Ontario Election 2022

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The PCs inch closer and closer to certain majority territory.

They were pretty much there already. Even with their support dropping since the last election, the gap between them and the strongest progressive party always seemed greater than in 2018, and that's the more relevant number as far as majority vs minority is concerned. Remember in 2018, the Tory-NDP gap was 7 points. Going by 338Canada's numbers, the PC-Liberal gap (Liberals being the second party in their popular vote projection) is 11 pts

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

My hot take: the New Blue + OP + other dissident right wing parties combined will have a better showing in Ontario than the PPC did. My reasoning? It's basically a foregone conclusion that Ford's got this in the bag, and not just among political junkies, everyone seems to say this. The motivation to stop the left (or in the federal election, to get Trudeau out of power) just isn't there to dissuade dissident right-wingers. Additionally, I'm guessing this will be a low-turnout election, but angry people vote.

[brucejoel99]

My hot take: the New Blue + OP + other dissident right wing parties combined will have a better showing in Ontario than the PPC did. My reasoning? It's basically a foregone conclusion that Ford's got this in the bag, and not just among political junkies, everyone seems to say this. The motivation to stop the left (or in the federal election, to get Trudeau out of power) just isn't there to dissuade dissident right-wingers. Additionally, I'm guessing this will be a low-turnout election, but angry people vote.

Yeah, compared to New Blue's, the PPC's existence was pretty much completely unwarranted beyond soothing Bernier's ego because there was no need for an alternative conservative party when the mainstream conservative party wasn't even in power to begin with, whereas at least New Blue is protesting an incumbent conservative government, so New Blue has the benefits of timing, optics, & opportunity that the PPC didn't, such as they're "benefits," since they'll be electing 0 MPPs.

[adma]

My hot take: the New Blue + OP + other dissident right wing parties combined will have a better showing in Ontario than the PPC did. My reasoning? It's basically a foregone conclusion that Ford's got this in the bag, and not just among political junkies, everyone seems to say this. The motivation to stop the left (or in the federal election, to get Trudeau out of power) just isn't there to dissuade dissident right-wingers. Additionally, I'm guessing this will be a low-turnout election, but angry people vote.

Yeah, compared to New Blue's, the PPC's existence was pretty much completely unwarranted beyond soothing Bernier's ego because there was no need for an alternative conservative party when the mainstream conservative party wasn't even in power to begin with, whereas at least New Blue is protesting an incumbent conservative government, so New Blue has the benefits of timing, optics, & opportunity that the PPC didn't, such as they're "benefits," since they'll be electing 0 MPPs.

Except that New Blue et al haven't trolled their way to the spotlight nearly as effectively as PPC--partly it's the pandemic being more rear-view now than during the federal election; partly it's Doug Ford being less of a tempting target than Justin Trudeau; partly it's the lack of a rock-star leader-of-a-cause a la Bernier, and of course several parties dividing the spoils as opposed to the monolith that was PPC.  I mean, you don't find people wearing New Blue regalia as a badge the same way you found PPC supporters doing.

If there's a better showing for these forces, it's in the same way that dissident parties have *always* tended to do better provincially than federally.  (Some might even argue the NDP being among that bunch.)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The Final Legar is brutal, PC's at 40% with NDP, would be an absoulte wipeout if that actualy happend.

[DL]

The Final Legar is brutal, PC's at 40% with NDP, would be an absoulte wipeout if that actualy happend.

The final Leger has the PCs at 40%, OLP at 25% and NDP at 24%...if that actually happened the Liberals would be stuck in the low teens in seats and the NDP would definitely still be official opposition

[Krago]

The Final Legar is brutal, PC's at 40% with NDP, would be an absoulte wipeout if that actualy happend.

The final Leger has the PCs at 40%, OLP at 25% and NDP at 24%...if that actually happened the Liberals would be stuck in the low teens in seats and the NDP would definitely still be official opposition

https://leger360.com/voting-intentions/provincial-politics-in-ontario-june-1-2022/

[Central Lake]

Touching 40% is a good sign from a conservative standpoint.

[brucejoel99]

The Final Legar is brutal, PC's at 40% with NDP, would be an absoulte wipeout if that actualy happend.

The final Leger has the PCs at 40%, OLP at 25% and NDP at 24%...if that actually happened the Liberals would be stuck in the low teens in seats and the NDP would definitely still be official opposition

https://leger360.com/voting-intentions/provincial-politics-in-ontario-june-1-2022/

And this is before the PCs even beat their polling & the NDP underperforms theirs, as is tradition.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Abacus is also showing the PCs hitting 40% and ahead in all regions, including the 416. Libs at 27, NDP at 22. Slightly less commanding of a lead than Leger, but still, a 40-27-22 election would give Ford a noticeably bigger majority than in 2018 (and depending on how vote-efficiency works out, the NDP could still form official opposition with those numbers).

