managed to run the tables on close races. They won the vast majority of close races they were involved in

Yeah, I kept thinking the NDP would drop into the mid 20s all night due to the close races. Nope!

[Benjamin Frank]

More on the NDP in Ottawa.... Joel Harden beat Paul Dewar's high mark in 2011, winning 54% of the vote (Dewar only got 52% then). Looks like turnout made the difference. Ottawa Centre is known for very large turnouts (especially in federal elections), but only 55% showed up. Liberals stayed home.

Someone said to me “Liberals only vote when they are either enthusiastic or scared” and this time they were neither

This was one night when the NDp managed to run the tables on close races. They won the vast majority of close races they were involved in

It looks like only around 5 million voted which is about 800,000 less voters than in 2018.

[adma]

Wow, a very good night for the NDP considering expectations. It really helps to have the power of incumbency. Except if you're Gilles Bisson, or in Brampton.

Obviously Thunder Bay is the biggest shocker of the night. Huge win in Ottawa West-Nepean, too. Less of a surprise. The NDP continues to do better in Ottawa every election. The NDP hasn't won more than 1 seat in Ottawa since 1977. I'm also ecstatic the NDP is headed for second place in my riding of Ottawa South. First time since 1990 (when the riding had more left wing neighbourhoods). Toronto was also a pleasant surprise, holding on to St. Paul's and Humber River-Black Creek.

Sad to see the Singhs lose in Brampton.

Obviously there are some concerns for the NDP going ahead. Any riding where an incumbent steps down is automatically vulnerable. I guess Hamilton East and Windsor-Tecumseh are no longer tier 1 NDP seats.  

I'm sure this has been said here already in this thread, but I haven't read the election day comments, and it fits here. I think the NDP shold be very pleased with their seat total, but very disappointed with their vote total, dropping from around 34% to 24% of the vote.

I don't know about "very" disappointed--as I've said before, they're used to this.  And even I was preparing, at the beginning of the writ period, for this kind of low-to-mid-20s "reversion to upper mean", and I stated as much.

Even Andrea's resignation seems to be on an "up" kind of "down note", if a down note is what it is.  As I stated earlier in this thread, even if she lost ground, she was likely to leave her party in a better state than it was in when she assumed the leadership.  And...that's how it played out.  Del Duca was a hard landing; Horwath was a soft landing--she was hardly "humiliated" in the way a lot of naysayers would have it...

[adma]

The biggest losers of the night:

Riding polls by Mainstreet and Forum. Many were wildly off
Polly sh**t the bed

I guess Election Prediction Project as well (though that could have been predicted).  Or generally, *any* big ominous media establishment pundit types overstating the "2nd place Liberal" narrative...

[Benjamin Frank]

Wow, a very good night for the NDP considering expectations. It really helps to have the power of incumbency. Except if you're Gilles Bisson, or in Brampton.

Obviously Thunder Bay is the biggest shocker of the night. Huge win in Ottawa West-Nepean, too. Less of a surprise. The NDP continues to do better in Ottawa every election. The NDP hasn't won more than 1 seat in Ottawa since 1977. I'm also ecstatic the NDP is headed for second place in my riding of Ottawa South. First time since 1990 (when the riding had more left wing neighbourhoods). Toronto was also a pleasant surprise, holding on to St. Paul's and Humber River-Black Creek.

Sad to see the Singhs lose in Brampton.

Obviously there are some concerns for the NDP going ahead. Any riding where an incumbent steps down is automatically vulnerable. I guess Hamilton East and Windsor-Tecumseh are no longer tier 1 NDP seats.  

I'm sure this has been said here already in this thread, but I haven't read the election day comments, and it fits here. I think the NDP shold be very pleased with their seat total, but very disappointed with their vote total, dropping from around 34% to 24% of the vote.

I don't know about "very" disappointed--as I've said before, they're used to this.  And even I was preparing, at the beginning of the writ period, for this kind of low-to-mid-20s "reversion to upper mean", and I stated as much.

Even Andrea's resignation seems to be on an "up" kind of "down note", if a down note is what it is.  As I stated earlier in this thread, even if she lost ground, she was likely to leave her party in a better state than it was in when she assumed the leadership.  And...that's how it played out.  Del Duca was a hard landing; Horwath was a soft landing--she was hardly "humiliated" in the way a lot of naysayers would have it...

Oh sure, but it's still a setback that suggests big time that the NDP upper limits don't include forming a government.

[King of Kensington]

Interesting how of the inner Toronto seats, Beaches is the Liberal exception, not St. Paul's (though Rima Berns-McGown would likely have held the seat if she ran again).  In some ways that may actually be more "demographically correct" given that St. Paul's has more renters and apartment dwellers and is closer to the downtown core.  It has shifted significantly leftward.