Additionally, Ford has the best net impression of all leaders (-1), although he's basically statistically tied with Horwath and Schreiner on this measure. Del Duca's impression is not good, 24% say positive and 36% negative for a net impression of -12, that's not good.

One other tidbit: I always find it interesting how some people answer polls in seemingly nonsensical ways. Among the Ontarians who think Ford has been a "great" premier (the best you could rank him in a scale of five options), 13% say they would vote Liberal...why?? I can imagine someone saying "he's been okay/good but the Liberals are better", but great is a pretty strong word

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Abacus is also showing the PCs hitting 40% and ahead in all regions, including the 416. Libs at 27, NDP at 22. Slightly less commanding of a lead than Leger, but still, a 40-27-22 election would give Ford a noticeably bigger majority than in 2018 (and depending on how vote-efficiency works out, the NDP could still form official opposition with those numbers).

Additionally, Ford has the best net impression of all leaders (-1), although he's basically statistically tied with Horwath and Schreiner on this measure. Del Duca's impression is not good, 24% say positive and 36% negative for a net impression of -12, that's not good.

One other tidbit: I always find it interesting how some people answer polls in seemingly nonsensical ways. Among the Ontarians who think Ford has been a "great" premier (the best you could rank him in a scale of five options), 13% say they would vote Liberal...why?? I can imagine someone saying "he's been okay/good but the Liberals are better", but great is a pretty strong word

Hardcore ford nation people whore also hardcore liberal voters ?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think the stage is set for Ford to win even bigger than the polls are suggesting. When broken down by age, PCs consistently poll way, way better with older voters than younger voters, more of an age divide than centre-right parties normally have in Ontario. This is likely to be a low-turnout election, and old people vote. The Liberals are polling better than the NDP, but people don't like Del Duca, and leader favourability can affect motivation to turn out. This election could give Ford a bigger majority than Mike Harris and Bill Davis were ever able to win.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Abacus is also showing the PCs hitting 40% and ahead in all regions, including the 416. Libs at 27, NDP at 22. Slightly less commanding of a lead than Leger, but still, a 40-27-22 election would give Ford a noticeably bigger majority than in 2018 (and depending on how vote-efficiency works out, the NDP could still form official opposition with those numbers).

Additionally, Ford has the best net impression of all leaders (-1), although he's basically statistically tied with Horwath and Schreiner on this measure. Del Duca's impression is not good, 24% say positive and 36% negative for a net impression of -12, that's not good.

One other tidbit: I always find it interesting how some people answer polls in seemingly nonsensical ways. Among the Ontarians who think Ford has been a "great" premier (the best you could rank him in a scale of five options), 13% say they would vote Liberal...why?? I can imagine someone saying "he's been okay/good but the Liberals are better", but great is a pretty strong word

Hardcore ford nation people whore also hardcore liberal voters ?

I'd imagine those voters to be LPC voters, but OLP? I mean, if you're "hardcore Ford Nation", it seems to me that there's a pretty obvious choice in this election (hint: it's the one literally led by Doug Ford, lol). But who knows, people make weird decisions sometimes.

[DistingFlyer]

Prediction time, I guess:

PC - 80 MPPs (40%)
NDP - 28 MPPs (23.5%)
Lib - 15 MPPs (25.5%)
GP - 1 MPP


Didn't do too badly last time (forecast was PC 72 & 40%, NDP 44 & 35.5% and Lib 8 & 20%); hopefully I'm pretty close here too.

(Updated 2 Jun, four hours before polls closed)

[brucejoel99]

Prediction time, I guess:

A blowout win for Ford; the OLP gets official status but not OO, & Del Duca loses his riding & resigns as leader; Horwath resigns as leader; the night's only highlight is the underdog Green effort beating the PC machine in Parry Sound-Muskoka:

PCs - 88 MPPs (40.8%)
NDP - 20 MPPs (22%)
OLP - 14 MPPs (26.2%)
GPO - 2 MPPs (6%)

[DL]

According to the final it seems like the PCs have been gaining and the Liberals have been trending down in the homestretch and the NDP trending up just a tad.

Final poll by Ipsos says its PC 40, NDP 25, Libs 24.
Nanos says its PC 38, Libs 26, NDP 25.
Mainstreet has it PC 35, Libs 26, NDP 24
Leger has it PC 40 Libs 25 and NDP 24
Frank Graves of Ekos has tweeted that he also has the PCs way ahead with the NDP and Liberals deadlocked at 25% each.

The NDP vote tends to be much more efficient than the Liberal vote (e.g. in the 2011 federal election when Harper won big the NDP and Liberals each took 25% in Ontario but that gave the NDP 22 seats and the Liberals just 11.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Prediction time, I guess:

PC - 78 MPPs (40%)
NDP - 28 MPPs (23.5%)
Lib - 17 MPPs (27%)
GP - 1 MPP


Didn't do too badly last time (forecast was PC 72 & 40%, NDP 44 & 35.5% and Lib 8 & 20%); hopefully I'm pretty close here too.

PC - 86 (+10), 38% (-3)
NDP - 22 (-18), 22% (-12)
Lib - 15 (+8), 26% (+6)
GP - 1 (-), 7% (+2)

7% vote and no seats for "others", primarily New Blue and a scattering of other fringe parties. There seem to be a lot of minor parties running this time around.

I say Del Duca narrowly wins his seat, but the only red seat in the 905. NDP holds onto Brampton East but loses their other seats in Brampton and Oshawa.

[DL]

My prediction is as follows:

PC - 82 (+6), 38% (-3)
NDP - 26 (-14), 24% (-10)
Lib - 15 (+8), 25% (+6)
GP - 1 (-), 7% (+2)

[jaichind]

PC - 79 (37%)
NDP - 28  (24%)
Lib - 16 (27%)
GP - 1 (5%)

[Oryxslayer]

My only prediction will be that the Libs get more seats than everyone expects here, even though Ford still waltzes back into office. This is because Liberal vote efficiency is better than what everyone expects it to be, mainly cause the baseline of 2018 is a bad indicator of the base vote in many areas, and a rebound disproportionately affects specific types of seats.

[DistingFlyer]

My only prediction will be that the Libs get more seats than everyone expects here, even though Ford still waltzes back into office. This is because Liberal vote efficiency is better than what everyone expects it to be, mainly cause the baseline of 2017 is a bad indicator of the base vote in many areas, and a rebound disproportionately affect specific types of seats.

Had the Liberals been the clear favorite vis-a-vis the NDP I would agree (as happened federally in 2015), but I'm not so sure here. Still betting we'll get a repeat of 1948/1975, where the NDP comes third in votes but still gets Official Opposition.

[King of Kensington]

What happens in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek? 

[King of Kensington]

Or Thunder Bay, no idea what's going on there.

[mileslunn]

According to the final it seems like the PCs have been gaining and the Liberals have been trending down in the homestretch and the NDP trending up just a tad.

Final poll by Ipsos says its PC 40, NDP 25, Libs 24.
Nanos says its PC 38, Libs 26, NDP 25.
Mainstreet has it PC 35, Libs 26, NDP 24
Leger has it PC 40 Libs 25 and NDP 24
Frank Graves of Ekos has tweeted that he also has the PCs way ahead with the NDP and Liberals deadlocked at 25% each.

The NDP vote tends to be much more efficient than the Liberal vote (e.g. in the 2011 federal election when Harper won big the NDP and Liberals each took 25% in Ontario but that gave the NDP 22 seats and the Liberals just 11.

I would say Liberal vote is more evenly spread out so when leading in the polls they are more efficient.  Its why they can get over 75 seats with as little as a 5 point lead.  But when behind especially sub 30%, then really bad for them.  NDP at least has enough core areas that even if sub 20% they can still get 15-20 seats whereas Liberals at 20% fall to single digits and even at 25% only in teens not 20s. 

[adma]

My only prediction will be that the Libs get more seats than everyone expects here, even though Ford still waltzes back into office. This is because Liberal vote efficiency is better than what everyone expects it to be, mainly cause the baseline of 2017 is a bad indicator of the base vote in many areas, and a rebound disproportionately affect specific types of seats.

Had the Liberals been the clear favorite vis-a-vis the NDP I would agree (as happened federally in 2015), but I'm not so sure here. Still betting we'll get a repeat of 1948/1975, where the NDP comes third in votes but still gets Official Opposition.

It'd also require a clearer collapse for the NDP than final polling's indicated thus far: breaching that aforementioned 20% "threshold of doom", IOW.

You'd be likelier to see a circumstance where *all* Mississauga seats vote like the Sousa-skewed Mississauga-Lakeshore did in '18.  And too many of the apparent lowest-hanging Lib pickups are merely sideways grabs from the NDP where the Tories are off-radar; so to vote Lib simply to "stop the Tories" is ironically redundant there...